for the first time in two and a half years, a new note was played in this organ performance today!
![Organ²/ASLSP (As Slow as Possible) is a musical piece by John Cage.[1]
An organ in St. Burchardi church in Halberstadt in 2001 began a performance that is due to end in 2640. This makes it the longest running non-computerized piece currently being performed.](https://cdn.bsky.app/img/feed_thumbnail/plain/did:plc:cyyd366g3hrxp5rynixm2mm3/bafkreiabq354dz537iuzii7lwylq56yyr4bcrzkj32by4z7fq3clewmssy)
Rob Ford
@robfordmancs.bsky.social
Politics Professor, University of Manchester. Sky News Elections Analyst Author of "The British General Election of 2024" & "Brexitland". All takes are mine only. "The Swingometer", is here: https://swingometer.substack.com/ https://www.robertford.net/
Notice DOJ doesn't talk about its efforts to obtain state voter files anymore. They are 0-20 in those cases and today is the beginning of the quiet period -- states can no longer do systematic removals of names from the voter rolls. TLDR: We won!🥳
Universities cannot make money teaching home undergrads or doing funded research. Indeed, those run at a large loss. Only teaching international students make sense in any way. The logical endpoint is taking only international students, reducing research and moving many ops out of the UK altogether.
Rather puts Grant Shapps being rejected as a Conservative candidate into perspective.
Former neo-Nazi activist selected as Tory candidate for Somerset council election
Joshua Bonehill-Paine, creator of satirical Crewkerne Gazette, has convictions including for harassing a Jewish MP
theguardian.com
a great section on evidence.. Here's the strongest case for the politics being to blame "Interviews consistently emphasised that spending decisions are not made in a neutral, technocratic environment but...shaped by political priorities, negotiation and the need to respond to immediate pressures."
"At key moments after 2010, ‘spend-to-save’ initiatives were described to us by a senior official as ‘completely non-negotiable’. The Treasury bias against ‘spend-to-save’ is so pervasive that we heard numerous examples of where departments and agencies self-select against well-evidenced proposals"
"The Treasury’s core function of maintaining control over the public finances has historically been interpreted through the lens of short-term fiscal discipline. This is expressed most clearly in the emphasis placed on meeting spending control totals within defined timeframes"
"This prioritisation matters. It means that control is often concentrated where it is most achievable, rather than where it is most needed. This is often not the most efficient use of public money."
"heavy-handed Treasury control is applied unevenly and tends to focus on areas that are politically salient, relatively contained, or easier to measure. The Treasury prefers to allocate money in specialised pots for this reason."
Quotes: "during our period of study (1993-2024), mechanisms designed to regulate spending tended towards input control and short-term decision-making, struggled to support strategic investment and often failed to deliver sustained improvements in outcomes."
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · yesterdayThis is the Nuffield research that the incredibly productive Diane Coyle refers to in this article. www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/publications...
I recall we had a period of time where the response of Starmer and Cooper to concerns about these groups was ‘I like flags’
Oxford Clarion@oxfordclarion.bsky.social · yesterdayLeaders of flag-raising group Raise the Colours Oxfordshire placed trackers on highway workers’ cars to find out their home addresses, the High Court has heard. RTC then attempted to intimidate the highway staff into no longer removing flags by repeating their addresses to them.
You are also, fundamentally, just *not* the Conservative Party any more. You're just a new party wearing its clothes. Yes, the tory party evolves over time but...evolution not revolution, and all that.
Chairman Moët@chairmanmoet.bsky.social · yesterdayyou can't build a big enough coalition if Gavin Barwell is too radical for you but an ex-Neo Nazi who broke into a police station isn't
Rob hints at this but it’s worth reiterating that a major failure of the Starmer government was their inability to convey a consistent antiracist message or uphold norms. They confused anger about ‘the boats’ with generalised racism and since they couldn’t denounce the former they avoided the latter
Rob Ford@robfordmancs.bsky.social · yesterdayThis is what happens when anti-racism norms erode, and elites bear a lot of the responsibility for norm erosion, as they have disproportionate power to set and enforce norms
I don't have a lot to add to the Jason Arday discourse but would make one observation - I think in situations like this it is always wide to ask "how would I react to this pattern of behaviour if exhibited by a political opponent/someone whose values/ideology I reject?"
This is what happens when anti-racism norms erode, and elites bear a lot of the responsibility for norm erosion, as they have disproportionate power to set and enforce norms
Charles EP Murphy@cepmurphy.bsky.social · yesterdaynews.sky.com/story/nhs-st... stereotypically this has been seen as Old People, but not only would the old people of now have often been born post-Windrush, lot of this will be younger people who've always lived in a diverse Britain. The guy with a pregnant wife likely millennial at oldest
A useful reminder that the Conservatives' electoral problems are not solely about appeal and image, but also organisational.
