New paper in ERL in which we study the effect of a long-known issue in climate emulators: that we typically calibrate them on only 150 years of 4xCO2 ESM runs. This a problem as we know the climate isn't in equilibrium after this time, but running ESMs is 1/N iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

New discussion paper just dropped that’s taken shall we say a little work to get this far … essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es... please be kind. Not on an at all sensitive topic in the slightest.

How well can we quantify when 1.5 °C of global warming has been exceeded?

Abstract. Parties to the 2015 Paris Agreement agreed to limit the long-term increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C and pursue efforts to keep temperatures below 1.5 °C relative to p...

essd.copernicus.org

D & A style attribution with fair and HadCRUT5 updated to 2025 (emissions extrapolated beyond 2022, but should make little difference) [code: github.com/chrisroadmap...

The FRISIA sea-level rise model description is published today and selected as a highlight paper in Geoscientific Model Development gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... FRISIA is designed to couple with IAMs, but can also be run standalone for sea-level rise projections from emissions scenarios.

Feedback-based sea level rise impact modelling for integrated assessment models with FRISIAv1.0

Abstract. Global warming is expected to lead to a substantial rise in coastal sea levels by the end of the century, which imposes future impacts and adaptation challenges on the coastal zone. Capturin...

gmd.copernicus.org

This is the only parody song about geophysical fluid dynamics you’ll ever need: urldefense.com/v3/__https:/...

Call Me Charney: A GFD Parody

This was so fun to make!! #lamontdoherty #lamont #atmosphere #science #charney #GFS #vallis #geostrophic #quasigeostrophic #hydrostatic #rossby

urldefense.com

Beautiful analysis once again @hausfath.bsky.social www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...

Analysis: What are the causes of recent record-high global temperatures? - Carbon Brief

In this article, Carbon Brief explores four different factors that have been proposed for the exceptional warmth seen in recent years

carbonbrief.org

I'm looking for projections of agricultural water withdrawal into the future (UN FAO have historical data, e.g. fig. 13 in openknowledge.fao.org/server/api/c...). So much the better if they are tied to SSPs.

The Frontiers for Young Minds Climate Change Volume 2, guest edited by me, @chrisd-jones.bsky.social and @leilaniamir.bsky.social, is now complete! Also collected into a nice e-book! kids.frontiersin.org/collections/... Science for kids, peer-reviewed by kids

Climate Change, Volume 2

Our climate refers to the different types of weather we have all around the world. Some places are hot, some are cold, some are dry and some are wet. But now, our climate is changing and it's affectin...

kids.frontiersin.org

🌍Two members of our department @cjsmith.be and @harryzeko.bsky.social joined the first IPCC AR7 lead author meeting in Saint-Denis (Paris). #IPCC #AR7 #ClimateScience #WG1 #ClimateAction

#EGU26 session on climate change emulation for impact projections. Please share with anyone who works on simple climate models, statistical / ML / hybrid approaches, pattern scaling, emulators, real-world impact studies 🌍 📩 Abstract submissions are open. 🔗 Session info: www.egu26.eu/session/56612

⚖️ Are you working on topics that could be relevant for climate litigation? ➡️ Submit an abstract to our outreach session (which allows you to submit a second abstract) #EGU26 meetingorganizer.copernicus.org/EGU26/sessio...

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20... In parallel to experiments run by complex climate models, we evaluate the simple climate models that are used as translations of knowledge from physical science to scenario projections

Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3: Experimental protocol for coordinated constraining and evaluation of Reduced-Complexity Models

Abstract. Reduced-Complexity Models (RCMs) are a critical tool for synthesising climate science knowledge and providing climate projections for a wide range of emissions scenarios. The Reduced-Complex...

egusphere.copernicus.org

A sneak peak of hopefully what is to come in CMIP7. We ran two CMIP6 climate models in CO2 emissions driven mode to 2300 - and the responses in the long term are very different. Preprint: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

The FRIDA overview paper: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/... A coupled human-Earth IAM, with integrated climate impacts.

An overview of FRIDA v2.1: a feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans

Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...

gmd.copernicus.org

Has anybody ever looked at the IPCC AR5 scenario database and run them in a simple climate model? I'm curious to know how many would get close to 1.5°C - probably not many if the earliest net zero CO2 date is ~2060. Interesting to see how ambition has evolved over time at the low end

Carbon Brief article on our committed sea-level rise paper: www.carbonbrief.org/rapid-emissi...

