Yang Zhang and Xintong Chen’s “Beyond a Linear Relationship: Revisiting Minority Representation Hypotheses with a Semiparametric Approach” explores how changes in minority population size relate to substantive representation in the U.S. House. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Beyond a Linear Relationship: Revisiting Minority Representation Hypotheses with a Semiparametric Approach

Standard methods often overlook non-linear complexities in the relationship between minority population size and substantive representation. To address this, we introduce spline regression and shap...

tandfonline.com

Following up from my post yesterday, @wrigleyfield.bsky.social asked whether the Wyoming Freedom Caucus’ primary losses were Caucus specific or were part of a general anti-incumbency trend. 1/4

Matthew Green@mattngreen.bsky.social · 2w ago

This is big news, given that the Wyoming House Freedom Caucus had been - up to this point - one of the largest and most influential of state FCs in the country: cowboystatedaily.com/2026/08/19/n...

This is big news, given that the Wyoming House Freedom Caucus had been - up to this point - one of the largest and most influential of state FCs in the country: cowboystatedaily.com/2026/08/19/n...

Near-Total Massacre For Freedom Caucus In Wyoming Primary

Tuesday marked a rough night for the Wyoming Freedom Caucus, as its members and allies fell to a slew of legislative newcomers in the Republican primary…

cowboystatedaily.com

Fully *a fifth* of Wyoming house incumbents (13 / 62) lost their primaries in a big backlash against the hard right caucus. Even more as a share of incumbents running (45). I don't have hard numbers for comparison, but that's got to be pretty far up there for any state chamber, historically.

Adam M. McMahon's article, "Foreign Policy Scandal, Presidential Impeachment, and Unitary Executive Theory," explores the constitutional and political implications of executive power during times of crisis. Read the article here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Election forecasts ask what share of the electorate will vote in November. They rarely ask who is still in the pool by Election Day. A new guest post at Mischiefs of Faction from Jiyue Wang. misofact.substack.com/p/the-2026-m...

The 2026 midterms have a missing-electorate problem

Before asking who will show up in November, ask who is still in the pool

misofact.substack.com

Wow. Writing about John Leganski's book about Speaker McCarthy, @mattngreen.bsky.social unknowingly validates my forthcoming book on political capital, saying getting elected Speaker means focusing “almost exclusively on “member-to-member connection(s).” 🎯 misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-hag...

How to Haggle your Way to the Speakership

John Leganski’s account of his time working for Congressman Kevin McCarthy sheds some light on why the House GOP has become so difficult to lead.

misofact.substack.com

I finally went to the Great American State Fair on the Mall (on Friday, the last day). My impressions: 1/x

Nice explainer from @mattngreen.bsky.social at @misofact.bsky.social on some weird behavior by House Republicans. Also, the quote of the week from Rep. Bacon (R-NE). open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Bicameralism is a Drag

The eternal frustration of trying to get the other chamber to do what you want.

open.substack.com

Bicameralism has long frustrated lawmakers. House Republicans who torpedoed their party's agenda this week are just the latest. A new post from @mattngreen.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/bicamerali...

We're proud to see research published in Congress & the Presidency featured in a recent NYT opinion essay on congressional polarization. The piece cites Gary Jacobson's influential work on how polarization among political elites and voters can become "interactive and mutually reinforcing."

Ryan Bookstein and Kristina C. Miler investigate patterns of party defection in Senate confirmations of executive nominees, offering new insights into legislative behavior and executive-legislative relations. Take a look here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Party Defection in Senate Confirmations of Executive Nominees

Legislative-executive relations are generally portrayed as partisan and combative. The conventional wisdom is that Senate confirmation votes follow party lines, but the reality is different. Based ...

tandfonline.com

@mattngreen.bsky.social writes about the rules of political power that Trump did, and did not, follow last week. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

How to (Not) Maintain Political Power

The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.

open.substack.com

The rules of political power that Trump did (not) follow last week -- plus a chance to mention the curious end-career of Rep. Matt Martinez (D/R - CA). My latest at @misofact.bsky.social. misofact.substack.com/p/how-to-not...

How to (Not) Maintain Political Power

The rules of power in Washington that Trump did – and did not – follow last week.

misofact.substack.com

Just released: The first 2026 issue of Congress & Presidency This issue dives into the biggest questions in American governance today - including presidential authority, congressional power, executive privilege, and institutional accountability. Explore it here: www.tandfonline.com/toc/uctp20/c...

Congress & the Presidency

Volume 53, Issue 1 of Congress & the Presidency

tandfonline.com

RIP Barney Frank. In addition to his caustic wit and legislative acumen, he was a master of procedural rules - which proved extremely helpful to House Dems when they became a minority in 1995 for the 1st time in 40 years. www.nytimes.com/2026/05/20/u...

