Nicholas Emery-Xu

@nicholaskemery.bsky.social

Economics Ph.D candidate @UCLA | economics of computing and AI | industrial organization, innovation, political economy | PEPFAR fanatic https://nicholasemeryxu.com/

When writing a paper on safety-performance tradeoffs in tech races in 2022-2023, my coauthors and I were careful to show that the economic forces existed in prior races (e.g. nuclear) and *might possibly* apply to future AI races to ensure that audiences didn't deem our work wild speculation.

Pekka Lund@pekka.bsky.social · 2w ago

It must be hard for those who are still in denial about how powerful and significant AI is to hear it even from people like Obama. Oh well.

Barack Obama @BarackObama

I was encouraged this week to see the leaders of the frontier labs agree on the need for them to slow down the pace of AI development. Given the stakes, it’s a good and necessary first step.
 
But I’m even more encouraged by the growing recognition that how this powerful new technology develops should be at the center of our public debate.
 
I’ve been watching the progress on AI for over a decade now, and one thing that’s clear to me is that the potential impact of this technology is not overhyped. It’s also moving at lightning speed – and even faster than those who are engineering it can keep up with.
 
I’m not an AI accelerationist who believes it will lead to some techno-utopia, and I’m not a doomer who thinks it will inevitably lead to humanity’s destruction.

But whether this technology results in amazing breakthroughs in medicine, energy and education or unleashes huge economic disruptions, greater inequality, and potential catastrophe will depend on the choices that we make right now – choices that should be made not just by the companies involved, but by all of us.

me, Sept 2025: AI is cool and useful, though we've probably gotten a lot of the low-hanging fruit wins already and are still a ways off from a takeoff. progress might slow down for awhile! me, Sept 2026: buckle up, buckaroos!!

It's quite coincidental that both Steven Pinker and Benedict Anderson consider a major feature of the international system (nationalism and the decline of war, resp.) a causal effect of the invention of the modern novel.

I know it's hard to keep a sense of proportion, but between his wars, decimating USAID, rolling back pollution restrictions, repealing climate policies, & suppressing vaccine programs, Trump is reaching genocide-level body counts. It's almost too much horror to take in.

Wild to see AI x-risk enter mainstream political economy research: "The results show that AGI risk depends not only on technical considerations, but also on market structure, resource constraints, and institutions that shape the equilibrium allocation between speed and safety."

The AGI Race and Existential Risk

Founded in 1920, the NBER is a private, non-profit, non-partisan organization dedicated to conducting economic research and to disseminating research findings among academics, public policy makers, an...

nber.org

While his mountain of horrible personal conduct could fill multiple books, one fact in particular stands out: A year ago, Musk’s actions directly led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people. He did it knowingly. And, worse — gleefully. Read more: www.theverge.com/tech/949259/...

Verge headline: The world's first trillionaire is a killer
by TC Sottek

Image of Elon Musk doing a "fascist salute" in the form of an oil painting on a wall

I'm leading a non-profit team building a pathogen-agnostic early-warning system. We're running the world's largest metagenomic biosurveillance network and we're looking for people who know how to build and scale processing systems and infra. No bio background needed!

SecureBio Detection is Hiring Software Engineers

I'm leading a non-profit team building a pathogen-agnostic early-warning system. As AI systems become increasingly capable substitutes for expert human biologist expertise, the risk that someone coul...

jefftk.com

Some random cloud computing stylized facts: -From 2016-2019, 98% of firms used a datacenter in the same region (US vs EU) in which they had their headquarters (Demirer et al. 2025), and firms rarely switch within region, even when a new datacenter opens nearby