Pavel Slunkin
@pavelslunkin.bsky.social
Political analyst, ECFR. Former diplomat. Currently at Harvard
The body of Vladislav Baumgertner, former head of Uralkali, Russian potash giant, has reportedly just been found in Cyprus. His biography includes an episode from political tragicomedy involving a head of Belarus’ government and special services. Thread with an inside below🧵
Lukashenka about the U.S. negotiators: “The Americans told us that we must immediately publicly apologize to Lithuania. So I said: “They can f*** off.”
News of “authoritarian stability”: In Belarus, a YouTube channel featuring children’s fairy tales in the Belarusian language has been declared “extremist.” The stories were about hedgehogs, mice, and foxes. The forced Russification of the country continues.
Summary of Lukashenka’s interview with @shustry.bsky.social from TIME: “Trump is a blabbermouth. I am a Trumpist”
I’m watching a video of distinguished, talented American diplomats departing the State Department to the applause of their colleagues and the tearful embraces of loved ones waiting outside. My heart is with you today. ⬇️ 🧵
How a Ukrainian taxi driver helped me get into Harvard. A Sunday thread 🧵
Lukashenka VS His opponent Tsikhanouski What do you notice?
A thread 🧵 by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social on xhitter about meeting between Lukashenka 🇧🇾 and Kellogg 🇺🇸 💁♂️
One of yesterday's big stories was the surprise release of political prisoners by the illegitimate "president" of Belarus. Very interesting points made on Xitter by @pavelslunkin.bsky.social about the meeting between potato dictator Lukashenko and US Special Envoy Keith Kellogg.
Belarusian jails in two pictures: Tsikhanouski before and after imprisonment
Funny moment: Keith Kellog describes Lukashenka’s office: “With all this gold, it looks a lot like Mar-a-Lago.” The Belarusian Ambassador to the UN, interpreting, mistranslated it as: “It’s better to see this than a golf club at Mar-a-Lago.”
After Kellog’s visit to Belarus, Lukashenka released Siarhei Tsikhanouski — a former presidential candidate and the husband of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya who was arrested by the regime — along with 13 other political prisoners. Siarhei and Sviatlana met in Vilnius. Such great news!
9 years ago, I met Pope Francis for the first time at the UN General Assembly. He said that international law and human rights 'are lights which help to dispel the darkness of the disorder caused by unrestrained ambitions.' Today, these words sound even more resonant and urgent.
From RAND 2019 report: “Russia is not a peer or near-peer competitor but rather a well-armed rogue state that seeks to subvert an international order it can never hope to dominate. China is a peer competitor that wants to shape an international order that it can aspire to dominate”
U.S. policy once served as a clear deterrent for autocrats, who knew there were lines not to cross. Now, those lines are gone. A NATO member can arrest the leading opposition figure - the mayor of the largest city, ban protests and media coverage, and Washington won’t care. /1 ⬇️
Americans traditionally stop supporting U.S.’s war efforts three years after the start of military action. Ukraine fits into this trend of fatigue. Chart by Matthew Baum
Georgia. The hundredth (!!!) day of protests. Without a break. Without excuses. When democracy is breaking down all over the world. This is called perseverance and resilience. ❤️
A photo that reflects my mood: complete darkness, pouring rain, and strong winds all around. But thanks to decent people, there is light. And hope.
A lesson learned by Belarusians over the past five years. It will be useful for my European and American friends who keep asking, “Where is the bottom?!” Well, there is no bottom. Brace yourselves - it will only get worse. And worse. And worse.
Дорогі українці, хочу ще раз сказати вам, як я вами захоплююся. Незважаючи на божевільну несправедливість, яка триває вже понад 11 років, ви показуєте світу, що таке стійкість і навіть знаходите в собі сили жартувати. Обіймаю вас! І дуже люблю. ❤️❤️❤️
There was another greatest-ever deal on rare earth minerals. In 2017. With Afganistan
Speaking of dictators. In 2018, when asked whether he planned to run for president in 2030, Putin responded: "Let’s do the math. What, am I supposed to sit here until I’m 100 years old? No." In 2021, Putin changed the Constitution, allowing him to remain in power until 2036.
Cowards may salute dictators, but Ukraine will defend its freedom. Three years ago, Russia felt what it’s like
