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Champions League update! 🔹 Arsenal still on top! PSG joins the fight for first after an away win at Barca. 🔹 Qarabağ with 2 wins! Now 75% likely to make the next round. 🔸 Both Dutch teams in bottom 6 teams — heading towards elimination. 🔸 Athletic Club with 2 losses heading towards an early exit.

NOS Sport@sport.nos.nl · 10mo ago

Had a chat with @sport.nos.nl about the dire start of the European season for the Netherlands, and how it affects their chances of maintaining 6th on the UEFA Coefficients ranking.

Coëfficiëntenmalaise in Nederland: Europese nederlagen kunnen grote gevolgen hebben

Battle for Top 10, good for direct UCL ticket: 78% —🇹🇷 Turkey (-12%) 60% —🇵🇱 Poland (+5%) 36% —🇨🇿 Czechia (-1%) 26% —🇬🇷 Greece (+8%) Battle for Top 15, good for 1 extra European ticket: 51% — 🇨🇾Cyprus (+18%) 37% —🇦🇹Austria (-13%) 8% —🇨🇭Switzerland (-7%) 5% —🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿Scotland (-2%)

🇩🇪 Germany climbing up the ranks of the yearly Coefficients ranking — good for a bonus Champions League ticket. Two wins this week sees them rise from 5th to 3rd most likely to grab a ticket. England and Italy still favourites.

Here's the consequences for 🇳🇱 the Netherlands after 5 losses in 5 games. 🔹 From 80% of 6th down to almost 50%. 🔹 Even chances of dropping below Belgium, up from <0.1% to now 1.7%. All that while the Netherlands still have 6/6 teams, while Portugal have lost 1 and Belgium already lost 2!

New year, new coefficients simulation! ⚠️This year is the first time I've seen where the Big 4 might actually be challenged, as 🇫🇷 France _could_ overtake 🇩🇪 Germany. Being Top 4 gives you 4 direct UCL spots, which are now at risk for Germany, after some poor seasons in Europe.

Finally, here's our Conference League predictions. Again an English team favourites to win the League Stage — just like Chelsea was last year. Top 24 achievable for all, even lowest rated teams Shelbourne/Aberdeen with a ±20% chance!

In the Europa League, English teams are once again favoured to make an impression. Here's how we estimate each teams' likelihood of Top 8 and Top 24 in the League Stage.

A new #ChampionsLeague season is upon us! Here's each team's likelihood of qualifying for Top 8 or 24, according to our predictions:

Lorenzo Cascioli @lorenzocascioli.bsky.social · last yr.

First place is lava!

🚨The third and final blog post in our series on possession value models design decisions🔍: Can the features chosen to represent the game state inadvertently bias player ratings? w/ @probberechts.bsky.social @jessejdavis.bsky.social Lode Van Tente dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/...

An experimental analysis of possession state value models: part 3

Conceptually, possession value approaches such as VAEP, PV, OBV, and g+ are all identical: they estimate the chances of scoring (and…

dtai.cs.kuleuven.be

I love using em dashes (—) whenever I write something, but now it seems people will just think I'm using an LLM. 💀

Not many changes on the coefficients table: 🇳🇴 Bodo/Glimt win means Norway overtakes Greece 🇵🇱 Both Polish teams lose, and 🇦🇹 Rapid Wien with a win, which means places 13-15 look mostly set. 🇸🇪 Djurgården lose and thus Sweden less like to overtake Croatia or Cyprus.

After Lazio's 2-0 loss last night, the battle for the Champions League bonus ticket is just about over. 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 England's #5 is guaranteed a CL ticket 🇪🇸 Spain's #5 is 99.8% sure For 🇩🇪 and 🇮🇹 having 8 teams didn't help, but in the end they also didn't perform at the level needed.

[NEW] First blog in a long time! In which I show a pretty straightforward way to derive teams' attacking and defensive strengths from bookmaker odds. This method is not only easy to implement, but also very accurate compared to results-based models. mackayanalytics.nl/2025/04/01/g...