Miles Kellerman
@mileskellerman.bsky.social
Assistant Professor at Leiden University's Institute of Security and Global Affairs. Working on the intersections of finance, crime, and international politics. Website: mileskellerman.com Substack: https://open.substack.com/pub/mileskellerman
Fascinating report on the Dutch intelligence service’s refusal to believe Russia would invade Ukraine, driven in part by mistrust of US officials after Iraq. “The days of taking you at your word are over. You lied in 2003. Not a little bit — you lied big.” www.volkskrant.nl/kijkverder/v...
‘Unique source’ blinded Dutch intelligence agencies to Putin’s invasion: ‘What a fuck-up’
Despite persistent warnings from American and British officials, the Dutch intelligence agencies refused to believe Putin would invade Ukraine in 2022. An investigation by de Volkskrant reveals how th...
volkskrant.nl
Last week was huge for U.S. markets. But it wasn't because of #SpaceX. Far more important was the SEC's planned repeal of the "order protection rule." In a new post, I argue this will lead to the rise of "empire exchanges" with tremendous power --> mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-age-of...
The Age of Exchange Empires
The SEC is repealing an obscure rule on order protection. A change that will fundamentally alter the balance of power in American capitalism.
mileskellerman.substack.com
This month I hosted a workshop on export controls with representatives of ASML, Philips, Europol, Dutch law enforcement, banking practitioners, and expert researchers. All part of a new research initiative I’m launching on export control enforcement —> #polisky open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
The Hidden Frontlines of Global Trade Security
States are increasingly weaponizing export controls. But the burden of enforcement falls on another set of actors: the private sector.
open.substack.com
This month I hosted a workshop on export controls with representatives of ASML, Philips, Europol, Dutch law enforcement, banking practitioners, and expert researchers. All part of a new research initiative I’m launching on export control enforcement —> #polisky open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
The Hidden Frontlines of Global Trade Security
States are increasingly weaponizing export controls. But the burden of enforcement falls on another set of actors: the private sector.
open.substack.com
“Benchmark north-west European prices for jet fuel closed at $1,573 a tonne on Thursday, according to price reporting agency Argus Media, up from about $750 a tonne before the Iran war.” giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
giftarticle.ft.com
The Netherlands Court of Audit has published an evaluation of the Dutch Anti-Money Laundering system. Their conclusion: "...the current anti-money laundering approach is insufficiently effective and efficient." www.rekenkamer.nl/documenten/2...
Gevolgen groot, opbrengsten onbekend - Onderzoek naar de anti-witwasaanpak in de bankensector | Algemene Rekenkamer
rekenkamer.nl
My new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking. Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order. #polisky aeon.co/essays/the-u...
Solid read on underground, off-grid financial flows. Not everything passes through a centralized banking system. And not all such flows are for illicit matters.
Miles Kellerman@mileskellerman.bsky.social · 4mo agoMy new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking. Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order. #polisky aeon.co/essays/the-u...
My new essay for @aeon.co explores the little understood world of underground banking. Despite intense state pressure, these ancient networks have retained their independence. It is a story that holds critical lessons for our fracturing global financial order. #polisky aeon.co/essays/the-u...
Data center securitization, equity bubble, private credit withdrawals, oil crisis, crypto banking licenses, prediction market insider trading, FCPA on pause…everything is fine.
“Increasingly the US is not so much the gatekeeper of the world’s only energy system, but the paranoid guardian of an ailing oil order that is rapidly losing primacy.” Great data-packed overview —>
Kate Mackenzie@katemac.bsky.social · 4mo ago“The war on Iran will be a reckoning of US military prowess. It may also undermine dollar centrality if Iran’s offer of safe passage for shipments invoiced in renminbi eventuates… and it will surely strike a blow to the prevalence of the global fossil energy system that the US dominates.”
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution? A new post for False Positive: mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
The Silicon Shell Game
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution?
mileskellerman.substack.com
I sometimes joke that drug smugglers' techniques will soon be used to move other goods. But I didn't think "Nvidia chips" would be on that list. The problem, and a possible solution, by @mileskellerman.bsky.social :
Miles Kellerman@mileskellerman.bsky.social · 4mo agoFake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution? A new post for False Positive: mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle Nvidia's AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution? A new post for False Positive: mileskellerman.substack.com/p/the-silico...
