'A move by Putin to shift the dynamics in Ukraine could pose a significant challenge in Burnham’s first six months, but if he is able, also allow the Prime Minister to further burnish his foreign policy credentials' writes Rosalind Roberts in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Andy Burnham’s International Debut: Key Challenges and Opportunities

Prime Minister Andy Burnham faces a challenging international context, with intractable problems, but also opportunities to lead and exert UK influence on world events.

rusi.org

'The Defence Investment Plan offers a sugary hit of headline-grabbing announcements that will drive much of the initial discussion. But on first inspection, there will inevitably be dissatisfaction with many of the answers it provides.' Read for more thoughts and comments by @mtsavill.bsky.social

Matthew Savill Reacts to the Defence Investment Plan

This is a bold bet on technological solutions with no margin for error if procurement is not speedy and implementation rapid.

rusi.org

Can the UK's new Defence Investment Plan deliver on its ambitions? In this analysis, @mtsavill.bsky.social examines the government's latest defence investment priorities, from uncrewed systems and artificial intelligence to the challenges of balancing innovation with military capability.

'Since the release of Mythos and the promotion around Project Glasswing, we have seen a more widely publicised expression of a growing pattern in the AI industry, ... the gatekeeping of model releases under the premise of security concerns.' writes @lmhurel.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Gatekeeping the Frontier: When AI Access Becomes a National Security Concern

The export controls directive limiting access to Anthropic's latest AI models may be the tip of the spear, securitising development in the industry.

rusi.org

It appears we aren't getting the Defence Investment Plan today, and it is back to being published 'soon'! Either way, there are some things to look out for and traps to avoid. 🧵

RUSI@rusi.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Without it (the UK’s Defence Investment Plan), the Strategic Defence Review is a list of ambitions and a rational for change, but expressed as a shopping list, and not a sequenced plan.' writes @mtsavill.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

An important point made here by @justin-br0nk.bsky.social: combat power isn't power if you don't have the weapons. One area upon which to judge the Defence Investment Plan (whenever it appears) would be to see what it says about munition types and quantities.

RUSI@rusi.bsky.social · 2mo ago

'What Europe lacks in terms of combat power is not numbers of aircraft (or even tanks or ships). What it lacks are munitions stocks of sufficient depth and types for combating Russia’s most significant capabilities for a NATO self-defence scenario' writes Justin Bronk in the latest RUSI Commentary.

💬 "Intelligence was the bedrock of Epic Fury’s short-term success, yet the impact of intelligence on US policy appears to remain limited". ✍️ Comments with @mtsavill.bsky.social for @rusi.bsky.social on US intelligence and the #Iran War. @nottspolitics.bsky.social www.rusi.org/explore-our-...

Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran and the US Intelligence Community

Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making.

rusi.org

Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dan Lomas (@sandbaggerone.bsky.social) and @mtsavill.bsky.social.

Missing Intelligence: The Trump Administration, Iran and the US Intelligence Community

Despite intelligence dominance in the war with Iran, events suggest the US intelligence community is having little influence on White House decision-making.

rusi.org

As the week wraps up, so does a chapter of GSB. Through the series, Dr Neil Melvin has scrutinised key security shifts since 2021, and in his final episode, he speaks with @shelter-jones.bsky.social on shifting geopolitics across Europe, the Indo-Pacific and beyond. Tune in: https://bit.ly/42C0ja4

'The use of proxies would help significantly scale attacks against underwater infrastructure in relatively shallow waters, as well as prepare cover positions for strategic sabotage at great depths while denying Russian sponsorship', writes Oleksandr V Danylyuk in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Seabed War: Russia's Secretive Defence Units and Undersea Sabotage Architecture

Classified Russian government document revelations add to concerns that the adversarial nation's undersea threat is both acute and invested towards a further-reaching campaign.

rusi.org

While you are trying to work out if US and Iranian forces firing at one another means the ‘ceasefire’ is still in effect, read this and consider the challenges both face in achieving their objectives.

RUSI@rusi.bsky.social · 3mo ago

The efforts by the US and Iran to interfere with the flow of oil and gas from the Gulf mirror each other in their intent to affect any final settlement. Read the latest RUSI Commentary by Dr Sidharth Kaushal and Dan Marks.

"All below the threshold of restarting major combat operations" is such a ridiculous thing to say

Aaron Rupar@atrupar.com · 3mo ago

Caine: "Since the ceasefire was announced, Iran has fired at commercial vessels nine times and seized two container ships. They've attacked US forces more than 10 times. All below the threshold of restarting major combat operations at this point."

Listen to @mtsavill.bsky.social discuss the Iran ceasefire on BBC Radio 5 Live with Nicky Campbell. Full episode available here: https://bbc.in/41hBuzA

'If there is less confidence that the US would come to Europe's aid in the event of future war, then that does affect deterrence of Russia and indeed others.' Watch @mtsavill.bsky.social interview with The Sun.

