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Norman J. Steinert

@njsteinert.bsky.social

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Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · 3w ago

Permafrost carbon loss scales roughly linearly with warming, hence it increases during climate overshoot. This also means that AMOC tipping, which is more likely in an overshoot scenario, can reduce these emissions because it causes a widespread Northern Hemisphere cooling. doi.org/10.1038/s414...

Permafrost carbon release scales linearly with overshoot warming mediated by AMOC tipping - Nature Communications

Climate models show permafrost carbon emissions scale linearly with warming exposure during temperature overshoot, also when AMOC-driven cooling partly offsets them. These climate feedbacks are crucia...

doi.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · last mo.

Thawing permafrost releases carbon that fuels warming, offset by plants spreading north. Our new paper finds climate overshoot is worse than both high AND low warming scenarios for this balance as overshoot drives more soil carbon loss, but the plant offset fades as it cools. doi.org/10.5194/esd-...

Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming

Abstract. Under historical warming, terrestrial ecosystems within the northern high latitudes have been a net carbon sink, providing vital mitigation against anthropogenic emissions of CO2. However, t...

doi.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Many climate models omit the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. In this new paper we show that inlcuding it can increase Earth system tipping risks, especially in overshoot scenarios with peak temperatures below 3°C or peak cumulative emissions of below 2000 PgC. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks

Permafrost carbon–climate feedback amplifies Earth system tipping risks, Steinert, Norman J, Munday, Gregory, Sandstad, Marit, Sanderson, Benjamin M, Wunderling, Nico

iopscience.iop.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · 6mo ago

New review paper on "The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements" Main points: Overshooting 1.5°C raises risks of irreversible Earth-system tipping, which depends on peak warming and more so on how long critical thresholds are exceeded. doi.org/10.1088/1748...

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review

The implications of overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth system tipping elements—a review, Ritchie, Paul D L, Steinert, Norman J, Abrams, Jesse F, Alkhayuon, Hassan, Arnscheidt, Constantin W, Bochow, Nils, Chapman, Ruth R, Clarke, Joseph, Dennis, Donovan P, Donges, Jonathan F, Flores, Bernardo M, Garbe, Julius, Högner, Annika, Huntingford, Chris, Lenton, Timothy M, Lohmann, Johannes, Lux-Gottschalk, Kerstin, Milkoreit, Manjana, Möller, Tessa, Pearce-Kelly, Paul, Pereira, Laura, Quinn, Courtney, Schleussner, Carl-Friedrich, Stuenzi, Simone M, Swingedouw, Didier, Van der Laan, Larissa N, Zickfeld, Kirsten, Wunderling, Nico

iopscience.iop.org

Rebecca Varney@rebeccamayvarney.bsky.social · 6mo ago

New preprint in Earth System Dynamics: When will the northern high latitudes become a net carbon source? We evaluate using policy relevant SSP scenarios including overshoot, explicitly representing permafrost🌳❄️🔥🏔️ ➡️ doi.org/10.5194/egus... @njsteinert.bsky.social @mathisoncamilla.bsky.social

Northern high latitudes could become a net carbon source below 2 °C global warming

Abstract. Under historical warming, terrestrial ecosystems within the northern high latitudes have been a net carbon sink, providing vital mitigation against anthropogenic emissions of CO2. However, t...

doi.org

Ben Sanderson@benmsanderson.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Preprint out today in ESDD. SRM's biggest risk is us. 'Peak-shaving' is a best-case scenario, with strong governance and international cooperation. We propose a framework for messier geoengineering futures, which look more like, you know, the news. /1 egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Robust assessment of Solar Radiation Modification risks and uncertainties must include shocks and societal feedbacks

Abstract. Conventional climate scenarios omit fast-timescale human-system dynamics like policy rollback or economic shocks. The climate system's slow response to GHG emissions allows these `fast' ter...

egusphere.copernicus.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Want to get gridded temperature and precipitation responses to any future climate scenarios, including overshoot? --> check out METEOR - a framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses, with Marit Sandstad, Susanne Baur and @benmsanderson.bsky.social. doi.org/10.5194/gmd-...

