@michielstock.bsky.social

The Incerto books are written in a provocative style that may not appeal to everyone. Beneath the prose, each book explores a profound concept in probability theory. I tried to strip each to its bare bones. (1/6)

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The Incerto books are written in a provocative style that may not appeal to everyone. Beneath the prose, each book explores a profound concept in probability theory. I tried to strip each to its bare bones. (1/6)

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Submitted a project application today and feel really good about it! Research lines have really fallen into place in the last few years!

As everyone shares AI-generated images, I'll also post something I've created. I took up watercolors to relax, and my latest one I am quite happy about!

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This beautiful paper extends the bias-variance trade-off for some losses to a bias-variance-diversity trade-off for ensembles. Diversity of the predictors always reduces the risk but might lead to more variance or bias. arxiv.org/abs/2301.03962

A Unified Theory of Diversity in Ensemble Learning

We present a theory of ensemble diversity, explaining the nature of diversity for a wide range of supervised learning scenarios. This challenge has been referred to as the holy grail of ensemble learn...

arxiv.org

Low-key, I'm a bit depressed about having lost the Signal chat history with a new phone. I still have the history on the Desktop app, but I am afraid of relinking and losing years of memories and photos I shared with my partner.

Proud to have finally finished the new syllabus of my modeling course. 😌 We cover the fundamentals of modeling with ODEs and probability. I hope the students will also like it in a couple of weeks.

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I recently finished Taleb's "Fooled by Randomness". Its main thesis is that a single random draw might not look random, especially after a selection process. Such processes would be vastly different if they were repeated. In a complex world, much is beyond our control.

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