Paul Spicker
@paulspicker.bsky.social
Paul is Emeritus Professor of Public Policy at the Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen. He mainly writes on poverty, benefits, social justice and social policy. Find his published work at https://observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com/paul-spicker/
These are ill-chosen words. The triple lock is not a "random variation" but a (very slow) ratchet. The main argument against that is that it promises better pensions to younger generations without asking them to pay for better pensions now.
Resolution Foundation@resolutionfoundation.org · 3w ago"the generosity of state Pensions shouldn't depend on random variation between three numbers" At our recent event, Ruth Curtice made the case against the triple lock. Rewatch it here ⤵️ buff.ly/LJbSfNL
There's more to plagiarism than not copying words or paraphrasing; the core offence is to pass off someone else's work as one's own. If only a few distinct instances are identified in a text, a marker can no longer fairly evaluate what a student has done and what comes from others.
Jonathan Bailey@plagiarismtoday.com · last mo.Jason Arday's rise to Cambridge has inspired countless people. However, now critics are claiming that his academic work was heavily plagiarized. www.plagiarismtoday.com/2026/07/28/r... #Plagiarism #CambridgeUniversity #Cambridge #AcademicIntegrity
On social care: this is a summary of chapter 5 of my book, How to Fix the Welfare State. policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/how-to-fix-t...
There's a lot of nonsense written on #rent_control. Countries with more renting tend to have more controls. In the UK the main obstacle to higher rents has been.that (a) most renters have limited resources and (b) people who can, opt to buy instead. 'Market rents' reflect demand, not just supply.
An hierarchical ordering: from principles to aims, methods, implementation and outcomes. Once it's done, everyone in the chain should be able to see how they fit.
Giles Wilkes@gilesyb.bsky.social · last mo.What's the difference between an Industrial Strategy and a collection of 300 policy things that can just be loosely described as being part of some whole? What turns a collection into an actual strategy? Sorry, these are the pointless thoughts I'm mostly keeping to myself, thought I'd share
The Timms Review of Personal Independence Payment is right to say that people's understanding of disability has been changing - but quite wrong to accept that PIP is an extra costs benefit. I've tried to explain this at observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com/2025/06/30/r...
Reforming PIP: a “moral imperative”
The government’s recent concessions fall some way short of what would be necessary to make PIP, the Personal Independence Payment, a fairer, more manageable benefit. There’s been some c…
observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com
Paul Spicker@paulspicker.bsky.social · last yr.PIP is not what the government seems to think it is. It's not an 'out of work' benefit. It's not a disincentive to work. It's not an 'extra costs' benefit. What PIP actually does is to offer a supplement to income, to counter long-term disadvantage. tinyurl.com/y8r9kesx
The defence of the realm is not, and never has been, the primary or sole duty of a government. The constant repetition of the principle does not make it true. Here's another, older and much better established duty: Salus populi suprema lex esto Let the welfare of the people be the highest law.
I've received a clutch of requests from book clubs, who want me to pay them so that I can talk about my latest book. As a.public educator, I've delivered free services for many years, but I don't think it's reasonable to ask me to pay for the privilege of working for free.
'Leadership' is such a vague concept it could mean anything. Here's an open access version of my article in the International Journal of Public Sector Management: rgu-repository.worktribe.com/OutputFile/2...
rgu-repository.worktribe.com
Dr Duncan Robertson@duncanrobertson.bsky.social · 3mo agoIs there such a thing as a junior leadership team.
I apologies for suggesting earlier that the UK has 85 taxes. The correct number is 90. And we have an interactive chart that lets you waste at least 15 minutes clicking pretty patterns (and getting depressed). taxpolicy.org.uk/2026/05/28/9...
