Jørgen Modalsli

@modals.li

Professor, Oslo Metropolitan University. Economics, economic history https://modals.li

World Cup quarter-finals starting today! As in most years, this is mainly a European and South American thing. But not a very good year for South America, with only Argentina left. One country from outside Europe/South America is fairly average; this year it is Morocco.

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World Cup quarter-finals starting today! As in most years, this is mainly a European and South American thing. But not a very good year for South America, with only Argentina left. One country from outside Europe/South America is fairly average; this year it is Morocco.

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Do you know of studies that actually evaluate use of LLMs in the public sector or other kinds of knowledge work? Teknologirådet in Norway just published a report evaluating their own use of LLMs, based on careful logs from 35 cases. teknologiradet.no/publication/...

Kunstig intelligens i kunnskapsarbeid

Teknologirådet har gjennom 35 case dokumentert og vurdert bruk av KI i vårt eget arbeid med teknologivurdering, blant annet til kartlegging av eksperter og aktører, horisontskanning, utvikling av scen...

teknologiradet.no

Now this is a first for me at an academic conference: a famous economist (Thomas Piketty) discussing the future with an (even more?) famous science fiction writer (Kim Stanley Robinson). Interesting so far, but hoping for some space travel questions! #WIC2026

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Fully funded Ph.D. position in economics open - please apply and/or inform your promising students! Application deadline 28 February. www.oslomet.no/en/work/job-... This is an open-topic fellowship, with research proposals aligned with the economics group's research interests being given priority.

PhD Fellowship position in Economics at Oslo Business School, OsloMet

Oslo Metropolitan University is Norway's third largest university with 23,000 students and over 2,600 employees. We have campuses in central Oslo and at Romerike. OsloMet educates students and conduct...

oslomet.no

Fully funded Ph.D. position in economics open - please apply and/or inform your promising students! Application deadline 28 February. www.oslomet.no/en/work/job-... This is an open-topic fellowship, with research proposals aligned with the economics group's research interests being given priority.

PhD Fellowship position in Economics at Oslo Business School, OsloMet

Oslo Metropolitan University is Norway's third largest university with 23,000 students and over 2,600 employees. We have campuses in central Oslo and at Romerike. OsloMet educates students and conduct...

oslomet.no

Jeg har skrevet om sløseridebatt, offentlig pengebruk og om å prioritere velferd. Det er ikke sløsing å bruke penger på velferd, det er en prioritering. Og skal vi beholde velferdsstaten i fremtiden må vi sannsynligvis regne med at den blir dyrere. Les hvorfor her:

(+) Hvis vi vil beholde velferdsstaten, må vi regne med å bruke mer penger på den

At offentlig sektor er blitt dyr i drift, skyldes ikke at vi bruker for mye penger eller er uproduktive. Grunnen er at vi er ekstremt produktive. Det bør både sløserikritikerne og velferdsstatsforkjem...

morgenbladet.no

New working paper! *Female labor force participation in historical census microdata*, available at EHES: ehes.org/wp/EHES_282.... . Female labor force participation is well measured in the Norwegian 1910 Census, and the available micro data is well suited for economic analysis (with some caveats).

Female labor force participation in historical census microdata
By: Jørgen Modalsli

ABSTRACT
How reliable is historical microdata? Understanding historical labor force participation is crucial for assessing long-term trends in economic development and intergenerational mobility. Most existing historical studies are, however, limited to men, and little is known about how reliable quantitative historical sources are when studying labor market outcomes for women.
This paper documents that the measurement of women's economic activity in the 1910 Norwegian population census had a high level of consistency. There is extensive discussion of measurement issues in historical census reports, micro data can reproduce historical census tables with a high degree of accuracy, and other contemporary reports such as industrial censuses and tax statistics confirm the results found in the census. In addition, a double-enumeration feature of the Norwegian census is leveraged to assess consistency between enumerators, finding no indication that precision in the occupational classification of women is any lower than for men. Some potential sources of downward bias are found in the historical census microdata set provided by IPUMS.
Based on the results in this paper, historical census data appears well suited to study economic activity using modern econometric methods, for women as well as men. A slight upward revision of the 39\% female labor force participation in Norway in 1910 might be in order.

Her er noen "hva om"-utregninger etter stortingsvalgresultatet 2025. Alt med forbehold om feil, og at resultatene heller ikke er helt klare ennå (foreløpige tall er lastet ned fra valg.no). Mandatfordelingen med disse tallene er altså:

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Enjoying the World Labor Conference (@eale-office.bsky.social /SOLE/AASLE) in Toronto! Look forward to an interesting program, and to presenting our paper on labor force participation and intergen mobility tomorrow. Happy to chat about mobility, inequality, long-run trends, historical micro data++!

On Norway's Constitution Day: a new, unknown "anti-war" party has ads all over the public transport system in Oslo. Financed by Russia? Who knows, political financing transparency laws are weak

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New working paper! How Business Income Measures Affect Income Inequality and the Tax Burden, with Aaberge, Francesconi and Vestad. Using Norwegian administrative data, we show that income inequality is much higher than commonly measured. Measurement matters! www.iza.org/publications...

This paper presents estimates of income concentration and inequality for Norway using a new comprehensive measure of income, which identifies business income as it is earned by companies rather than when it is paid out as dividends to owners. We assemble several sources of high quality register data that allow us to account for multiple layers of business ownership across all companies between 2001 and 2018. Compared to official statistics, the new measure implies that the share of income attributable to the top 1\% of the distribution more than doubles and the Gini coefficient estimates increase by about 40\%. Our new measure identifies substantial tax regressivity for individuals in the top percentile, a feature that cannot be detected by standard income measures. For instance, while the share of gross income paid in taxes by individuals at the 99th percentile is about 36\% in 2016, the corresponding share paid by individuals in the top 1\% is 19\%.