We should immediately start retraining people to think of polling like "the line" in sports gambling: A consensus middle guess at the outcome you can guess around, but not a prediction of the outcome

Reconstructionist@unavaleable.bsky.social · 6h ago

We love polling don't we?

like, it would be 100x more fruitful in coming up with "how do we lower prices" plan over "how do we triangulate on social issues?"

Sharon 🪳🌹@sharonk.bsky.social · last wk.

it really is remarkable how almost all Dem sparring over 2024 happens over social issues, instead of like, "how do we prevent a 2020-2024 style shock again?"

In 1990, disability rights activists organized the Capitol Crawl to demand passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act. Their organizing efforts helped shine a light on the barriers disabled Americans faced, & built support for one of the most important civil rights laws in our nation's history.

A. If the scientific study of a society keeps revealing discrimination/resistance as it's primary structures, maybe that's real B. Yes, all fields have precepts that affect the insights within C. Sure does rely on a lot of sociology insights to make an argument D. Just say "I want to fire commies"

Magdalena Donea | 🇷🇴 🇬🇷 🏳️‍🌈 ♿️@maggy.kia.net · 2w ago

Here's a gift link if needed. www.wsj.com/us-news/educ...

Agreed: That Korean office study that clearly showed airborne transmission was in March iirc, and I had to watch every doctor, public health org, govt. official, and news story be 100% wrong for like a year... I'm not sure how that damaged me, but of course it did, it's a tear in my social fabric!

Ted Underwood@tedunderwood.com · 2w ago

My belief that we're modern has never recovered from the discovery that we didn't know how coronaviruses spread. We thought it was droplets and spent six months telling people to wash their groceries. It's a very common class of viruses!

I've learned an incredible amount from members of the @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social extended universe, & I regularly recommend the podcast to non-wonks as a fun way to learn a little about the emerging changes in proliferation that will affect us all sooner or later. Glad to see them getting a home!

Aaron Stein@aaronstein1.bsky.social · 2w ago

Over on the podcast @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have talked about these issues for over a decade (really, its been 14 years). The team coming to @fpri.bsky.social was an obvious next step. We have big plans. Let's rock. Check out the press release here: www.fpri.org/news/2026/07...

I've learned an incredible amount from members of the @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social extended universe, & I regularly recommend the podcast to non-wonks as a fun way to learn a little about the emerging changes in proliferation that will affect us all sooner or later. Glad to see them getting a home!

Aaron Stein@aaronstein1.bsky.social · 2w ago

Over on the podcast @armscontrolwonk.bsky.social and I have talked about these issues for over a decade (really, its been 14 years). The team coming to @fpri.bsky.social was an obvious next step. We have big plans. Let's rock. Check out the press release here: www.fpri.org/news/2026/07...

The policy question "Should Federal taxpayers bail out states when this blows up in their faces" is big enough to blow up the current party coalition structure. I'm a "no" btw, and would rather join a tax strike than to subsidize the suicidal choices being made by residents in climate change zones

Urban Land Rent 🇸🇴🚰@urbanlandrent.bsky.social · 2w ago

This is the first time I’ve ever seen a CA publication speak plainly about both the stakes (and the basic distributional politics involved) The FAIR plan is a ticking time bomb and the primary problem is it promises to insure uninsurable property for rich people. www.latimes.com/business/sto...

Just in time for parents to buy new sets of hockey equipment in the next 45 days

The New York Times@nytimes.com · 2w ago

President Trump signed an order imposing a 50% tariff on a wide range of goods from Canada, including hockey sticks, wine and cement.

About 90 minutes ago I looked through my podcast list to get prepared for the hockey-podcast-free summer, and looked sadly and longingly at the 2023 date on the most recent Whiskey & IR episode. Choosing to believe that I've manifested this.

Dan Nexon@dhnexon.net · 2w ago

We're baaaack!!! With the episode this podcast could not avoid forever... or at least for more than *checks calendar* 3 years. Yep. @profptj.bsky.social and I discuss 🥁🥁🥁 Samuel Huntington's _Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order_. And may god have mercy on our souls.

"The leftists" is a teeming coalition that includes this group, but also their opposite: folks whose real concern is that changing job structures/culture have left them feeling less connected and secure in their communities, and properly blame capitalists and landlords for that!