The UK has 90 taxes. Here they all are
The UK has 90 different taxes. This interactive chart shows them all, & how much each raises. The article explains why UK tax has become so complicated.
taxpolicy.org.uk
What could the govt. do, cheaply, to bring down the cost of living? Here are some quick wins: Bankrupt the water companies Cap civil debt actions Copy Scotland on child payments free prescriptions baby boxes Cap standing & prepayment charges for energy Free public transport for under 25s
How strange to argue about the changing role of the state without considering the explosion of interest in social policy, social protection, health care and social welfare. For an alternative view, try "What is the welfare state for?" bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/trade/what-i...
What Is the Welfare State For?
What Is the Welfare State For?; Welfare states matter for people’s lives – but what are they trying to do, and why? The book discusses the institutions and methods that characterise welfare states aro...
bristoluniversitypress.co.uk
Ilias Alami@iliasalami.bsky.social · 5mo agoOur new piece, collectively authored by the Editorial Board of @econsocjournal.bsky.social, reflecting on the state today. @campolis.bsky.social Link to the full piece below:
This article still supposes there's a trade-off between types of 'spending'. Defence is spending; benefits aren't. Benefits are *transfer payments*, largely economically neutral; the amount of money in the economy is the same after distribution as it was before. They're best paid for by higher tax.
Institute for Government@instituteforgovernment.org.uk · 5mo agoThe “welfare versus defence” framing oversimplifies the difficult trade-offs If Keir Starmer decides to increase defence spending then the trade-offs required go much further than cutting one part of the budget www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/article/comm...
Reconsidering AI: I have to recant In previous postings, I've been supportive of some of the key principles behind AI. I wrote last year: using material to train AI, sometimes called ‘scraping’, is quite different from copying. The LLMs aren’t copying: they’re processing the information. (There…
Reconsidering AI: I have to recant
In previous postings, I've been supportive of some of the key principles behind AI. I wrote last year: using material to train AI, sometimes called ‘scraping’, is quite different from copying. The LLMs aren’t copying: they’re processing the information. (There may be some circumstances where a program does just copy, but the point of doing this by bulk processing is to avoid that situation: simple copying can always be superseded by something richer and deeper.) Processing information – selecting, analysing, representing – is a normal, expected and legitimate use of source material.
observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com
Why social security benefits won’t “bankrupt the country” There have been repeated attacks in the media on the principles of social security. Matthew Elliott told the Lords that "The Government will collect £331bn in income tax this year, and spend £333bn on welfare. In other words, we now spend…
Why social security benefits won’t “bankrupt the country”
There have been repeated attacks in the media on the principles of social security. Matthew Elliott told the Lords that "The Government will collect £331bn in income tax this year, and spend £333bn on welfare. In other words, we now spend more on people not working than we raise from those who do." Robert Jenrick, for Reform, announced that "the benefits bill is a time bomb that will bankrupt the country".
observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com
David and I have clashed bitterly in the past, because we both care about what we're doing. On this issue, however, he's absolutely in the right. Universities, and social science, depend on our ability to disagree with each other.
Professor Alice Sullivan@profalices.bsky.social · 8mo agoSolidarity with Professor David Gordon. The way he has been treated by University of Bristol management is a scandal. www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2026/01...
The Acts of Elizabeth came much later, in 1598 and 1601. The earlier Tudor Acts were partly punitive, but the Act of 1536 was also influenced by the 1531 defence of welfare provision made on behalf of the city of Ypres. Read the astonishing Ypres report at rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1238880
The origins of modern welfare: city of Ypres, the government of poor relief.
The two books included in The Origins of Modern Welfare are probably the earliest studies ever written in the field of Social Policy, and among the earlies...
rgu-repository.worktribe.com
Paul Bivand@paulbivand.bsky.social · 8mo agoRather curious why (in England) the last year of Elizabeth 1 saw both the Poor relief act and the act defining charities (part of which I think remains influential). The Poor law moving from the earlier very punitive to something which (for the seventeenth century) had some generosity.
Vives published his arguments for welfare in January, 1526. It's the 500th anniversary of that work.
