Russell A. Carleton
@pizzacutter4.bsky.social
Baseball Prospectus (emeritus) | author of "The Shift: The Next Evolution in Baseball Thinking" and "The New Ballgame: The Not-So-Hidden Forces Shaping Modern Baseball" (Triumph) | Quad-A Sabermetrician | he/him
ABS is going to kill catcher framing, but it's going to create a new class of catchers who are good at working the ABS system.
Wrote about a bunch of learnings from ABS data in the majors and minors ... www.mlb.com/news/abs-cha...
congrats to my @baseballprospectus.com colleagues @srbrown70.bsky.social, @depstein1983.bsky.social, @stevengoldman.bsky.social and RJ McDaniel, and all the other finalists on their nominations!
Congrats to all the finalists for the 2026 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards! sabr.org/latest/annou... Voting for the winners begins next week. Thanks to @baseballprospectus.com, @fangraphs.com, @sportsinfosolutions.com, @ibwaa.bsky.social for their contributions to the selection process.
Congrats to all the finalists for the 2026 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards! sabr.org/latest/annou... Voting for the winners begins next week. Thanks to @baseballprospectus.com, @fangraphs.com, @sportsinfosolutions.com, @ibwaa.bsky.social for their contributions to the selection process.
Today, I am grateful for...
Retrosheet is pleased to announce its second semi-annual release of 2025, which includes play-by-play files for the 1910 and 2025 seasons, box-score files for the 1898 season, and a deep dive into the 1935 Negro League season. www.retrosheet.org/fall2025rele...
Hey, SABR hasn't put both its feet into bluesky yet (I know, a lot of its people have) but this is a good time to remind you that the SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards are open for nominations. When you have a few minutes, please nominate some of your favorite baseball research from 2025.
Seeking nominations for 2026 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards – Society for American Baseball Research
sabr.org
The Cleveland Guardians are looking for talented Data Scientists to add to their R&D department. Apply here: job-boards.greenhouse.io/clevelandgua... Fire questions my way if you want.
Data Scientist
Cleveland, Ohio, United States
job-boards.greenhouse.io
Some personal news: After 15 occasionally interrupted years @baseballprospectus.com providing weekly #GoryMath, I am taking a step back. No, I haven't been hired by a team or another outlet. No, I'm not doing a Substack. No, I'm not mad at BP. They're amazing. Yes, I will still write occasionally.
As always, my sources tell me "Dude, we're a little busy today. Can't really talk." They tell me that when it's not the trade deadline too.
Shameless self-promotion: Let's talk about actual rule changes that might just happen in the near future. @baseballprospectus.com www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
So You’ve Decided To Change Some Rules | Baseball Prospectus
An analysis of how likely MLB is to edit its rulebook, and what the effects might be.
baseballprospectus.com
From the archives: For some reason, this seems relevant. www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
The Guardian Angels of Rationality | Baseball Prospectus
What the Angels did with the waiver wire in August has been analyzed again and again, but they were just one side of that equation.
baseballprospectus.com
In 1997, Jed Hoyer was an admissions officer at Kenyon College and I was a high school senior. After he did my admissions interview for what became my alma mater, he confided that he wanted to some day get a job working in baseball. Apparently, it worked.
My goodness gracious. The #Cubs extend Jed Hoyer. Full initial news and reaction @northsidebaseball.com: northsidebaseball.com/news-rumors/...
1/ I wanted to bring this thread to BlueSky (with some new information!) It's about the "Sockalexis Myth" that the Cleveland Guardians, formerly Cleveland Indians, were so named as an honor to former player Louis Sockalexis. There is very little evidence for this idea.
Want to have a great second half to your season? Subscribe to @baseballprospectus.com!
As you might guess, while trending up is a good thing, 2% is not enough to fend off a potential price increase. So here I am asking again to help us keep our price an insanely affordable $45.95 for what you get. It's a great time to subscribe with our Midseason 50 out and the deadline coming up.
Couple years ago I wrote about how the O's had the right idea pushing the fence back, and the league as a whole should start changing dimensions all over to adjust to the kinds of athletes and analytics present in today's game, a la the NBA over its history. Vindicated by @pizzacutter4.bsky.social
The Rest of the League Should Copy the Orioles | Baseball Prospectus
Or, at least, they should copy the recent structural changes to Camden Yards, and the spirit that revolutionized how the NBA's game was played again and again.
baseballprospectus.com
The Spider Problem by Russell A. Carleton (@pizzacutter4.bsky.social) www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article...
Last day for Saberseminar abstracts! docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1F...
Saberseminar Abstract Submission Form
Thank you for considering presenting your work at Sabermetrics, Scouting, and the Science of Baseball 2025. Because of your efforts, we have grown to be a national meeting known for showcasing new, or...
docs.google.com
Every decade or so, I get a reminder that I used to be Catholic.
On being called DEI and why it isn’t the burn they think it is
Send Meredith your game-used balls for SCIENCE
If the ball really is “more jumpy,” higher EV is the only thing that makes sense. (So far, drag is *UP.*👇) That requires modifying the center (pill plus yarn) to change the COR…and MLB admitted they did exactly that to deaden the ball in 2020/21. HELP ME FIND OUT! I NEED BASEBALLS!!! 🙏 ⚾️⚾️👀
Shameless self-promotion: Did the 2024 Tigers show us the future of pitching?
Skubal and the Gang by Russell A. Carleton (@pizzacutter4.bsky.social)