Resolution has applied my model to data up to 2025. As the chart shows, we can be less confident as time goes on. But firm-level evidence from Bloom et al shows a 6% loss. I think it's time to retire the OBR's 4%, which was a simple average of pre-Brexit forecasts.

Mark Chadbourn@chadbourn.bsky.social · 4mo ago

The economic damage caused by Brexit may be almost double the 4% impact assumed by the OBR, the Resolution Foundation has revealed.

This is a lot of ‘fun’🙈 — which is to say, genius illumination of fiscal drag effects. Dragging stealth tax out of the shadows, into the light.

Alan Smith@theboysmithy.ft.com · 8mo ago

New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL

New: 'Shark's fin' chart reveals the uneven impact of 'fiscal drag', the stealth tax beloved of recent chancellors. Plus use our interactive calculator to see how fresh freezes announced by Rachel Reeves at todays Budget could affect you on.ft.com/3KqOYUL

Lords Heseltine & Kinnock seem more alive to these self-evident truths than most members of the Commons. Similarly, I find thinkers with direct lived experience of far right dictatorship, Greeks of a certain age for example, crystal clear about what’s happening now.

BBC Newsnight@bbcnewsnight.bsky.social · 10mo ago

“You described Reform and other parties across Europe today as among the 'right wing equivalents of the fascists in the 1930s'. Why?” “Because that’s what they are” @vicderbyshire.bsky.social asks Lord Heseltine about remarks he made at Conservative Party Conference. #Newsnight

AI pushers talk about it "augmenting" capacity, but that ignores human nature. Why walk or bike, when you can drive? It's easier, so most of us do, but you get fat & lazy. AI will do the same to a lot of people's brains, I fear. Via @financialtimes.com piece on AI habits ig.ft.com/ai-personal-...

WTO clings to signs Donald Trump still needs it — sometimes—While the US President’s unilateral tariffs have ridden roughshod over the WTO’s core principle of reciprocity in trade, diplomats argue… www.ft.com/content/15a9... @pmdfoster.bsky.social @financialtimes.com

WTO clings to signs Donald Trump still needs it — sometimes

US takes ‘à la carte’ approach to global trade body, suggesting it has not completely turned its back on rules-based order

ft.com

Brutal BBC piece on how fast Switzerland’s glaciers are melting. Drill baby drill. 🎶🎵 www.bbc.co.uk/news/article...

Magnificent peroration to Simon Schama’s @financialtimes.com weekend essay on defending freedom of speech in the era of Trump - with help from Milton, Jefferson et al. on.ft.com/4gSqvDw Simon Schama: What America’s Founders can teach Trump about liberty

Living. Working. Paying taxes. Contributing. This is a desperately poor editorial.

Brutal new MRP poll out today showing Reform at 311 and Labour support collapsing. Worth reading steaming @financialtimes.com column on Starmer by @robertshrimsley.bsky.social “Starmer can’t afford to wait for reckless Reform to implode” on.ft.com/3VxxCaR

Financing infrastructure without unnerving the bond market @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social @tonytassell.bsky.social @pickardje.bsky.social @marymcd.bsky.social @pmdfoster.bsky.social @greenmirandahere.bsky.social

Thomas Aubrey@thomasaubreycca.bsky.social · 11mo ago

My latest @bennettschool.cam.ac.uk piece on how the Chancellor can finance the next wave of infrastructure without unnerving the bond market. The Chancellor’s attempt to increase capital investment resulted in a negative reaction from the bond market. As www.bennettschool.cam.ac.uk/blog/financi...

'Tylenol' is known in the civilised world as Paracetamol 2.4 million children born in Sweden between 1995 and 2019. Studied 186,000 children whose mothers were treated with paracetamol during pregnancy. news.ki.se/no-link-betw...

No link between paracetamol use during pregnancy and autism or ADHD in children

In the largest epidemiologic study to date of the risk of giving birth to a child with autism, ADHD or intellectual disability following acetaminophen use during pregnancy, researchers found no associ...

news.ki.se

I use this graph a lot.

John Oxley@joxley.jmoxley.co.uk · 11mo ago

People say "autism never used to exist" and then you go to the Natural History Museum and the exhibit has a caption like "Born in 1762, The Revd [name] was famously irascible, steadfast in his routine, and dedicated his life to collecting 25,000 rare beetle specimens".