The Silicon Shell Game
Fake labels, hair dryers, and a $2.5 billion scheme to smuggle AI chips into China. Why are export controls failing? And could private markets offer a solution?
mileskellerman.substack.com
open.substack.com/pub/mileskel...
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
open.substack.com
Gravel Influencer@gravelinfluencer.bsky.social · 5mo agoJust thinking about how lots of people in the White House are making money off of this
Just thinking about how lots of people in the White House are making money off of this
Data Bear 🏳️🌈@dataandpolitics.net · 5mo agoBetting on war is evil and wicked biblical senses.
It is hard to ignore the convenience of this initiative for American social media companies who might otherwise be restricted by campaign finance laws
Lucy Fisher@lucyfisher.ft.com · 6mo agoEXC: US State dept is set to fund Maga-aligned think-tanks and charities in UK/ Europe to amplify Washington’s policy stances and challenge perceived threats to free speech W/ @annasophiegross.bsky.social, @oilsheppard.bsky.social & Amy McKinnon as.ft.com/r/98452b33-5...
What explains Trump's rise? How did we get here? There are many theories. But I keep coming back to a single place: Orange County, California. Here's a story about how my hometown invented subprime lending and, in turn, changed the course of history mileskellerman.substack.com/p/orange-cou...
Orange County Syndrome
How the birthplace of subprime mortgages paved the way for Trump's rise.
mileskellerman.substack.com
Writing in the Oxford Business Law Blog, I argue we face a "Detection Trilemma" in financial crime. The solution? Licensed Detection Agents — regulated bounty hunters empowered to surveil data and rewarded for results. #econsky #polisky #lawsky #finance blogs.law.ox.ac.uk/oblb/blog-po...
Licensed Detection Agents: A New Market Mechanism for
blogs.law.ox.ac.uk
“European officials, on the other hand, talk incessantly about the anti-coercion instrument, but it still fails to deter because they seem so extraordinarily reluctant to deploy it.” @himself.bsky.social gets to the heart of the matter in a clear eyed op-Ed. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/21/o...
Opinion | Europe Has a Bazooka. Time to Use It.
nytimes.com
To prevent miscalculation, avoid US taking Greenland, Europe has to disabuse the US of the notion that it is weak. This means clearly signaling what's on the table to deter action. To deter, Europe has to be clear. The problem is Euro foreign policy is anything but clear. 9/
The thing to know about the PM of Canada is he just signed a trade deal with China. He is as serious as a heart attack about this.
Miles Kellerman@mileskellerman.bsky.social · 7mo ago"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination." "Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..." In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges. www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
"You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of your subordination." "Hegemons cannot continuously monetize their relationships. Allies will diversify..." In an ocean of platitudes, a real speech emerges. www.youtube.com/live/JtF630g...
LIVE: PM Carney delivers special address at World Economic Forum
YouTube video by CTV News
youtube.com
Before the Venezuela operation, a user made $400k on Polymarket betting against Maduro. Prediction markets claim to facilitate truth discovery. But in a new post, I contend they are warping reality by reducing politics to a series of binary wagers. mileskellerman.substack.com/p/betting-on...
Betting on Regime Change
Someone made a fortune betting on Maduro's capture. It exemplifies how prediction markets are reducing world events to nothing more than a casino wager.
mileskellerman.substack.com
My head is spinning as Trump goes full neo-royalist. Venezuela becomes a tool to redistribute oil revenues to those of Trump's choosing. Very similar to the exceptions and investment deals tied to tariff negotiations. www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System | International Organization | Cambridge Core
Further Back to the Future: Neo-Royalism, the Trump Administration, and the Emerging International System - Volume 79 Issue S1
cambridge.org
Kai Ryssdal@kairyssdal.bsky.social · 7mo agoThe number of ways this is unconstitutional lunacy is…a lot
