Question put to me today: if Farage resigned, would Reform implode? I’m sceptical. Farage is an asset for Reform, and a liability. He costs them and gains them votes. Perhaps more a liability now. So the question is: who would take over? And could they take more votes from Tories, or Restore?

Actually, Americans are just like you. ~20-30% of them genuinely support fascism, as in ~every 🇪🇺 country. You are just more fortunate to have political institutions & a multiparty system that prevent that 20-30% from fully capturing the center-right party, becoming 51%, & controlling the government.

Philip Stephens@philipstephens.bsky.social · 5mo ago

Time to admit it. Americans are not like us. Latest Inside-Out column open.substack.com/pub/philipst...

The ‘Burnham Bounce’ is small but that’s not the point. The point is whether he can turn it into solid, increased, sustained support, not momentary interest, and we won’t know that for 6+ months. You obviously don’t sensibly call early elections on fragile moments, and talk of it now is unserious.

A different way of doing politics also means a change to the ecosystem that has sustained it the way it was. Very, very interesting if it persists.

Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social · 4d ago

Aside from the politics of ‘actually getting stuff done’ under Burnham (I think *hugely* significant to avert loss of faith in the system, not just Labour) there’s a fascinating pivot away from the usual people and way of doing things around Westminster.

Aside from the politics of ‘actually getting stuff done’ under Burnham (I think *hugely* significant to avert loss of faith in the system, not just Labour) there’s a fascinating pivot away from the usual people and way of doing things around Westminster.

Watch for Greens going down to see Reform struggle in polls and council by-elections. This has, for two years, been primarily about the left splitting making Reform’s *relative* position stronger. If the Conservatives go up, that is about Reform’s vote losses due to Farage etc.

May = ‘competent’ Brexit-supporting Remainer. Undone by a campaign. Johnson = a campaigner. Undone by distrust in a crisis. Lets skip over Truss and Sunak. Starmer = not political, steady as you go, competent manager. Needed vision, nouse. Burnham = has latter. Does he have the next thing??

Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social · 2w ago

One thought today. When parties switch leaders, they’ve been seen as answers to recent problems. But they get undone by different problems they’re not well suited to. Burnham meets the need for relatability, political skill, a plan. But his biggest challenges will be ones we can’t yet see coming.

One thought today. When parties switch leaders, they’ve been seen as answers to recent problems. But they get undone by different problems they’re not well suited to. Burnham meets the need for relatability, political skill, a plan. But his biggest challenges will be ones we can’t yet see coming.

If pubs passed on savings to customers who have spent the last years struggling to afford a meal out, an actual cost of living benefit which isn’t just about supporting the sector or a cheaper pint (also often a core part of a community).

Liam Thorp@liamthorp.bsky.social · 2w ago

Have the British public always been so self centred? I’m staggered by how many people I’ve seen saying ‘I don’t use buses so what good is that?’ Or ‘pubs aren’t for me so who cares?’ Millions of people do use each and they are both pretty vital for our economy and society

And how do they see it? 👑 Tiphaine Le Corre, @profjanegreen.bsky.social & Alexander Yeandle review evidence to examine how elite discourse impacts #PublicOpinion about #Immigration

To what extent do political elites influence public opinion about immigration? | European Journal of Political Research | Cambridge Core

To what extent do political elites influence public opinion about immigration?

buff.ly

I’m excited to share this. David and I get into the substance of leader effects, whether elections were ‘won by leaders’, why we give them too much weight, but how they can matter, and when. I’m indebted to Tiphaine Le Corre @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social who helped me think about this over years.

Past Present Future Podcast@ppfideas.bsky.social · 2w ago

NEW EPISODE OUT NOW! Today a pervasive political myth: the notion that what really matters at election time is political leadership. David talks to political scientist @profjanegreen.bsky.social about why leaders are less important than they – and we – tend to think. Find us at...🎧 ppfideas.com

It has been my view for some time that Tories had to pivot to the economy. Of course none of this is easy, but their losses have continued on current course. Will be important, now, to see if they respond to Burnham’s agenda setting by doing so. He understands he can set the terms of debate.

🗣️"We see this in our research with JRF over and over, people are very worried about their finances. It is their primary concern and what's been driving them away from mainstream parties." @profjanegreen.bsky.social on @itvnews.bsky.social earlier today (from 2hrs3mins) www.itv.com/watch/itv-ne...

So a key question now is whether the new @andyburnham.bsky.social led administration will take the higher education funding crisis seriously as a threat to his aspirations around regional growth and skills…

🚨New research for the Bevan Foundation on economic (in)security in Wales 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿 Full report, based on framework of @profjanegreen.bsky.social et al with @jrf-uk.bsky.social, here in English: tinyurl.com/2prrsdpj & Cymraeg: tinyurl.com/mwavt63a Thread below on a couple of things that stood out:

Our electoral system, and geography, has meant that previous by-elections have coalesced behind a left and right party. Or in Gorton and Denton the tactical choice was unclear overall (divided geographically) but the left bloc was big enough overall for Greens to win on a divided left bloc vote…

Our electoral system, and geography, has meant that previous by-elections have coalesced behind a left and right party. Or in Gorton and Denton the tactical choice was unclear overall (divided geographically) but the left bloc was big enough overall for Greens to win on a divided left bloc vote…

No.10 North is a good example of a symbol: it works literally and figuratively at once. As I wrote last week: "Perhaps Burnham the English Lit graduate grasps that politics needs to be conducted in metaphors and symbols as well as metrics & stats." www.newstatesman.com/comment/2026...

