Nicolò Gnocato 🇺🇦🇪🇺

@nicognocato.bsky.social

Economist @ecb.europa.eu | PhD @unibocconi & MSc @lseecon | Interested in Macro-Labor-Monetary Economics *views/opinions are my own, not those of the @ecb.europa.eu* http://sites.google.com/view/nicolo-gnocato/

As a native of Veneto, I’m fascinated by how America’s founding fathers took cues from the Republic of Venice — both as an inspiration for checks and balances, and as a cautionary tale against turning into an oligarchy. Still relevant today in #America250? historywalksvenice.com/article/the-...

The United States of America and the Republic of Venice - History Walks in Venice

The founding fathers of the United States of America sought inspiration, and looked to Venice, the oldest of only two republics in Europe in the 1700s.

historywalksvenice.com

Nicolò Gnocato compares EU regional and global energy shocks' impact on the bloc and finds that while the regional shock still allows firms and consumers to substitute towards cheaper foreign goods and inputs, the global shock closes off this escape route. cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Effects of global versus regional energy shocks: Impact on EU GDP. Simulations based on a multi-country multi-sector DSGE model with production linkages and trade. The regional energy shock arises from trade frictions on EU imports of oil and gas from the RoW; the global shock from a decline in productivity in the RoW oil and gas sector. The shocks are both scaled to imply a 10 per cent rise in the EU energy price on impact, with a half-life of eight quarters.

Not all energy shocks are alike. This column uses a multi-country, multi-sector DSGE model with production networks and trade linkages to compare a Europe-centric regional energy shock — akin to the 2022 Russian gas crisis — with a broader global energy shock like the current Strait of Hormuz disruption. The global shock worsens the EU's terms of trade more severely and triggers exchange rate depreciation rather than the appreciation seen under a regional shock. Crucially, while the regional shock still allows firms and consumers to substitute towards cheaper foreign goods and inputs, the global shock closes off this escape route — amplifying both the GDP contraction and the indirect inflationary effects through global supply chains.

How should central banks react if disruptions in energy markets persist and unemployment rises? Some insight from my paper written in the context of the previous, recent surge in energy prices👇 1/7 ⚠️ Personal views, not necessarily those of the ECB or the Eurosystem

Want to avoid ripple effects from tariffs (and retaliation)? Put them on final goods and exempt intermediate inputs. Check out our column on @voxeu.org (based on a work-in-progress paper)!👇 1/2

VoxEU @ CEPR@voxeu.org · last yr.

The effect of US #tariffs on the supply chain vary significantly. Retaliation targeting final & intermediate goods = more GDP loss & more persistent inflation than retaliation targeting only final goods. N Gnocato, V Gunnella, C Montes-Galdon, T Schuler, G Stamato cepr.org/voxeu/column... #EconSky

Graphs showing euro area imports from the US by BEC decompostion.

Tariffs disrupt trade flows and influence prices, but their broader impact depends on how they are structured and the type of goods targeted. This column examines the economic implications of tariffs across the supply chain, with a particular focus on how different modes of retaliation to US tariffs impact economic activity, inflation, and trade. The authors find that the effects vary significantly. A broad retaliation strategy targeting both final and intermediate goods would result in a more pronounced contraction in GDP and more persistent inflation than retaliation that targets only final goods.

Hey #EconSky Economists for Ukraine (econ4ua.org) drafted an open letter to the future German chancellor. We call for 🇩🇪 & 🇪🇺 to step up & to ⬆️ support for #Ukraine. Please read & sign (if you agree), the form is at the end of ✉️): tinyurl.com/m9ta2b5d Please share this letter with your colleagues.

To: The future German chancellor

To: The future German chancellor From: Economists For Ukraine. Dear Chancellor, Congratulations on taking the helm of the Federal Republic of Germany! You are in a perfect storm, and Germany mus...

tinyurl.com

📣 My work “Energy Price Shocks, Unemployment, and Monetary Policy“ is now out as a Bank of Italy Working Paper! Time for a 🧵(link below) Key question: have central banks been too aggressive or too accommodative towards (core) inflation amidst the recent energy shock? 1/9