Joe Egerton@joeegg.bsky.social · 2d agoThe great Conservative debacle in Greater Manchester has attracted comment by @timbale.bsky.social , @dylandifford.bsky.social , @robertsaunders.bsky.social @stephenkb.bsky.social and others. Electoral Commission data shows the Party's organisational disintegration open.substack.com/pub/jegerton...
The great Conservative debacle in Greater Manchester has attracted comment by @timbale.bsky.social , @dylandifford.bsky.social , @robertsaunders.bsky.social @stephenkb.bsky.social and others. Electoral Commission data shows the Party's organisational disintegration open.substack.com/pub/jegerton...
The Conservative demise in the North West
The debacle in Greater Manchester with the Conservative beaten by both Reform and Restore was the inevitable consequence of the disappearance of any effective organisation in the North West.
open.substack.com
Terrific and rightly angry piece this:
Rory Waterman@rorywaterman.bsky.social · 4d agoSome notes by little me on recent, hugely damaging, shamefully shameless events at Cambridge University. rorywaterman.substack.com/p/notes-on-a-cambridge-debacle If you read only one article about what has happened, try the new piece by Lanre Bakare in the Guardian, linked in my blog post.
Don’t make policy to appease reply guys because reply guys can never be appeased (and are also a small, extreme, self-selected and unrepresentative group)
Liam Thorp@liamthorp.bsky.social · 2d agoAndy Burnham correctly points out in an interview that small boat crossings are massively down this year compared with last. The comments in the post are filled with people suggesting he is lying about this very clear, data-evidenced fact. It’s almost as though they don’t want it to he true…
Few people understand that the UK university system is in crisis, but even fewer realise that many of the people losing their jobs are amongst the best in their fields
Glen O'Hara@gsoh31.bsky.social · 3d agoSo it's farewell to the History subject area at the University of Hertfordshire, not the first nor the last to go. One of the best departments in the country, just extinguished like a snap of the fingers. Think of the waste. (1/2)
Germany, Verian poll: AfD-ESN: 27% CDU/CSU-EPP: 21% (-1) GRÜNE-G/EFA: 15% SPD-S&D: 13% LINKE-LEFT: 12% (+1) FDP-RE: 4% BSW-NI: 3% +/- vs. 24-30 June 2026 Fieldwork: 22-28 July 2026 Sample size: 1456 ➤ europeelects.eu/germany
Alongside the excellent @danieljdunford.bsky.social and @joelysantacruz.bsky.social I have crunched some of the numbers on yesterday's Greater Manchester by-election for Sky News here: news.sky.com/story/comfor...
Comfortable victory, but uncomfortable numbers for Labour in Greater Manchester
Bev Craig's triumph was great news for Labour - but zoom out and the figures show that Labour's first preference share was down 16 points on Andy Burnham's 2024 win.
news.sky.com
Glad someone senior from the sector is pushing back. Labour MPs need to understand the serious real anger from graduates and the people who produce them. And the dangerous financial situation they have allowed to fester, or indeed worsened, in one of Britain’s leading sectors.
Labour has harmed universities as much as Trump, London School of Economics head says
LSE vice-chancellor Larry Kramer points to domestic student fees freeze, international student limits and rise in employers’ national insurance
ft.com
Here is my assessment of the Greater Manchester mayoral election kellnerp.substack.com/p/relief-for...
Relief for Labour: trouble for Reform
Lessons from Britain’s biggest ever by-election
kellnerp.substack.com
One big thing to notice is that Reform were doing better in the lower turnout byelections because their voters would still turn out in higher numbers. If they’ve lost that ability too they’re in real trouble
@peterkellner.bsky.social · 4d agoHere is my assessment of the Greater Manchester mayoral election kellnerp.substack.com/p/relief-for...
Labour's share: Manchester 54% (+23 vs local elections) Stockport 50% (+37) Trafford 50% (+27) Wigan 47% (+22) Bury 47% (+21) Salford 47% (+19) Tameside 42% (+18) Oldham 42% (+21) Rochdale 41% (+16) Bolton 40% (+21)
Labour had been confident since near the beginning of the mayoral election here but *not* at the point Burnham stood in Makerfield. There were genuine fears Reform could take it. I did wonder whether an AB in number 10 would shift the dial automatically but my word did it.
Impressive win for Lab - well ahead of the polling. Nearly didn’t need second round. Disappointing for Reform and Greens. Restore performance remarkable for a party that’s just months old - might have harmed Reform? But Lab would have won comfortably even without them.
Election Maps UK@electionmaps.uk · 5d agoGreater Manchester Mayoral By-Election Result: 🌹 Craig | LAB: 47.2% ➡️ Astley | RFM: 21.0% 🌍 Coggins | GRN: 12.2% ◼️ West | RES: 8.7% 🌳 Eckersley | CON: 7.7% 🔶 Kilpatrick | LDM: 2.2% 🙋 Farmer | Ind: 0.6% 2nd Round: 🌹 Craig | LAB: 66.3% ➡️ Astley | RFM: 33.7% Labour HOLD.