NERV IRB Coordinator

@professormusgrave.bsky.social

Professor of political science. Willing expat becoming an unwilling emigre. Essentially millennial, analytically millenarian. https://musgrave.substack.com

this is really interesting because it's both easier than ever to "experience" war (Telegram drone footage snuff films) but more difficult than ever to perceive the costs of war (economic malaise, diplomatic sclerosis, security state brutality)

NERV IRB Coordinator@professormusgrave.bsky.social · 8h ago

I don’t think Americans know what it’s like to lose lose a war. Yes sure the US lost in Vietnam but obviously the costs were way bigger for uh the Vietnamese

was discussing with a fellow traveler today -- but programmers, coders, developers are having an *entirely* different experience of LLM-based products and services than the rest of us, especially the plagiarized plebeians among us (writers, reporters).

It seems pretty problematic that the experience we're having with LLMs is diverging so sharply depending on what you're using it for. My husband (software engineer) recently told a coworker that my experience attempting to use LLMs for research was terrible and the coworker was shocked.

Lora Kolodny@lorak.bsky.social · 5h ago

was discussing with a fellow traveler today -- but programmers, coders, developers are having an *entirely* different experience of LLM-based products and services than the rest of us, especially the plagiarized plebeians among us (writers, reporters).

Doesn't help that the war in question was a war of choice roughly no one asked for and they spent zero time building support for. And the MAGA political promise is all about never having to sacrifice for someone else. They've made normally trivial wartime sacrifice politics essentially fatal.

Yeah, we know what it's like to give up and go home having failed strategically, but we act as if any costs of war are something we can just unilaterally turn off at will. You Must Kneel and Plead Before the Ayatollah or Face an Oil Shock is just not something our psyche is prepared for.

Munitions hole is already being filled, we are already putting metric buttloads of money into this and MRO capabilities and the overall SRM chain, it’s already happening. They are the easier parts of this to remedy it will just take time

"Online Rent-a-Sage" Bret Devereaux@bretdevereaux.bsky.social · 8h ago

I know it sucks, but Dems have got to be prepared to inherit a munitions-and-readiness hole that is going to be expensive to fill, but which will need to be filled. Hardly the only such hole, but it will be a big one.

It's funny because so many cultures have some version of "God Willing" and they're all normal and inoffensive, but the chuds who are upset by hearing "Inshallah" have a lot of overlap with users of the one version that is a huge red flag, the phrase tattooed on our Secretary of Defense: "Deus Vult".

I fundamentally do not know how to square the politics whereby Democrats will essentially have to tell the American people that because they (the voters) made an extremely stupid decision, they need to lower their expectations substantially for the foreseeable future, but here we are.

Obviously I’m on Mockingjay now, & marveling at how well the universe anticipates the role video & propaganda would play in wars like Syria & Ukraine. “Would a rebel army actually risk real resources to film a propaganda video?” Turns out absolutely yes

Matthew Downhour @matthewdownhour.bsky.social · 2d ago

Made it to Catching Fire - truly, Philip Seymour Hoffman was one of the most profound ‘gone too soon’ actors of my lifetime

My desktop machine has some sort of electrical feedback that manifests as a low rumble from the speakers every 2 seconds or so. This would be annoying except that it's the perfect pitch and period to sound like a purring cat.

as noted yesterday, Trump has now come around to treating an Iranian toll system covering the Strait of Hormuz as a given. Hard to overstate the level of strategic failure. US started the war purely as a war of choice and ends up dramatically empowering Iran and given the Iranian govt big wins.

Bill Grueskin@bgrueskin.bsky.social · 9h ago

Reuters: Iran wants fees of 5%-7% of the price of cargo from ships using the strait; Oman wants 3%. "Making fees voluntary, at least nominally, could be a way out of the impasse, although an implied threat of Iranian attacks could mean shippers would be ​unlikely to risk transit without paying."

It simply does not follow that because the cost per unit good is cheaper if you buy in bulk, the cost of a cheap version of a good times how often you have to replace it is greater than the cost of the expensive version of the same. These are two different things.

Andrew Lawrence@ndrew.bsky.social · 11h ago

it’s more expensive to be poor than rich, thats all the theory is and its not complicated and its obviously true for example buy toilet paper in singles instead of bulk for a year and see how much money you waste