Rapid emissions cuts would avoid 64cm of ‘locked in’ sea level rise by 2300 - Carbon Brief

Cutting emissions in line with the 1.5C warming limit, rather than following current climate policies, could curb long-term sea level rise by 64cm.

carbonbrief.org

Really important paper led by my @iiasa.ac.at colleague Alex Nauels www.nature.com/articles/s41... “The difference between decisive climate action today and continued high emissions is not just measured in degrees of warming but also in meters of sea-level rise” 👏👏👏

Multi-century global and regional sea-level rise commitments from cumulative greenhouse gas emissions in the coming decades - Nature Climate Change

It is important to understand how much long-term sea-level rise is already committed due to historical and near-term emissions. Here the authors use a modelling framework to show how decisions on glob...

nature.com

How to contribute to fair: ✅submit a pull request ✅wait 6 months ✅track me down in person and remind me to review it v2.2.3 now available at the usual places. pypi.org/project/fair anaconda.org/conda-forge/fair

RFMIP2 preprint now out! egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

The Radiative Forcing Model Intercomparison Project (RFMIP2.0) for CMIP7

Abstract. An external perturbation to the climate system from anthropogenic or natural activity first impacts the climate by inducing a perturbation to Earth’s energy budget, known as a radiative forc...

egusphere.copernicus.org

If you want to get your simple climate model picked up by IPCC AR7, see below 👇 We have 11 on our radar from the previous round of RCMIP (egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...), plus a few others we found since. Anybody we don't know about please ping me or Alex

Alex Romero Prieto@arp-climate.bsky.social · 11mo ago

🌍📢 Calling all emulator / reduced-complexity / simple climate modelling groups! The next round of the Reduced Complexity Model Intercomparison Project (RCMIP) is starting, and we’d love your feedback.

flat10-MIP has landed! gmd.copernicus.org/articles/18/...

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO2 emissions

Abstract. The proportionality between global mean temperature and cumulative emissions of CO2 predicted in Earth system models (ESMs) is the foundation of carbon budgeting frameworks. Deviations from ...

gmd.copernicus.org

Now that it's public, I'm very honoured to be selected as Coordinating Lead Author of Chapter 5, Working Group I for the IPCC Seventh Assessment Report 📚🌍 Our chapter is one hell of a team! Full author list for all three working groups: apps.ipcc.ch/report/autho...

A deep dive into the world of simple climate models: preprint out from @arp-climate.bsky.social. we know this isn't exhaustive - we focus on the models that participated in RCMIP phases 1 and 2. There will be a phase 3, coming soon.

We (@tim-andrews.bsky.social, Ryan Kramer and I) are leading a session around understanding radiative forcing in models at the CMIP Community Workshop in Kyoto, Japan, next March. Abstract submissions open until 13 August: wcrp-cmip.org/event/cmip20... Session ID #4

CMIP Community Workshop 2026 - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will bring together a growing, and increasingly diverse, community of Earth system scientists, partners, and stakeholders. It

wcrp-cmip.org

Including a climate module and climate damages within a process-based integrated assessment model: meet FRIDA. egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Introducing FRIDA v2.1: A feedback-based, fully coupled, global integrated assessment model of climate and humans

Abstract. The current crop of models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to produce their assessment reports lack endogenous process-based representations of climate-drive...

egusphere.copernicus.org

Hello world, who else is in Vienna this week?

Please get in touch with Team @carbonbrief.org if you're in Bonn this week – @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org + @joshgabbatiss.bsky.social have just arrived

Josh Gabbatiss@joshgabbatiss.bsky.social · last yr.

It's that time of year again! I'll be in Bonn covering the #SB62 UN climate talks until the end of the week with @mollylempriere.carbonbrief.org Keen to hear the hot takes on climate finance, loss and damage and anything else you think is interesting

In this Carbon Brief post we talk about the implications of not including future volcanic eruptions in climate scenarios, as described in our recent paper: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Neglecting future sporadic volcanic eruptions underestimates climate uncertainty - Communications Earth & Environment

While volcanic forcing uncertainty is typically ignored in climate projections, it can represent up to 49% of the total climate uncertainty and systematically exceed internal variability uncertainty, ...

nature.com

Carbon Brief@carbonbrief.org · last yr.

NEW – Guest post: Investigating how volcanic eruptions can affect climate projections | Dr May Chim, Dr Thomas J Aubry @cjsmith.be‬ Prof Anja Schmidt Read here: buff.ly/P4ZH3OE

I'll be giving a short talk on 1.5°C at a mini-symposium at VUB on Friday 6 June as part of an event celebrating the award of an honorary doctorate to @joerirogelj.bsky.social, see below for details and registration!

Wim Thiery@wimthiery.eu · last yr.

Van harte welkom op het symposium "In gesprek met topklimaatwetenschapper Joeri Rogelj" nu vrijdag 9-12h @vubrussel.bsky.social, met keynote van @joerirogelj.bsky.social en korte lezingen van @cjsmith.be, @cohelongo.bsky.social, @harryzeko.bsky.social & mezelf. receptie. www.vub.be/nl/evenement...

Some sessions that ought to be fun & interesting: 🔷 ID4 RFMIP: Exploring radiative Forcing in models and observations to understand climate change 🔷 ID5 CERESMIP: Confronting models with observed changes in the Earth’s energy imbalance 🔷 ID15 CFMIP: Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity

CMIP ─ Coupled Model Intercomparison Project@wcrp-cmip.org · last yr.

The CMIP Community Workshop 2026 will be held in Kyoto, Japan from 9-13th March 2026. The call for abstracts for CMIP26 is now open! Find out more at wcrp-cmip.org/cmip26-call-...