METEORv1.0.1: a novel framework for emulating multi-timescale regional climate responses

Abstract. Resolved spatial information for climate change projections is critical to any robust assessment of climate impacts and adaptation options. However, the range of spatially resolved future sc...

doi.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · 10mo ago

New paper out today with @benmsanderson.bsky.social, where we quantify the contriution of the permafrost carbon feedback to TCRE and ZEC under uncertainty. Check it out here: doi.org/10.5194/esd-...

Normalizing the permafrost carbon feedback contribution to the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions and the Zero Emissions Commitment

Abstract. As permafrost thaws, the permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) can amplify the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative Carbon Emissions (TCRE) and the Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) by introduc...

doi.org

Ben Sanderson@benmsanderson.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Our finalised paper on flat10MIP is finally up in GMD! This is the experimental protocol which allows for a simple, emissions-driven evaluation of TCRE, ZEC and climate reversibility in CMIP7. Thanks so much to all who ran these simulations as a proof of concept! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...

gmd.copernicus.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · last yr.

New paper out today! Irreversible hydrological changes on land after temperature overshoot affect land water availability for over 23% of the world population in 12% of the global land area, covering regions of various hydrological regimes. doi.org/10.1029/2024...

Irreversible Land Water Availability Changes From a Potential ITCZ Shift During Temperature Overshoot

A strong intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shift occurs in 1–2 of 8 CMIP6 models simulating overshoot, not depicting the most likely but a plausible high-impact outcome The ITCZ shift drives ...

doi.org

CamillaMathison@mathisoncamilla.bsky.social · last yr.

Our new open access paper on the PRIME Earth System emulator for estimating regional impacts is out now: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/..., @njsteinert.bsky.social, @chrisd-jones .bsky.social, @cjsmith.be, @gergmunday.bsky.social, @dougmcneall.bsky.social

A rapid-application emissions-to-impacts tool for scenario assessment: Probabilistic Regional Impacts from Model patterns and Emissions (PRIME)

Abstract. Climate policies evolve quickly, and new scenarios designed around these policies are used to illustrate how they impact global mean temperatures using simple climate models (or climate emul...

gmd.copernicus.org

Norman J. Steinert@njsteinert.bsky.social · last yr.

New paper on “Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions” due to irreversibility of inundated areas, which could delay or hinder climate change mitigation efforts. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Continued permafrost ecosystem carbon loss under net-zero and negative emissions

Permafrost ecosystem carbon loss may continue under net-zero and negative emissions, hindering climate mitigation efforts.

science.org

Andrew MacDougall@ahmacdougall.bsky.social · 2y ago

It's January, which means the EGU abstract Submission deadline is fast approaching: Jan 15th! So if you're in the net-zero world please take a look at: Towards net zero and beyond: remaining carbon budgets, negative emissions, mitigation pathways and implications for policy

Ben Sanderson@benmsanderson.bsky.social · 2y ago

Main takeaway from this (excellent) meeting: ZEC is not a singular property of the climate system. It's a catch-all for everything which isn't described by TCRE - and the more we study it, the more exotic and confusing it seems to be.

Rosie Fisher@rosieafisher.bsky.social · 2y ago

Joined a fantastically interesting workshop on TCRE and ZEC last night If you have ideas on the assessment and definition of TCRE or ZEC (including on whether ZEC is even a useful/real concept) submit to this EGU session! 👇 1/2

Ben Sanderson@benmsanderson.bsky.social · 2y ago

New paper on #CMIP7 emissions-driven design out today in GMD. Earth System Modeling has long relied on simulations driven by GHG concentrations. But this approach is outdated. ESMs need to resolve human activity and its consquences. gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

The need for carbon-emissions-driven climate projections in CMIP7

Abstract. Previous phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) have primarily focused on simulations driven by atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs), for both idealized ...

gmd.copernicus.org