Michael Derby

@michaelsderby.bsky.social

Fed and economy reporter with @reuters.com, ex-WSJ. Failed musician, guitar holdout. Signal: michaelsderby.50

2026 could be at risk for setting a new record- most expensive national average price of gasoline on Labor Day. currently Labor Day 2012 is the record holder: $3.83/gal. we're at $4.06/gal today- if a deal to reopen the Strait doesn't materialize, we could break that.

I can’t believe Iran saying they think they’ve got Oman on board with their plan to thwart US war aims is being treated as successful peace talks or an American accomplishment, even a little. That is crazy-making to me.

Yellen: "Members of the FOMC are going to talk. I think it would be undesirable for them not to do so. The market needs to, at a minimum, understand what is the Fed's reaction function...That's not necessarily a forecast of where rates will be, but how will the Fed respond to data?"

Former Fed Chair Janet Yellen says on CNBC she is worried about tariffs, energy, and AI-driven price hikes. "My hope would be that it would be possible for inflation to subside as these shocks pass through, but that would likely take another couple of years."

President Donald Trump’s administration has detained more than 50 spouses and parents of U.S. troops as it rolls back immigration protections for military families, an AP investigation has found.

AP Exclusive: Trump's immigration crackdown has detained more than 50 military spouses and parents

An Associated Press investigation reveals that President Donald Trump’s administration has detained dozens of parents and spouses of active-duty U.S. troops.

bit.ly

Trump FBI chief Patel linking up with Russian, Chinese cops: “U.S. officials have long portrayed Russia and China as exporters ​of crime instead of potential allies in combating it, not to mention sources of espionage aimed at American interests worldwide.” Via Reuters

EXCLUSIVE: Under Patel, FBI forges unprecedented law enforcement ties with China, Russia

FBI Director Kash Patel says he has forged new law enforcement partnerships with China and Russia, two longtime U.S. rivals, over the past year in hopes of gaining allies in combating transnational cr...

reuters.com

"Reluctantly," a federal judge dismisses the Oath Keepers seditious conspiracy cases. Trump DOJ "excuses criminal acts that caused a centuries-long pillar of our democracy—the peaceful transfer of presidential power—to buckle." "The court cannot write a different ending," he adds. buff.ly/NvVKnaW

This is the last of the prosecutions seeking to hold accountable those responsible for the events of January 6. That book is now closed. Today’s epilogue diminishes the gravity of that day, denigrates the work of the prosecutors and law enforcement officers who secured these convictions, and excuses criminal acts that caused a centuries-long pillar of our democracy—the peaceful transfer of presidential power—to buckle. The court cannot write a different ending.

Why does Fed Chair Kevin Warsh seem like he is perpetually running for student body president? On whether his pure sizzle, no steak approach to Fed communications makes his goal to set markets free harder, not easier, plus more thoughts in today’s PCB central. Link: open.substack.com/pub/petercon...

PCB Links: Kevin Warsh had a rough day

Thoughts on the Fed Chair's disastrous press conference, the logic to his reticence (and the WSJ's flip on discretionary central banking), Texas as a business Mecca, and more on mentoring young people

open.substack.com

Mike Lee's SCREEN Act, which heads to Senate Commerce Committee for markup on Wednesday, would expand age verification requirements to a nearly limitless scope of websites, and is supported by the architects of Project 2025.

The SCREEN Act is a Christian Nationalist Nightmare

Mike Lee's SCREEN Act, which heads to Senate Commerce Committee for markup on Wednesday, would expand age verification requirements to a nearly limitless scope of websites, and is supported by the architects...

404media.co

As an aside, this is also how you know the United States is still a democracy. Autocracies hoard the treasure but spend blood freely. When Trump thinks he can spend a few divisions to salve his ego as Putin has, instead of just some missiles, you will know the republic died some time ago.

Pye Wacket@jackindabox22.bsky.social · 22h ago

The desire to spend treasure over blood has been a hallmark of US military policy since WW2. Certainly this admin is particularly cowardly and hates losses moreso than any other, but the treasure over blood impulse plays to US strengths anyway.

Donald Trump stands out historically in one way. He has demilitarized the US military more quickly than any other political leader in US history. A full blown pacifist would have struggled to throw away weapons faster than he has.

FYI Science Policy News: More U.S.-trained physicists are leaving the country, an exodus that adds to fears of a U.S. "brain drain" www.aip.org/fyi/physics-... a near-doubling of non-US citizens left the US after receiving their PhD, around 29%, in 2025 @aip.bsky.social

Physics PhDs Are Leaving the US at a Record-high Rate

The exodus of non-US citizens has “certainly” been influenced by science funding and visa policy changes under Trump, a new AIP report says.

aip.org

The idea that a war only exists if there are casualties does not appear in the text of the Constitution. Nor does it appear in Madison’s notes on the Constitutional convention debates. Nor is there evidence it was discussed in ratification debates. It is made up.

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · yesterday

Sen. Rand Paul: "I've had the debate with this administration ... they told me this isn't a war. I said, why isn't it a war? They said, 'Well, a constitutional war has to have significant casualties' ... initiation or declaration of war is *before* the casualties."