Barney Frank, Gay Pioneer and Liberal Stalwart in Congress, Dies at 86

nytimes.com

There's been lots of proposals offered lately to restore some balance between the branches. For those trying to keep track, @mattngreen.bsky.social has a running list. open.substack.com/pub/misofact...

Restoring Balance to our Constitutional System

A running list of reforms.

open.substack.com

HOUSE FLOOR UPDATE The chamber is paralyzed again. A "rule" backed by Republican leaders would tee up bills to extend FISA Sec 702 (expires tmrw), reopen DHS (shut down for 74 days) and set farm policy. Currently on track to fail due to GOP defections. Vote open for >85 mins.

RIP Sen. Don Riegle (D-MI), author of one of the strangest congressional memoirs I've ever read. Even the title is odd.

Reflections from a political science conference--I expected a lot of chatter about US democratic failures, but there was a lot more consternation about A.I. in the academy. misofact.substack.com/p/the-most-t...

The most-talked-about topic at a national political science conference was not what I expected

Amidst an overwhelming decline in democratic institutions over the past year, political science professors are talking more about AI than the state of affairs in the US.

misofact.substack.com

“Lawyers as Lawmakers: Professional Expertise and the Conditional Effectiveness of Attorney-Legislators” by Michael E. Bednarczuk explores how professional legal expertise shapes legislative effectiveness under varying institutional conditions. Read here: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Lawyers as Lawmakers: Professional Expertise and the Conditional Effectiveness of Attorney-Legislators

Attorneys have long made up a considerable percentage of Congress. While the reasons for their electoral success are understood, little is known about their impact once elected. Using a novel appli...

tandfonline.com

RIP Eliot Engel. I still remember seeing him at a DC reception featuring MLB players signing baseballs - he was like a little kid, in awe of the players & trying to get signatures from all of them. www.nytimes.com/2026/04/10/n...

If folks are interested, I've just posted an updated draft of The Chadha Presidency, with revisions accounting for the Supreme Court tariffs case, Iran WPR resolutions of disapproval, and more. ssrn.com/abstract=536...

Now on our website: a link to last year's winner of the James A. Thurber Article of the Year award. The article, by Dr. Huchen Liu's, is entitled "Interbranch Competition Over Control of Federal Agencies and the Selection of Career Executives." See here: www.american.edu/spa/ccps/jou...

Congress and the Presidency: A Journal of Capital Studies

Congress and the Presidency: A Journal of Capital Studies, Center for Congressional and Presidential Studies, School of Public Affairs, American University, Washington, DC

american.edu

Confirming what Rachel Bade writes here -- that it's hard, and very uncommon, for Senate leaders to be ousted by their own party. 1/5 rachaelbade.substack.com/p/the-steep-...

The steep hurdles of the "chuck Chuck" movement.

Progressives are agitating against the Senate minority leader. But ousting Schumer is easier said than done.

rachaelbade.substack.com

The Congressional Budget Act passed a half-century ago. How has the federal budget process changed since then, and how might it be reformed? Jasmine Farrier discusses the CBA at 50 in our latest issue: www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10....

Congressional Budget Act at 50: Institutional Ambition to Abdication

Congress’s landmark budget process reform, post-reform adjustments, and current challenges mark significant developments in the US separation of powers system. Over the last fifty years, Congress h...

tandfonline.com

I just finished this excellent new book by @elizabethelder.bsky.social. She uses both old and new data to show the lasting political and social legacy of coal company domination in Appalachia. Great read! press.uchicago.edu/ucp/books/bo...

Company Towns

Reveals the deep, historical roots of public distrust in former mining areas in the US, shedding new light on the corrosive feedback loops that persist today. In Company Towns, Elizabeth Mitchell Elde...

press.uchicago.edu

Our latest issue is now available on-line! Featuring new articles by Mitchel Sollenberger and @markjrozell.bsky.social, Melissa Burgess, Jasmine Farrier, and Michael Bednarczuk, plus new book reviews! www.tandfonline.com/toc/uctp20/c...

Congress & the Presidency

Volume 52, Issue 3 of Congress & the Presidency

tandfonline.com

“Presidents employ prerogative power out of weakness rather than strength.” - Richard Pious, The American Presidency (1979) www.nytimes.com/2025/02/20/u...

Justices Strike Down Trump’s Tariffs

nytimes.com

ICYMI: I'm honored to be joining Jeff Crouch as co-editor of Congress & the Presidency. If you're doing any research on the American legislative and/or executive branches, please consider submitting it to C&P!

American University School of Public Affairs@au-spa.bsky.social · 7mo ago

SPA’s Jeffrey Crouch and Matthew Green will co‑edit "Congress & the Presidency: A Journal of Capital Studies," published by @ccps.bsky.social. They bring deep expertise in presidential power and congressional politics. Learn more about their plans for the journal: https://bit.ly/4ae9aU0