So how did we get here, with Starmer on the way out after two years? To some extent, it does go back to the beginning. It was not an enthusiastic victory for Labour. Getting rid of the Tories was the top reason people voted for them in 2024, though with their message of 'Change' also resonating.

@yougov.co.uk built the best MRP model of the 2026 Welsh Senedd election, and one of (if not *the*) best model of the 2026 Holyrood elections. I’m very proud of the team’s achievements and YouGov’s continued, worldwide record of election success!

This by @patrick-pme.bsky.social is worth re-upping. Debates whether Lab shld swing left or right miss that most swing voters want the same thing: competent govt that feels like it's doing stuff. Deliverism wld win back votes from both Greens & Reform patrickenglish.substack.com/p/should-lab...

Should Labour move left or right?

Neither? The situation Labour face today looks so similar to that which faced the Conservatives in 2024.

patrickenglish.substack.com

"There is little to no statistical relationship between Reform performance and Labour performance, but a very strong (negative) relationship between Labour and Green performance." @patrick-pme.bsky.social

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

patrickenglish.substack.com

Excellent analysis from my BBC elections team colleague and YouGov data guru @patrick-pme.bsky.social on what the local elections data tells us about whether Labour is losing more to Greens or Reform. Spoiler alert: its the Greens open.substack.com/pub/patricke...

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

open.substack.com

Some more rigorous analysis from @patrick-pme.bsky.social confirming this earlier mid-results hot take: bsky.app/profile/robf...

Rob Ford@robfordmancs.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Excellent analysis from my BBC elections team colleague and YouGov data guru @patrick-pme.bsky.social on what the local elections data tells us about whether Labour is losing more to Greens or Reform. Spoiler alert: its the Greens open.substack.com/pub/patricke...

I’ve written up a Substack all about how the results from this year’s local elections suggest that the Greens are a bigger threat to Labour’s vote than Reform. We had evidence of this from the polling, and now it’s been reflected in election data. patrickenglish.substack.com/p/local-elec...

Local elections analysis: Labour struggled more versus the Greens than Reform

Locals give fresh evidence on how the 2024 Labour coalition is breaking apart

patrickenglish.substack.com

BBC Projected National Share of the vote via @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and change from last year Reform 26% -4 Green 18% +7 Labour 17% -3 Conservative 17% +2 Lib Dems 16% -1

Greens fall just short in Lambeth, but become the largest party. Labour down by 28, losing almost 60%. London tells a very different story regarding Labour performances and defences in later results versus earlier ones. Mostly driven by there being more Green challenges in later declarations.

Here we go! We at @yougov.co.uk have projected how the race is shaping up in 13 local authorities in the West Midlands, using our MRP model. Labour dropping everywhere, Reform surging in those leave-voting areas, three-way races in Birmingham and Coventry. Sky and the Times featured this morning.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 3mo ago

YouGov's local election MRP projects Reform UK are on course for significant gains in the West Midlands, though with close races in some metropolitan boroughs # of councils where party has highest vote share, central projection Ref: 11 (+11 from previous election) Lab: 2 (-7) Con: 0 (-4)

Today we released our first ever MRP projection of London Borough elections. Our central projections have Labour dropping 16pts on 2022, falling to largest party status in just 15 councils. The Greens are set to benefit, with Reform also currently doing well.

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 4mo ago

YouGov's London council election MRP forecasts breakthrough for the Greens and Reform UK in the capital, but with close races in many boroughs # of boroughs where party has highest vote share, central projection Lab: 15 (-6 from 2022) Con: 5 (-1) Grn: 4 (+4) LD: 4 (+1) Ref: 3 (+3) Oth: 1 (-1)

We brought to life a brand new type of model for our Danish election projection - Looped Stratified Simulation (LSS) - and it performed very well! Read more about the model and our Danish work in the thread here 👇

YouGov@yougov.co.uk · 4mo ago

We're delighted with the debut success of our new LSS model at the Danish general election Red bloc parties: 85 seats predicted (+1 from actual result) Blue bloc parties: 79 seats predicted (+2) Across all parties, our model had an average error of just 0.88pts on vote share and only 1.67 on seats

To everyone in my timeline discussing high streets, I've got a report out on Tuesday writing up some surveys that we ran with YouGov in 2022, 2024 and 2025 asking people about how they view their local area... the findings may be of interest in various respects! #staytuned #towns

Join Scarlett Maguire, @jameskanag.bsky.social and myself live with @mattchorley.bsky.social from 5 past 3 for our regular @bbc5live.bsky.social Poll Position segment! Do tune in!

