@msobel.bsky.social
The IMF released its External Sector Report & The Economist carried a Gopinath, Gourinchas (2 IMF stalwarts) & Rey essay. Both give short shrift to the key impact of exchange rate valuations on global imbalances. The IMF needs to take XRs more seriously. 👇 www.omfif.org/2026/07/imf-...
IMF and exchange rates: a work in progress - OMFIF
The publication this week of the International Monetary Fund’s 2026 External Sector Report and an essay by Gita Gopinath
omfif.org
A sizable, sensible downward revision to official measures of foreign direct investment in the US via Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti @brookings.edu www.brookings.edu/articles/dow...
I prepared piece below on RMB internationalization & reserve currency prospects in the 2026 OMFIF Global Public Investor report. I question if state-led RMB internationalization is viable & see internationalization gains as spotty & record mixed. 👇 www.omfif.org/2026/07/is-c...
Is China prepared to give up control? - OMFIF
Progress towards creating a fully internationalised renminbi is likely to remain modest and constrained. The record is spotty.
omfif.org
Who knows when the Treasury FX Report will be issued. The RMB is undervalued & China’s current account surplus massive. But if Treasury has thoughts about designating China a manipulator, it would be highly unwise, even if a case could be made. 👇 www.omfif.org/2026/07/us-w...
US would be unwise to designate China currency manipulators - OMFIF
Amid a worldwide focus on global imbalances and Chinese exports, whether the Treasury might designate China for currency manipulation
omfif.org
Is Kevin Warsh a hawk, chickenhawk or dove? The post-FOMC "hawk" narrative woefully jumps the gun & may be wrong!👇 www.omfif.org/2026/06/hawk...
Hawk or dove? It’s too early to judge Warsh’s position - OMFIF
Kevin Warsh’s first press conference as chair of the Federal Reserve – he’s a hawk, orthodox, not the president’s sock puppet.
omfif.org
A great honor for me/OMFIF to host Randy Quarles & Claudia Sahm to discuss yest's FOMC meeting. Topics: Kevin Warsh's first presser, is the Fed getting back to 2%, Claudia/Randy dots, whither forward guidance, balance sheet policy, task forces & more. www.omfif.org/videos/june-...
June FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Following the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Claudia Sahm and Randy Quarles join OMFIF’s Mark Sobel to discuss the policy outcomes and outlook for US monetary policy. The meeting assesses...
omfif.org
Huge thanks to Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay Currency Research, for his wonderful commentary -- "The US Treasury market is living on borrowed time". www.omfif.org/2026/06/us-t...
US Treasury market is living on borrowed time - OMFIF
The US Treasury market has long served as the world’s financial anchor. That reputation for placidity is becoming harder to sustain.
omfif.org
Please join a post-FOMC virtual session on Thursday, June 18, 10 am EDT/3 pm London with OMFIF's esteemed guests, Randy Quarles and Claudia Sahm. Sign up below.👇 www.omfif.org/meetings/jun...
June FOMC meeting: the outlook for US monetary policy - OMFIF
Following the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Claudia Sahm and Randy Quarles join OMFIF’s Mark Sobel to discuss the policy outcomes and outlook for US monetary policy. The meeting assesses...
omfif.org
A multipolar currency system. Does it waddle and quack like a duck? Is a zebra a white animal with black stripes or a black animal with white stripes? Does one exist?👇 www.omfif.org/2026/06/what...
What does a multipolar currency system actually look like? - OMFIF
Financial media, academic work and analyst reports are replete with references to a multipolar international currency system. What is it?
omfif.org
Deeply honored to have my piece on the G7 Summit and global imbalances included in: online.flippingbook.com/view/2646487... Thanks to the G7 Research Group/Toronto Univ. @g7_rg @GloGovMedia
G7 France: The Évian Summit
This interactive flipbook is created with FlippingBook, a service for streaming PDFs online. No download, no waiting. Open and start reading right away!
online.flippingbook.com
Every year there's around 200,000 Russian tourists who come to visit Italy. That's the same number as Japanese tourists and is up 90% from 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Europe talks tough, but actions speak louder than words. Just not good enough... robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/four-chart...
Are interest rates/term premia moving higher for good or is the latest rate surge a temporary flash in the pan? See below, with appearances from the "yips" & Roseanne Roseannadanna.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/05/bond...
Bond yield volatility: just ‘yips’ or the return of vigilantes? - OMFIF
Bond yields have jumped in recent weeks. But is this just usual volatility what Trump once called ‘yips’ or might it be the bond vigilantes
omfif.org
👍👍 Indeed. The CCRT was created in 2014 in response to a call by Treasury Secretary Jack Lew to provide debt relief to countries then hit by Ebola. www.reuters.com/article/busi...
U.S. urges IMF to cancel debt of Ebola-stricken countries
The United States on Tuesday proposed that the International Monetary Fund write off some $100 million in debt it is owed by Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone to free up more resources for those countr...
reuters.com
Marina Zucker Marques@marinazucker.bsky.social · 2mo agoReminder: the IMF has a fund — the Catastrophe Containment & Relief Trust — designed exactly for moments like the Ebola outbreak now raging in DR Congo. BUT it's nearly empty. The cash left wouldn't even cover DRC's own debt repayments to the IMF in 2026 May- Dec.
