ken morrison
@morrisonmkts.bsky.social
commodities; mostly of the agricultural kind
MO Governor Kehoe and GOP Legislators got their butt kicked on Prop 4 & 5 Tuesday. I was a Poll Judge in St. Louis where these attempts at power-grabs brought out record highly-motivated voters.
Interest Rates: 30 yr tsy yield assured of the highest monthly close in over 20 years.
Diesel Production (BBG): U.S. production on course for seasonal daily record , much of it is exported. Refining margins for diesel near $2/gallon, also near a record
This text received made me laugh: "Your MAGA Loyalty File shows incorrect information, please fix it by midnight to avoid permanent damage to my record" I guarantee that file is empty and has collected dust since 2015.
Refining Margins: Down a little from last week's record but gross margins still high at $1.12/gallon gasoline and $2.04 heating oil; $1.42 overall . Don't expect retail relief anytime soon, especially on diesel.
3-2-1 Crack Spread: (Refining Margins) They close the week at a record $70/bl , $1.67/gallon. Peak margins previously were April 2022 at $59/bl, $1.42/gallon. Iran war has been very profitable for oil refiners.
Bloomberg: "From what can be gleaned of the as-yet unreleased terms, it seems the US president's negotiators have solved only the problems Trump himself has created. This goes all the way back to the Republican's first term when he tore up President Barack Obama's original 2015 deal with Iran.
Managed-$ funds net-sold 305k futures & options w/e June 9th in the combined C, W, S, SBO, & SBM markets. That's the largest selling spree of a single week in at least 5 years. Changes in price and open interest indicate funds continued net-sellers the past 3 days.
Purdue-CME latest survey of Ag Producers (Right Track / Wrong Track) : For perspective, 75% of U.S. ag producers voted for Trump in 2024
BBG Commodity Index: Broke TL support on a Gap, not a good look
Non-Soybean U.S. Trade to China: 2020-2024 were relatively 'normal' years of U.S. Ag trade to China. Non-Soybean Ag-trade ranged from $15-23.5 BLN/year , with a median of $16 BLN.
USTR Greer left China talking of "10's-of-billions" possible future U.S. ag trade to China. This chart provides perspective
From Reuters earlier this morning 14 May 2026 05:16:47 AM - U.S. TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT ON CHINA: SOYBEANS ARE ALL TAKEN CARE OF
good morning dear Helene and Happy Birthday! @hmeisler.bsky.social
Refining Margins: Oil-refiners continue to realize 'fat' margins, $1.30/gallon on gasoline & $1.63 on HO/Diesel. The best margins since end-June 2022.
"Big-5 Ags": Managed-$ funds net-added 88k contracts to their net long w/e 5/5 setting a new record at 836k contracts combined net-long. It breaks the 2012 record of 779k contracts; length in soy oil & soy meal is the primary difference vs. 2012.
Wheat: Speaking of buying the dip. investors in the ETF $WEAT added 23% to their presumable long since the April 28 high, their largest position since June 2022.
Crude Oil & Soy Oil daily price-movement today had 4 & 3 std. dev's respectively, each rare for any market.
Purdue Ag Producer Survey : New high for 'wrong track'/ new low for 'right track'
Cattle & Beef Marketing Chain: Where money is made & lost at each step (BBG & Hyrum Egbert)
Oil Refining Margins: Refiners realizing $1.17/gallon on gasoline refining margins, the highest since June 2022. (retail gasoline prices are not coming down anytime soon)
Managed-$ funds in the 'big 5 ags' (C,S,W,SBO, & SBM) stands at 769k contracts a/o 4/28. The record is 779k from August 2012. Looking at price and OI changes since Tuesday, funds are most likely at a new record net-long a/o today's close.
Wheat (HRW): Bunge delivered 2.9 m.b. HRW on first-notice day vs. K futures , contributing to today's weakness. There were no strong stoppers , expect continued re-deliveries.
Soy Oil: Managed-$ funds set a new record net-long a 4th consecutive week at 165k contracts. Previous record 127k dates back to November 2016.
Grains: Passive investors in the ETF's $Corn & $WEAT pared their long-positions for the first time after building record longs over the prior 5 weeks, positions down 17% & 7% respectively week/week.
3 S.D. daily moves in S & P & Crude Oil futures so far today