Shoe@shoe.bsky.social · 2w ago

I think a lot of anti-capitalists just resent working. Like work is in every system, sorry. And really, if not, you should hope for AI to replace all the jobs.

Today is leftists and economics, but we're going to come to the same point w/ environmentalism: Some people cared a lot about global warming because they thought fixing it would require global revolution. But if solar/batteries solves some things more simply, the coalition will have to adapt

Policy in the Future@policyfuture.bsky.social · 2w ago

As a leftist, I'll admit that a lot of thinking is stuck in the Battle of Seattle/IMF/WB days. The activists were broadly correct then, but a lot changed since! Also, international trade has been a big part of the intl dev and China successes that have improved lives since then. Gotta update priors!

As a leftist, I'll admit that a lot of thinking is stuck in the Battle of Seattle/IMF/WB days. The activists were broadly correct then, but a lot changed since! Also, international trade has been a big part of the intl dev and China successes that have improved lives since then. Gotta update priors!

川上信 (Shin Kawakami)🇯🇵🇨🇳🇺🇸@nkfinity.bsky.social · 2w ago

I think one factor underlying a lot of economics discourse is a lot of leftists associate economists with bunk RW economic theory (definitely is a thing) but haven’t updated their priors on just how much economics as a field in general have improved in terms of empirical rigor to prove theories.

USA: We don't want to take climate change seriously Canada: We would like to take it somewhat seriously. If the world doesn't stop temp rises, our massive forests will turn into savannah one fire at a time. USA: More climate change please! Canada's Trees: OK, fires it is USA:

Futurama: Leela Demands 'Fix It!'

ALT: Futurama: Leela Demands 'Fix It!'

static.klipy.com

While it never went away in Japanese TV as fully, there's been a bit of a resurgence in prominent smoking in anime for sure in the last year or so. There's like a cultural rhythm/cycle thing going on here too that should be part of the public health counter strategy I think

dan solomon@dansolomon.com · 3w ago

are young people today aware that there was an active effort 20-25 years ago to stop depicting smoking as cool and glamorous because people got tired of watching their loved ones die of cancer and heart disease from something preventable? seems like classic history repeating itself stuff

The idea of *paywalling a store* is so bizarre, so anti-business, so destructive to making money, that I'm actually shocked that someone in Sony didn't stop this. I'd love to read the memo that maths this out. One million MBAs typing for a million years couldn't come up with an idea this cursed.

MangaAlerts@mangaalerts.com · 3w ago

Crunchyroll announced they are changing the Crunchyroll Store • In August, you will need to be a Mega or Ultimate Fan to access the CR Store • The new experience will feature curated drops and Crunchyroll‑exclusive merch • Select Items will be 50% off starting tomorrow

Not exactly the sense of "offensive" being discussed here, but something like this is why I think politicians shouldn't swear. I'm a very sweary person myself, but I think they'll always lose more gettable "could be worse" votes than they'll gain in the dramatics of a moment.

Jonn Elledge@jonnelledge.bsky.social · 3w ago

A key thing people across the spectrum seem to have lost sight of is the electoral benefits of being inoffensive. You need a lot of people to think "Eh, could be worse, I guess" and for some reason - social media? - a lot of modern politics pushes people away from that

Turned the audio on hoping that Amanda had overdubbed this farewell with "In the Arms of an Angel", but I think the actual background songs are much funnier

amanda moore 🐢@noturtlesoup17.bsky.social · 4w ago

Closed out the final day of the Great American State Fair tonight. Here’s a quick video showcasing some of the architecture on its last night.

This is beautiful because you can zoom into any section and find 2 new wrong things

Helder Gil@hgil.bsky.social · 4w ago

New Metro maps just dropped.

Very high on the list of "Reasons not to Do This" was the possibility that this could boil over into a regional Iran/Gulf conflict. I would not underestimate the intensity of the constituencies on both sides who are itching for that possibility, high potential for escalation

Shipwreck@shipwreck75.bsky.social · 4w ago

Appears the GCC may have attacked Iran, not US. Expecting things to ramp up tonight with escalation from both sides.