The data is in -- tourism to US dropped after Trump came in, while tourism recovered in rest of world...foreign arrivals at American airports down 3.8% compared with 2024, or 1.3m fewer people. With more Americans going the other way. See charts via @economist.com www.economist.com/graphic-deta...

To even allow the appearance of this — Starmer’s No 10 adopting Trumpian media management policies — seems extraordinary to me. Very depressing.

Passion from WTO founder James Bacchus at @wto.org panel on “The WTO without the United States?” “I have a message for 165 of the 166 members of the WTO: ‘stop letting the United States of America push you around. Stand up for your rights under the WTO treaty’. …’use it or lose it’” Cue applause.

on.ft.com/4nhvSyM NEW: Trump tariffs on EU medical devices will drive up US patient bills, industry claims …with a very testy White House response, which usually means they’re worried about it. Me and @judewebber.bsky.social for @financialtimes.com

Spending a couple of days at the @wto.org in Geneva taking the pulse at the annual Public Forum — the “Woodstock of world trade” as one rather enthusiastic participant put it. Lots of jokes about whether WTO even has a pulse these days. Might be on life support, but not dead quite yet…

Tariff exemptions to follow? 😏

Even Trump has had to walk back on this a bit, but the wider point as we've seen before is that raising barriers harms investment because companies need access to imports and skills. There's no new economic paradigm being created in the US.

Christopher Webb@cwebbonline.com · 11mo ago

Something folks are missing here: this raid wasn’t about “illegals taking American jobs.” It was about ICE storming the Hyundai–LG battery plant in Georgia, part of a $7.6B Metaplant project that isn’t even operational yet. 🧵

The data that shows the internet removes guardrails and fuels populism — it’s either the unfiltered “will of the people” or digital mob rule. Take your pick. Grabs from @jburnmurdoch.ft.com piece here: on.ft.com/45WUaGw The end of the gatekeepers

What stood out to me from Richard Tice’s interview on #BBCR4Today was his praise of the economic policies of… George Osborne. I wonder if that stood out for @nadinedorries.bsky.social too?

Indeed: the populists do make people poorer, but then they blame anyone but themselves: immigrants, unions, foreign wars etc. Poor people are disgruntled. Ripe for exploitation by populists. Rinse and repeat. (As we’re seeing now)

David Henig@davidheniguk.bsky.social · 11mo ago

As we prepare for the next tidal wave of nonsense around Reform in the UK, two points should stand out as the core rebuttal - economic issues the UK faces are the same as many other countries - populist right policies have made those issues worse

As we prepare for the next tidal wave of nonsense around Reform in the UK, two points should stand out as the core rebuttal - economic issues the UK faces are the same as many other countries - populist right policies have made those issues worse

Peter Foster@pmdfoster.bsky.social · 11mo ago

Honking endorsement for Farage, Johnson et la, without a moment’s reflection that 10 years of UKIPified Tory govt created the mess they’re railing about — booming benefits bills, bond market routs, immigration surges, trade slump and investment slumps. Bring back Boris and Nadine! That’ll fix it. 🙈

Honking endorsement for Farage, Johnson et la, without a moment’s reflection that 10 years of UKIPified Tory govt created the mess they’re railing about — booming benefits bills, bond market routs, immigration surges, trade slump and investment slumps. Bring back Boris and Nadine! That’ll fix it. 🙈

Useful comment about the complexity of de-globalization. @pmdfoster.bsky.social on.ft.com/47VkL9D

Transcript: After globalisation — What’s next for a fractured world? With Neil Shearing

Peter Foster talks to Neil Shearing

on.ft.com

UK advertises contract to run Erasmus scheme Tender indicates ministers are preparing ground to rejoin European student swap programme. More from @financialtimes.com @pmdfoster.bsky.social @amyborrett.ft.com @andybounds.bsky.social on.ft.com/4pg1XbA #education #educationnews

UK advertises contract to run Erasmus scheme

Tender indicates ministers are preparing ground to rejoin European student swap programme

on.ft.com

What a picture. Captions anyone?