Jason Davidson
@profjwdavidson.bsky.social
Non-Resident Senior Fellow at Atlantic Council/ Prof at U of Mary Washington Research on NATO/ Transatlantic Security Trying not to suck at bike racing
Italy announcing it will take advantage of EU flexibility to increase defense spending by .9% of GDP. This is a major shift motivated by concerns with keeping the US happy. It will most certainly factor into the 2027 elections where it is likely that Giorgia Meloni will pay a price.
It’s not quite right to say the Trump regime used up virtually all of America’s best missiles in the war on Iran this year, only to gain nothing (in fact, to lose valuable things). Because the Trump regime used up someone of America’s best missiles in a war in Yemen last year, only to gain nothing.
CNBC@cnbc.com · yesterdayU.S. has used 'virtually all' of its long-range precision missiles during Iran war: Reuters
Bernie's list of costs would be enough to show that with nothing gained, Trump's war on Iran was a terrible mistake. Add Linda Bilmes's list and the gravity of that mistake is even clearer.
The Insider asked me to write about who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz. "As things currently stand, Iran sets the terms of risk while the United States retains the capacity to set the terms of consequence. Importantly, these are not the same thing." theins.press/en/opinion/s...
Open but off-limits: Who actually controls the Strait of Hormuz?
At this moment, no one can say with certainty who controls the Strait of Hormuz. Everyone understands that the United States holds all of the strongest cards,…
theins.press
Rubio: "The war in Ukraine has impeded the ability of Russia and the United States to find areas of agreement on other topics." Such a Freudian slip. The war in Ukraine won't let them return to business as usual with Russia 🤦♀️
Sorry AI labs, my library is not for sale.
Emanuel Maiberg@emanuelmaiberg.bsky.social · 2w agocompanies are sourcing millions of printed books for AI labs that scan them for training data, then destroy them. printed books are more valuable because they're free of AI slop, and AI labs know destroying them is an "optics problem." www.404media.co/ai-companies...
Iran War increasingly unpopular even with the MAGA base, which historically thinks whatever Trump tells them to think.
VOLKER: Putin is losing in Ukraine, so the last thing he can afford to do is take on NATO. That's not going to happen. On the other hand, very limited incursion or land grab by Russia, something you could do in less than a day, just take something, stop, and see how NATO reacts.
Americans who learn geography from wars the US fights may have a new strait to learn about very soon: Bab el-Mandeb
Among the challenges in the move toward European defense independence are 1. countries where there is no real public perception of a conventional military threat 🇮🇹 🇪🇸 2. countries where there is a perception of threat, but there is _still_ a refusal to make the hard budgetary tradeoffs 🇩🇪 to ⬆️spending
An alternative to the US is not a distraction for NATO allies, it is a necessity resulting from the Trump administration's policies. The challenge, of course, is that it will take time for Europe to develop the capabilities/structures to be able to defend themselves. x.com/USWPColby/st...
Under Secretary of War Elbridge Colby (@USWPColby) on X
It also isn’t borne out by reality, in our experience. We see an *upsurge* in desire for engagement with the United States, not a reduction. Under President Trump’s leadership, countries not only see ...
x.com
I'd pay to watch a live feed tracking Meloni and Trump at the NATO summit. I suspect she is going to put the side into side-eye this week.
I rarely agree with the WSJ editorial board, but this is 100% correct.
This would be encouraging news if the Trump admin hadn't previously undermined faith in the US commitment to NATO by its threats to seize Greenland, it's claims of "civilizational erasure" and its destabilizing war of choice against Iran. www.wsj.com/politics/nat...
Exclusive | Hegseth Prepared a Bombshell Plan to Cut Troops in Europe. Then It Got Nixed.
The defense secretary wanted to adjust U.S. troop levels in Europe but pulled back after his plan was floated to the White House.
wsj.com
What has the USA done for you? My addition to this list: numerous destabilizing wars of choice in the Middle East giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
What has America ever done for us?
Jazz? The moon landings? Gerrymandering? On this 250th anniversary, it seems only right to think about this question
giftarticle.ft.com
@proflind.bsky.social and Daryl Press have excellent recommendations for how to fix the US' broken nuclear umbrella. Suggesting that 🇫🇷 and 🇬🇧 contribute weapons to NATO's nuclear sharing arrangement is particularly compelling, in my view. www.foreignaffairs.com/united-state...
The Broken Nuclear Umbrella
What comes after extended deterrence.
foreignaffairs.com
(1/10) Europe faces its most dangerous security environment in decades. Intelligence assessments suggest Russia may attack an EU Member State in the coming years. As US engagement in Europe becomes less certain, how can Europe strengthen deterrence? 🧵
NATO advances US interests. "The Nato secretary-general acknowledged Trump’s frustrations with allies during the Iran war but sought to downplay them as “isolated cases”, noting that 4,000 to 5,000 US planes took off from bases in Europe during the conflict." giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Donald Trump demands ‘loyalty’ from Nato allies and slams lack of support in Iran war
US president singles out alliance members, including the UK, after meeting secretary-general Mark Rutte
giftarticle.ft.com
My latest: NATO should take advantage of the Ankara summit to deepen engagement with its southern neighborhood. www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/t...
The Ankara summit is an opportunity for NATO to ramp up engagement with its southern neighborhood
The Alliance can use the upcoming summit in Turkey to advance four policies that will help it increase its security along its south.
atlanticcouncil.org
Add to my file “I am here to tell you that Meloni is very good at politics”
$132 billion (starting costs) for the war $60 billion in higher gas prices for US consumers 3,500 Iranians killed A war that has achieved _nothing_ relative to the status quo on the day it began, priceless. www.nytimes.com/2026/06/19/u...
The Costs of the Iran War: Thousands of Lives and Billions of Dollars
nytimes.com
I agree with Hofreiter. At this point, the question of the 🇺🇸 commitment to defend an attacked ally is far more important than a reduction (even a significant one) of air assets.
The madness of EU transshipments to Russia continues unabated 4 years after the invasion. Main culprits are Germany and Italy. If Lithuania and Poland can get this under control, why can't Germany and Italy? Looks like their governments are fine with this. robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/the-madnes...
It is absurd to claim that Europe may "choose" to go it alone. Trump: 1. refused to rule out seizing an ally's territory by force 2. said Europe risks "civilizational erasure" 3. initiated a war of choice w/out consulting allies & expected them to follow giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/...
Why Europe should not choose to go it alone
A secure future depends on a revitalised transatlantic alliance
giftarticle.ft.com
If the UK can't make the necessary hard choices on defense spending--despite consensus on the threat Russia poses and the dire straits of the British military--what hope is there for Europe? www.ft.com/content/e294...
UK defence secretary resigns over spending plan
John Healey says Keir Starmer ‘unable’ and Treasury ‘unwilling’ to provide essential budget
ft.com
Europe needs to be ready to fight tonight to deter Russia, but despite the hike in #defence spending, the #readiness of existing European equipment and forces continues to be poor, says a new @centreeuropeanref.bsky.social policy brief by @armida.bsky.social. Read here: buff.ly/rwfLU1S
Excellent article by @yarotrof.bsky.social on what warfare today tells us about the limits of great powers. Pairs nicely with Brendan Simms's recent book (which I happen to be reading at the moment): _The Return of the Great Powers_. www.wsj.com/world/the-wo...
The World’s Great Powers Are Learning They Have Limits
As technology levels the field between stronger and weaker nations, old-fashioned wars of conquest might no longer be possible.
wsj.com
Turns out if you eliminate a government agency that is made up of people on leave from other government agencies, you don't actually "eliminate bureaucracy."