Thanks to FTAV and Robin Wigglesworth for running the piece below on America putting the RMB back on the international agenda. Huge thanks as well to co-conspirators Brad Setser and Robin Brooks. giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
America needs to put the renminbi back on the international agenda
‘Managed trade’ isn’t the answer
giftarticle.ft.com
Would a US Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund or Federal Reserve "swap" with the UAE make any sense?👇 www.omfif.org/2026/05/us-u...
US-UAE swap would be political, not financial - OMFIF
‘Swaps, mops, fobs.’ These sardonic words came to mind after hearing stories of a possible swap between the US and United Arab Emirates.
omfif.org
The IMF can do more to help LIC/LMIC debt distressed countries by using its bully pulpit & setting the envelope through its DSAs to provide greater debt relief. It’s time to do so & help provide more fiscal space for reform. www.omfif.org/2026/04/imf-...
What to expect from the IMF at next week's Spring Meetings? My scenesetter. Perplexity, hand-wringing, confusion!👇 www.omfif.org/2026/04/dele...
Dazed delegates to IMF spring meetings wait in suspense - OMFIF
The International Monetary Fund-World Bank spring meetings, seeking to navigate their way through the shoals of a topsy-turvy global outlook.
omfif.org
Huge thanks to Tara Hariharan, NWI Management, for joining me/OMFIF for a great podcast on the impact of the Iran war on investing in emerging markets as well as the asset class more generally.👋👋 www.omfif.org/podcast/the-...
The emerging markets asset class amid the Middle East energy shock - OMFIF
Tara Hariharan, managing director and head of research at NWI Management, joins Mark Sobel, chief economist and vice chair at OMFIF to discuss emerging market investing. They explore how to manage the...
omfif.org
Charles Collyns, former senior IMF official, examines whether the Fund's Article IV 2026 concluding mission statement on the US economy is too soft on its largest shareholder. Please read his analysis👇 You can judge his answer! Huge thanks to Charles. www.omfif.org/2026/03/is-t...
Is the IMF being too soft on its biggest shareholder? - OMFIF
The US and the IMF member with the largest share of board votes, no longer seems to believe in the rules-based, multilateral economic order
omfif.org
Michael Pettis joined OMFIF/me to discuss China's growth model & challenges, the shocks it has undergone & why reliance on investment & macroeconomic policy caution will continue. 👇 Huge thanks to Michael Pettis for a fascinting and lively discussion. www.omfif.org/podcast/chin...
China's flailing growth model and challenges - OMFIF
Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment and co-author of Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace, joins Mark Sobe...
omfif.org
Macron's G7 Presidency is emphasizing concrete commitments to tackle global imbalances and so is the Trump Admin for its G20 Presidency. We've seen this movie before. Expect lots of pomp & a nothingburger.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/03/glob...
Global imbalances: grandeur and a ‘nothingburger’ - OMFIF
Global imbalances emerged as a hot topic before and after the 2008 financial crisis when wide gaps between surplus and deficit
omfif.org
US Treasury's late January FX Report was on its face a snooze. No Sominex needed. BUT, it was actually an improved & richer report with consequential new findings & analysis. The FX community & officialdom should pay attention. I explain why below.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/02/us-t...
US Treasury Foreign Exchange Report: overhauled and improved - OMFIF
The US Treasury released its latest Foreign Exchange Report (FXR) in January 2026, receiving little fanfare as the report broke no new ground.
omfif.org
The day wouldn't be complete without yet another profound & insightful Kevin Warsh commentary. All kidding aside, Warsh's life is going to be very complicated and not just because of Trump.👇👇👇 www.omfif.org/2026/02/no-e...
No easy answers to questions facing Kevin Warsh - OMFIF
Kevin Warsh understands the Federal Reserve and monetary policy, and he undoubtedly has the credentials to be the next Fed chair.
omfif.org
Thanks to Robin Wigglesworth and FTAV. www.ft.com/content/0933...
Termites are slowly feasting away at the foundations of the dollar’s dominance
Chomp chomp chomp
ft.com
This is a gratuitous and mean-spirited comment that is not worthy of a Secretary of the Treasury and the dignity of the office.
Catherine Rampell@crampell.bsky.social · 7mo agoUS Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: “Denmark’s investment in U.S. Treasury bonds, like Denmark itself, is irrelevant” www.cnbc.com/2026/01/21/b...
Ending Putin's barbaric war against Ukraine will expose Russia's economic ruin. That may be another reason for Putin to keep on fighting.👇 www.omfif.org/2026/01/puti...
Putin is wary of facing Russia’s ruined economic future - OMFIF
Most analysts rightly focus on geopolitical explanations. Humiliated by the demise of the Soviet Union and the loss of the cold war, Putin wants to restore the ‘Russian Empire’ and bolster his country...
omfif.org
Predicting FX markets is a fool's errand but here are 6 2026 FX observations. www.omfif.org/2026/01/outl...
Outlook 2026: Foreign exchange markets will be less exciting than in 2025 - OMFIF
Predicting foreign exchange markets is a fool’s errand, but it has nonetheless sprouted a cottage industry with analysts even audaciously offering pinpoint numerical forecasts conjuring up the fallacy...
omfif.org
Congrats to Gita Gopinath and Brent Neiman on their outstanding work! www.nytimes.com/2026/01/03/b...
Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact?
nytimes.com
