Many individuals within the bureaucracy, political, military and career, understood well the risks a war with Iran posed for Hormuz, and it remains striking that nobody resigned (not to even mention objections to legality and morality).
Michael Hanna
@mwhanna.crisisgroup.org
Director, U.S. Program, International Crisis Group; Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Reiss Center on Law and Security, NYU School of Law
Pleased to speak with @nahaltoosi.bsky.social. "People involved in unlawful activity under this administration, 20 years down the line, if they happen to travel to Europe, it might catch up with them."
Politico@politico.com · 6d agoCOLUMN: Trump and his aides rarely go easy on their perceived enemies, writes our Nahal Toosi. But their attacks on the International Criminal Court are hyperbolic enough that you have to wonder: Are they afraid the court will prosecute them?
Yesterday’s drone strike on Damietta, which looks to be linked to the Iran war, represents escalation on regional energy/global markets. Also another signal that Iran is prioritizing its war effort over relations with other regional parties, despite Egypt’s efforts at rapprochement and mediation.
An important emerging dynamic is that the U.S. is not the sole actor capable of determining when and if fighting continues. Iran can keep the war going in the event they aren’t satisfied with the terms governing any ceasefire.
The timing and optics of these attacks - so soon after the successful meetings of the Iraqi PM in Washington - are a real problem for Iraq’s new leader.
Aron Lund@aronlund.bsky.social · last wk.“The United States and Saudi Arabia jointly struck Iran-backed groups in Iraq on Wednesday, and President Donald Trump vowed to ‘beat the fucking shit’ out of Iran for firing on U.S. troops just days after he suspended airstrikes.” www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...
Setting aside views about wisdom of a nuclear agreement with Saudi, Trump’s post-agreement normalization talk is an unwelcome reminder for the region about U.S. unreliability under Trump and the outsized role Israel plays in decisions about their own security.
My reflections from last year on a possible U.S.-Saudi nuclear deal. Most notable features remain the same: the decoupling of nuclear issues from normalization with Israel and Trump’s political latitude in this space in comparison to a Democratic president. www.crisisgroup.org/alr/united-s...
As Other Partners Struggle with Trump, U.S. and Saudi Arabia Move toward Nuclear Cooperation | International Crisis Group
Crisis Group’s Michael Wahid Hanna on a prospective nuclear cooperation deal between Washington and Riyadh
crisisgroup.org
“Jon Finer told me that the hallmark of the Gaza conflict has been that, for both Hamas and Israel, ‘civilian harm was not a side effect but part of the strategy.’” The Enabler: www.newyorker.com/magazine/202...
How Biden Enabled Israel’s Aggression Toward Gaza—and Iran
Top officials from the previous Administration now express regret over their failure to rein in Netanyahu.
newyorker.com
NEW: Kevin Keegan, Liverpool legend, dies aged 75 #lfc
Kevin Keegan, Liverpool legend, dies aged 75
This Is Anfield
thisisanfield.com
My first hazy memories of football are of Kevin Keegan. Incredible player. Sad to hear of his death.
Nico Williams has made a big difference since he came on.
So much of the world united together today in rooting against Argentina.
The United States is intent on waging wars at zero cost and somehow seems shocked that interstate war comes with real risks.
One day again, America will wage a war when the USA shares in the direct costs of conflict, and I do not believe Americans are psychologically ready for it.
Ha ha, sure, that should be very straightforward: “Open the strait. And then, hard as it is for Trump to keep his mouth shut, it’s time for what wise negotiators sometimes call “dynamic silence.”” www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/202...
Opinion | Trump pushed the reset button. This is ‘Iran Fiasco 2.0.’
A coalition can keep Hormuz open and squeeze Tehran. There’s no need to rush a nuclear deal.
washingtonpost.com
Tuchel’s subs and formation changes have made zero sense.
We will have the odd situation today of Egypt and much of the Middle East rooting for England in a WC semifinal.
I saw the last name and suspected this guy must be Egyptian, and sure enough. There is a very specific lane that some Arab Christians have found to be an effective platform into right-wing politics. Beyond the silly ideas here, the racial backlash driving these politics is also going to come for him
Right Wing Watch @rightwingwatch.bsky.social · 4w agoPastor Martin Sedra fumes that "America has created this gay version of Jesus Christ": "Jesus was not effeminate. Jesus was a bold lion. I always tell people Jesus was not a soft guy. He had six packs. He was the most ripped guy you'll ever meet."
The thing that is different about this latest escalation is that it is squarely focused on Hormuz and the manner in which the Strait functions. MOU itself didn’t answer all those questions and there are obvious gaps between the parties. Question for the moment is whether conflict can be contained.
One thing that’s particularly difficult about World Cup assessments is that it only happens every 4 years and one game is often the difference between perceptions of success and failure. A lot of similar questions could be asked of Germany and Brazil based on their recent results.
Pardeep Cattry@pcattry.bsky.social · 4w agoone final #USMNT post-mortem from me before their World Cup journey becomes old news the so-called golden generation let a golden opportunity slip away and failed to beat any allegations about their shortcomings, forcing questions about what's next www.cbssports.com/soccer/news/...
It remains notable to see this administration continue to make good policy decisions on Syria. SST is particularly toxic and has a major chilling effect on investment and bars access to international financing. Countries with this designation are few and carry an added stigma as a result.
Fared Al Mahlool | فريد المحلول@faredalmahlool.bsky.social · 4w agoBREAKING NEWS — US @secrubio.govpeeps.us has confirmed, President Trump formally notified Congress today of the administration's intention to remove Syria's SST designation. Rubio called it "another historic step... to give Syria's people an opportunity to achieve greatness."
New from @crisisgroup.org, a big picture take on war and peace today. "Causes of Peace in an Era of Hard Power" 👇 www.crisisgroup.org/sbr/global/s...
Causes of Peace in an Era of Hard Power | International Crisis Group
With the post-World War II international order fading away and hostilities on the rise, the prospects for conflict prevention look dim. But the picture is not wholly dark. It is possible to identify t...
crisisgroup.org
Damning. And what makes this even worse, of course, is how Argentina play.
Timothy E. Kaldas@tekaldas.bsky.social · 4w agoRatio of fouls to yellow & red cards issued to top 16 World Cup teams Egypt 🇪🇬4.8:1 Portugal 🇵🇹6.3:1 Brazil🇧🇷6.4:1 Canada 🇨🇦6.6:1 Paraguay 🇵🇾6.6:1 England 🏴6.8:1 USA 🇺🇸7:1 Colombia🇨🇴8.8:1 Morocco 🇲🇦10.2:1 Swiss 🇨🇭11.5:1 Mexico 🇲🇽11.6:1 Belgium 🇧🇪12:1 France 🇫🇷12.3:1 Spain 🇪🇸18.3:1 Argentina 🇦🇷19.7:1 Norway 🇳🇴24:1
Both the U.S. and Iran seem to think that they can incrementally escalate without fully collapsing the ceasefire, and it’s a pretty dangerous assumption to operate on.
Argentina played a full 90+11 and didn’t receive a single yellow. That’s an absurdity for that team.