@tina-hearn.bsky.social · 8mo agoOne of the earliest known commissioned studies on #socialpolicy available at: rgu-repository.worktribe.com/output/1238872 via @paulspicker.bsky.social #poverty #socialwelfare
‘tis the season to be jolly… wrong, in the Daily Mail. This time the Mail manages to give a 3 child family on benefits over £25k more than is correct when comparing with a single high earner. benefitsinthefuture.com/tis-the-seas... #benefits #work #dailymail
‘tis the season to be jolly… misleading, in the Daily Mail – Benefits in the Future
There might almost seem to be a deliberate campaign by some of the press to mislead or distort the rules and rates around benefits entitlements. In particular, there seems to be a trend, amongst the u...
benefitsinthefuture.com
A Korean translation of my edition of two 16th-century works of social policy has been published at jeniecreative2025.imweb.me . For those who, like myself, can't read or speak a word of Korean, the English edition is freely available at observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com/open-access/...
지니크리에이티브
기독교 역사 전문서적 출판사
jeniecreative2025.imweb.me
This clip is from legal theorist AV Dicey, writing in 1917.
Jess Piper@piperformissouri.bsky.social · 9mo agoListen, if you tell me that “taxation is theft” I’m going to need you to quit driving on highways or walking on sidewalks or attending a public school or using police or fire services or city snow removal. I would mention libraries, but…
The BBC should reject Trump's libel claim. 1. The words used were Trump's own. 2. The edit still put two sides - it could have stopped with his call to "fight". 3. Trump has pleaded immunity: these are the words of the POTUS, not an individual. 4. There is no evidence of reputational damage.
I agree - but there's more to managing immigration than revising the system of controls. observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com/2025/09/10/w...
Why we need an Immigration Service
The debate in the UK about immigration has been constructed in terms that are almost wholly negative. Politicians talk about controlling borders and treating some people as ‘illegal’. T…
observant-paulspicker.wordpress.com
Carla Denyer@carladenyer.bsky.social · 10mo agoHere's my report with @zoejardiniere.bsky.social on how and why the failing Home Office should be broken up: carladenyer.co.uk/no-way-home/
If the i paper is right, 'lifting' the 2-child limit might be for working families only, or a 3-child limit. Neither is good enough. Both exclude some of the poorest children. Both impose a penalty for blending families. And both call for questions about rape.
In "What is the welfare state for?", I argued that welfare provision is now the norm for all governments. bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/trade/what-i... A new report from the ILO on social justice researchrepository.ilo.org/view/deliver... shows less poverty, less inequality, better social provision.
researchrepository.ilo.org
There are many such critiques - here are two of mine. *What is the welfare state for?* (2025) is about welfare states round the world, bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/trade/what-i... *How to fix the welfare state* (2022) policy.bristoluniversitypress.co.uk/how-to-fix-t... is about Britain.
bristoluniversitypress.co.uk
The EU is consulting on anti-poverty strategy. ec.europa.eu/info/law/bet... They see that poverty is multi-dimensional (correct) and plan to look at intergenerational continuity (largely a myth. Longitudinal studies point to 3 main predictors: education, partnering and the state of the economy.)
European Commission - Have your say
European Commission - Have your say
ec.europa.eu
I'm not sure where the figure of 6.5 million people on 'out of work' benefits comes from, but mainly it's 1.6m on "unemployment benefits" and 3.5 m on "incapacity benefits" (www.gov.uk/government/p...) Incapacity means it is "not reasonable" to expect claimants to work: Welfare Reform Act 2012.
Benefit expenditure and caseload tables 2025
Historic and forecast benefit expenditure and caseload data usually consistent with the annual spring and autumn Budgets or Statements.
gov.uk
The debate over #gerrymandering reveals a major difference between US and European democracy. The US approach (Federalist 46) is meant to subordinate local interests to national priorities. The European ideal is to treat each constituency as an integral geographic community. Neither method works.