Jane Green@profjanegreen.bsky.social · last mo.

Number 10 North is strategic, policy-wise, but I think it will probably be more important for its ‘symbolic politics’. Making voters in the north feel more represented because of a tangible, high profile political symbol. These symbols emphasised by @ffaucher.bsky.social.

Number 10 North is strategic, policy-wise, but I think it will probably be more important for its ‘symbolic politics’. Making voters in the north feel more represented because of a tangible, high profile political symbol. These symbols emphasised by @ffaucher.bsky.social.

I’m sure Bluesky can, but I’d say you can’t argue with this.

Jeremy Cliffe@jeremycliffe.bsky.social · last mo.

5) Base future English growth on two conurbations: the Lon-Ox-Cam triangle in south and the Liverpool-Manchester-Leeds/Sheffield "Y" in north. A big reason for Europe's GDP/capita lag behind US is that its city regions are too small and fragmented. UK could create two world-class ones.

One reason lines from AB that Westminster is 'broken' and 'not working for working people' are effective, is that its a sentiment shared by right and left. You will hear the same from Farage and Polanski, plus attacking politics was once a rallying cry of Nick Clegg pre-coalition for the Lib Dems!

Inside detailed account of the campaign to bring Burnham to No.10 here:

Jessica Elgot@jessicaelgot.bsky.social · last mo.

The project that began in the south London club ran through Manchester, Makerfield and now in a borrowed office of a Labour whip in Portcullis House. The secret history, by me and the great @joshhalliday.bsky.social www.theguardian.com/politics/202...

Tim is right, of course. Which means Burnham will be asked over and over and cant provide a straight answer. He has to say he’s getting on with the job of fixing the country, and everyone will roll their eyes, still wondering if there will be an early election if the polls change dramatically…

Tim Bale@timbale.bsky.social · last mo.

Not sure I agree; but it's maybe worth making two points. 1: What you can't do as a takeover PM is rule out an early election and then call one (Theresa May's mistake). 2: What you can't do as a takeover PM is allow people to believe that you might and then not do it (Gordon Brown's mistake).

@britishelectionstudy.com Director Prof Ed Fieldhouse here explaining the Brexit realignment with insights from our new forthcoming book … please check it out! blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandp...

Brexit is still shaping British politics | LSE British Politics

Brexit is no longer front of mind for voters, but the values and identities that they organised around in the run up to the referendum still shape how they vote.

blogs.lse.ac.uk

Two things on my mind today re: GB politics: 1. Burnham needs to remember that politics is still the art of persuasion. Shift the narrative, lead public understanding of the problems we face. 2. Leaders (their personalities) don’t win elections for parties: the substance of their leadership does.

Bloc voting where Reform isn’t the most viable right party and SNP and Labour have suffered nationally. It’s not a read across. Problem for the Conservatives is that neither England nor Wales are Scotland, where Reform’s support is weaker.

Rob Ford@robfordmancs.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Aberdeen South has been overshadowed by Makerfield drama but it is a remarkable result for Cons: First Con by-election gain in Scotland since 1967. I think it may be first Con by-election gain from SNP ever too. Huge vote share, huge vote gain, huge majority. Despite terrible national polling.

We argue that Burnham's victory shows what can happen when appeals aren't primarily about ideology, but 'valence'; bridging issues where left and right bloc voters both feel disillusioned (the economy). Burnham takes this 'valence' into Westminster but he'll have an uphill challenge to maintain it.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New post "After Makerfield" A bumper post on what happens next, how bad this is for Reform and other big questions. And @profjanegreen.bsky.social / @martamiori.bsky.social on whether the result offers a broader electoral strategy for Labour. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/after-make...

New post "After Makerfield" A bumper post on what happens next, how bad this is for Reform and other big questions. And @profjanegreen.bsky.social / @martamiori.bsky.social on whether the result offers a broader electoral strategy for Labour. (£/free trial) samf.substack.com/p/after-make...

After Makerfield

What happens next and is the result replicable?

samf.substack.com

Last week I read someone say Starmer isn't even making use of throwing caution to the wind in his 'last chance saloon' and doing something bold... (not saying either is right or wrong, just got to love social media)

Mark Wallace@wallaceme.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Prime Ministers grasping at a legacy are not historically good sources of new legislation.

Could you all please stop telling stories about how reckless you were aged 15-16. Especially as I reckon my bsky feed is full of people who were more sensible than average. Yours, mum of a 13 year old.