As a long time fan of the Binface project, I encourage Americans to tune into what will be the funniest bit of politics in a long time. Also, noting that the first sentence means "I processed his resignation" but GB is delirious cartoon world so it sounds like that

Josiah Mortimer@josiahmortimer.bsky.social · 4w ago

Spicy

I suppose the corollary to this would be the moment that someone speaks aloud the words "I wonder if Koizumi-san could do a better job here" that Takaichi's position is immediately strengthened

Policy in the Future@policyfuture.bsky.social · last mo.

As a whole, recent developments don't give the impression that internal/partner/opposition forces are trying to take down the govt, but just seem to want to debate/fix actual policies that seem shaky and underdone. This ironically seems more dangerous politically: The critiques don't seem craven!

As a whole, recent developments don't give the impression that internal/partner/opposition forces are trying to take down the govt, but just seem to want to debate/fix actual policies that seem shaky and underdone. This ironically seems more dangerous politically: The critiques don't seem craven!

Tobias Harris@tobiasharris.bsky.social · last mo.

Quick (free) Japan Daily Briefing: Takaichi government downplays a spike in long-term yields. Parliamentary gridlock is spilling over into the extra-parliamentary National Conference on Social Security’s deliberations on the government’s consumption tax cut plan. open.substack.com/pub/observin...

Just going to say this every time as a DC person: The Guard as deployed can't address the underlying *or surface* levels of crime because they don't do anything here, they just stand around.

Clay Copper@claycopper.bsky.social · last mo.

CQ coming out swinging on Pete in FA is not going to change the trajectory of the US while costing him a seat on the board of Theranos II: Defense Boogaloo, but why write anything at all if your strongest criticism of the last 18 months is "the Guard can't address the root causes of crime"

Countries that don't have something like birthright citizenship argue about citizenship rules and their administration *constantly*, it's a huge costly and distracting wing of politics that the US has opted out of. People would not enjoy joining them, it's an annoying topic to make policy on

Olivia Waite@oliviawaite.com · last mo.

Per last repost, I do think that in the US a lot of people, like a LOT of people, do not realize that if a birth certificate is no longer proof of citizenship then most of us have no proof of citizenship. At all.

I think our British, and Japanese friends would be surprised to hear that Parliamentary Supremacy leads to Full Communism or whatever

Sharon 🪳🌹@sharonk.bsky.social · last mo.

one thing that I find remarkable is that it is surprisingly left/radical coded in some spaces to think that Congress needs institutional reform in order to allow for more functional government

Instead of this tone-deaf 2029 stuff, we're gonna need to build a full shovel-ready government-in-waiting: Shadow secretaries and senior staff, hiring experts, congressional liasons, completed piles of day 1 EOs ready to sign, all of it. Don't have time to not do it with what's coming

Too Big to Fail@toobigtofail.bsky.social · last mo.

The EPA has about 12,000 employees. If Trump fires all of them (civil service regulations cannot survive Slaughter), and just doesn't have an EPA for the rest of his term, what is a new President going to do to rebuild the agency and start enforcement in a meaningful way within 4 years? How?

There's a lot of discussion this morning that has an element of "Was Marbury v. Madison wrongly decided, but leftishly." If we have to choose one branch to have supremacy, I would choose the one that's regularly elected... And that was the Founder's vision as well.

jamelle@jamellebouie.net · last mo.

this is absolutely wild. where does roberts think these agencies come from?!? who invested them with authority to act? whose mandate are they designed to execute? the president is the chief EXECUTive. his job is executing the will of Congress as it spells out in its duly-passed laws!

Get ready for *really* disruptive transitions between admins, a golden age of patronage, and most of all a shocking loss of talent: Why sign up when any job or commission will be only 4 years or less?

Policy in the Future@policyfuture.bsky.social · last mo.

This combined with the OMB attacks on the civil service are a body blow: If you can fire on day one all the agency boards(and their staff), and the non-political civil service leadership, well, just no continuing expertise anywhere then...

This combined with the OMB attacks on the civil service are a body blow: If you can fire on day one all the agency boards(and their staff), and the non-political civil service leadership, well, just no continuing expertise anywhere then...

Mark Joseph Stern@mjsdc.bsky.social · last mo.

We have Slaughter and Cook. By a 6–3 vote, SCOTUS overturns Humphrey's Executor and lets Trump fire heads of independent agencies. But by a 5–4 vote, it refuses to let him fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve. www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p... www.supremecourt.gov/opinions/25p...