The 2025 UK news cycle, in one chart yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Incredible work by Matt Smith at @yougov.co.uk summing up the most heard news stories of 2025! Check out the whole story & breakdown here yougov.co.uk/politics/art... "Cool" only begins to describe how it feels to see outputs from the AI topic quantifier after I developed it at YouGov last year ♥️

Patrick English@patrick-pme.bsky.social · 7mo ago

Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

Our @yougov.co.uk data journalism extraordinaire Matt Smith has compiled all news tracker results from 2025 into this stunning graphic This tells us so much about what 'cuts through', how news cycles evolve, and what grabs attention re: flash moments vs ongoing stories yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

The latest @yougov.co.uk data suggests that the British public are in favour of banning trail hunting by a margin of 50%-29%. What's more, this crosses urban-rural divides: 50% of people living in rural Britain want trail hunting banned. 35% think it should be legal.

I'll be on Times Radio for a chat with John Pienaar at 4pm to discuss the latest polling on Britain's relationship with the European Union. Do tune in for one final pre-Christmas appearance from me!

Which *one* news story do Britons say they heard the most about in the last week? (fieldwork 21-22 Dec 2025) Shooting on Bondi Beach: 26% Epstein Files: 19% Immigration: 4% Trump [general]: 3% Criticisms of the government: 3% War in Ukraine: 3% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

📻🎄Listen out at 3pm today on @bbc5live.bsky.social for the final Poll Position of 2025, with your regular star-studded pollster team of @jameskanag.bsky.social, Scarlett Maguire, and myself kept on track by super host @mattchorley.bsky.social And yes, of course, there will be a festive joke or two

The Appendices for The British General Election of 2024 book are available (for free) under "Back Matter" at link.springer.com/book/10.1007... The first 71 pages are constituency results analysis by John Curtice, @lottehargrave.bsky.social, @patrick-pme.bsky.social, and myself.

The British General Election of 2024

The British General Election of 2024 is the definitive account of one of the most consequential elections in recent times.

link.springer.com

Here’s the definitive Budget feedback from the British public: yougov.co.uk/politics/art... By are margin of 48% - 21%, Brits view the Budget as “unfair”. Some individual measures poll well, but as a whole Brits think it will make them, and the country, worse off.

How have Britons reacted to the 2025 Budget? | YouGov

While the government may have protected themselves by dropping their income tax plans, the public reaction to the Budget has still been negative

yougov.co.uk

Ahead of the budget, @patrick-pme.bsky.social looks at where public opinion lies Britons think the economy is bad... Bad: 79% Neither good/bad: 15% Good: 4% ...and that the government is managing it badly Badly: 77% Well: 14% yougov.co.uk/politics/art...

I would say this… But this podcast is a must-listen to understand what happened at Conservative Party conference and whether Kemi Badenoch’s stamp duty plan adds up Properly insightful analysis from ace @instituteforgovernment.org.uk colleagues and @patrick-pme.bsky.social @yougov.co.uk

Institute for Government@instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 10mo ago

PODCAST 🎙️ Lessons in Kemistry @patrick-pme.bsky.social joins @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social in Manchester to assess the state of the official opposition at the Conservative Party Conference #CPC25 www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/podcast/insi...

Look out for a #CPC25 Inside Briefing special podcast - the IfG team @drhannahwhite.bsky.social @alexgathomas.bsky.social @tompope.bsky.social are joined by guest @patrick-pme.bsky.social. Landing in your podcast feeds tomorrow. 🎧👀

Latest ITV BarnCymru 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 poll confirms trend seen over last 6 months - neck and neck race between Plaid Cymru and Reform UK for largest party, with Labour falling to even more distant third. Evidence growing of distinct realignment in Wales 🧵

It’s been a bit of a week or so in British politics, right? Eyes are now naturally turning back toward Labour Party members as an electorate. But it’s important to think about *who* the members are, these days. There’s been a lot of churn since Corbyn and even Starmer elections

Phillipson and Powell seem pretty well set to get to 80 from here, you'd think. There are still over 250 MPs left to declare. Easily enough for more candidates to make it, theoretically... You'd think most likely third option is Bell Ribeiro-Addy mustering Labour left support but who knows?

Jessica Elgot@jessicaelgot.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Allies of Bridget Phillipson think she will comfortably sail past 80 nominations today, making her very much the front runner. A two horse race looks likely with Phillipson versus Lucy Powell. Many of those dissatisfied with Labour’s direction now lining up with Powell.

Some polling nuggets on Angela Rayner, now that the Deputy Prime Minister has resigned. First, the British public believed that Angela Rayner should resign even *before* Sir Laurie Magnus released his findings today. This included 36% of those who voted Labour in 2024.