Iran celebrates its own defeat as Trump seeks to  punish Nato allies in dream come true for Putin

DONALD Trump is reportedly demanding Nato forces send warships to unlock the Strait of Hormuz and take on Iran within the next few days. Top European diplomats fear Trump is offering a major ultimatum to the alliance demanding that they fight alongside...

youtube.com

When the Chief of the General Staff announced at the RUSI Land Warfare Conference that the Army would ‘triple its lethality’ I was sceptical this was measurable. Here, Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds argue that it can and recommend how to do so.

RUSI@rusi.bsky.social · 4mo ago

What does ‘lethality’ really mean for the British Army? New research from Nick Reynolds and Jack Watling argues it can’t be reduced to a single number and must be understood as the sustained output of combat power in modern warfare.

Good explainer article on what the MEUs are and what they can (and probably cannot) do today from @taskandpurpose.com Featuring quotes by @spettyjohn.bsky.social and me👇 taskandpurpose.com/tech-tactics...

Here's what Marine Expeditionary Units are designed to do

The units are embarked on ships and include air and ground combat elements along with logistics and command structures.

taskandpurpose.com

'It is . . . unclear why the UK should divert scarce resources from Europe that would neither be decisive nor influence a mercurial US Administration that does not need them.' writes @mtsavill.bsky.social in the latest RUSI Commentary.

Iran War Delivers a Tough Lesson in Hard Power to the UK

Aside from policy differences with the US, the UK's Armed Forces' size and capacity make difficult any large UK involvement in war with Iran.

rusi.org

Throughout the week we've sat down with some of our researchers to capture their insights as the conflict in Iran develops. We have now distilled these conversations into a single video for you. For excerpts from each interview see the below thread. www.rusi.org/news-and-com...

RUSI Experts Assess Escalation and Regional Risks in the Iran Conflict

As the United States and Israel conduct major strikes against Iran, four RUSI experts provide their thoughts after the first few days of conflict.

rusi.org

An attempt by me to summarise the impact of Israeli and US operations on Iran's capabilities, with thanks to Times radio for having me on. youtu.be/9NCBTxmY-8w?...

How Much Of Iran’s Military Capabilities Have Been Destroyed? | RUSI Military Expert Analyses

YouTube video by Times News

youtu.be

New research by Dr Sidharth Kaushal argues Europe must use conventional prompt strike to degrade Moscow’s missile defences or risk the credibility of Britain and France’s nuclear deterrents.

Conventional Prompt Strike in European Military Power

This research paper explores the critical role of conventional prompt strike capabilities in enhancing European military power.

rusi.org

In this bonus episode of Global Security Briefing you can hear from Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Dr Jonathan Eyal on the prospects for peace, four years on from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Listen to the episode: https://bit.ly/4tTHfR3

Earlier today Dr Neil Melvin, Dr Maryna Vorotnyuk, @mtsavill.bsky.social & Dr Jonathan Eyal gathered at RUSI HQ to mark the 4 year anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Watch the recording; https://bit.ly/3OLHDkp Not a RUSI Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Comments from me based on my experience with security clearances (and working in vetting a lifetime ago!).

RUSI@rusi.bsky.social · 6mo ago

“national security vetting has largely been a car crash for the past decade.” @mtsavill.bsky.social quoted in @politico.eu.

What are the takeaways from MSC for Germany, UK, Poland, and France? @rikefranke.bsky.social, @mtsavill.bsky.social, @susmonika.bsky.social & yours truly:

War on the Rocks@warontherocks.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Europe left Munich with fewer illusions about the future of the trans-Atlantic relationship. What comes next is still unclear. (Members Only)

Given budgetary constraints in the UK and France, I expect more stories like this going forward. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

European allies ‘frustrated’ by UK defense paralysis

The U.K. rearmament efforts are hobbled by the country’s fiscal difficulties, which is angering the arms industry.

politico.eu

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion, what are Ukraine's prospects for peace? Join Maryna Vorotnyuk, Neil Melvin, @mtsavill.bsky.social and Jonathan Eyal on 24 February for an insightful discussion as we mark the anniversary. Not a Member? Join today: https://my.rusi.org/membership.html

Ukraine: Prospects for Peace, Four Years After Russia’s Invasion

Join an expert panel as they reflect on the prospects for peace, four years after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

my.rusi.org

'they [the US] could go after the centres of military power, including Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps and maybe the militias that are suppressing the protesters' @mtsavill.bsky.social quoted in the below BBC article.

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran again?

Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

bbc.co.uk

A few comments from me here. The headline is that the choice of targets and how much the US can strike are both growing, but the question is what can realistically be achieved, especially if President Trump wants both 'decisive' and 'short'. How brittle is the regime? www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

US-Iran relations: Is the US preparing to strike Iran?

Satellite images show a steady and significant build-up of US military forces in the region.

bbc.co.uk

A good list, and pleasing to see Jack Watling’s ‘Arms of the Future’ recommended.

Secretary of Defense Rock@sodrock.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Only took me a few weeks but here is a list of books to introduce one to all things military. My latest⬇️