@theifs.bsky.social did great analysis here, but the £35bn “black hole” reporting is misleading. This is an “illustrative total” of extra spending in 2030/31, depending on policy choices and how pressures develop - not a fixed bill for the Autumn Budget. Here’s why:

Politics UK@politicsuk.com · yesterday

🚨 NEW: The IFS says John Healey faces a £35bn black hole in his first Budget

Super interesting analysis from @steveakehurst.bsky.social @persuasionuk.bsky.social

Steve Akehurst@steveakehurst.bsky.social · 2w ago

NEW: How does Burnham’s conference speech land with voters when they see it it? In short, very well it seems. A thread on some new video testing of the PM’s speech among voters by @persuasionuk.bsky.social Top line findings and some caveats below! 🧵👇

Come see me at the BIG TAX DEBATE at Labour Conference 5.15 today 🌹

UCL Policy Lab@uclpolicylab.bsky.social · 2w ago

Then straight on to a topical debate where next on tax for the Labour Government, with our partners @stoneeconucl.bsky.social and @jrf-uk.bsky.social, and @jeevunsandher.bsky.social @rachaelhenry.bsky.social and @chrisbelfield.bsky.social. Expect expert reaction to today's social care announcement.

Why proper reform of capital gains tax is a good thing for business

Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org · 3w ago

Someone working everyday to make a living should not pay a higher percentage of their income in tax, then someone making money from selling an asset or an investment. @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on GBNews.

Talking NEETs

Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org · 3w ago

Young people shouldn't have to rely on a 'postcode lottery' to access employment opportunities. Our recent report found that regions with less suitable opportunities for young people also tend to have higher NEET rates. Here's @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on GB news this morning.

With the political drama unfolding after the local elections, one thing is clear: people are done with status quo politics. In a more uncertain world, the UK must move closer to the EU — our biggest trading partner and closest ally in values. 📻 @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on #TimesRadio 👇

@mcgregor.bsky.social’s been @ippr.org trustee years &I can confidently say he’s one of the wisest, smartest, kindest. He talks human not bullshit. Really impressive experience +perspective at intersection of politics/policy/campaigns/digital. And an incredibly open, generous operator. Wicked hire ❤️

Jim Pickard@pickardje.bsky.social · 3mo ago

I've been told that Matthew McGregor, currently chief executive of campaign group 38 Degrees, will go into Downing St as Burnham's director of political strategy www.ft.com/content/cba0...

Up to 8 million jobs in the UK are exposed to AI. But a jobs apocalypse is not inevitable. A new generation of workers' rights can protect workers and ensure everyone benefits from this new technology. @josephevans.bsky.social explains 👇

🪫 | NEW REPORT: The Iran war could could cost the Treasury up to £8bn a year through higher debt interest payments & lost tax revenue. In this report we make the case for capping energy prices to limit inflation. Read more here: www.ippr.org/articles/pri...

Capping prices in a supply shock? Wouldn't this just pretend that we have as much oil and gas available as before Iran? Price caps can work in supply shocks when they're designed well 🧵1/9

Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org · 5mo ago

🪫 | NEW REPORT: The Iran war could could cost the Treasury up to £8bn a year through higher debt interest payments & lost tax revenue. In this report we make the case for capping energy prices to limit inflation. Read more here: www.ippr.org/articles/pri...

Should the government use tomorrow's Budget to abolish the two-child benefit cap? 📺 @rachaelhenry.bsky.social makes the case for taxing gambling companies to pay for it on @gbnewsonline.bsky.social 👇

The tax system is dysfunctional. It taxes workers more than the wealthy and it's riddled with inefficiencies. Tomorrow's Budget is a chance to fix that. 📺 @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on @gbnewsonline.bsky.social 👇

'There's no reason that terraced house in Blackpool should be paying more tax than a mansion in Kensington.' @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on LBC News. Read our solutions to the UK's broken tax system 🔗 www.ippr.org/articles/fairness-first-how-the-budget-can-make-life-better-and-the-economy-stronger

Closing tax loopholes isn't bad for growth - it boosts efficiency and protects demand. The chancellor can raise tens of billions by targeting unfair wealth, landlords, banks and gambling companies, without hurting GDP. @rachaelhenry.bsky.social for @lbc.co.uk 👇

Me on @itvnews.bsky.social last week

Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org · 12mo ago

The gambling industry can afford to pay more. UK online gambling is taxed less than in many countries — reports that fair reform will hurt jobs or drive play offshore are overblown. @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on @itvnews.bsky.social 👇 Read our analysis here: www.ippr.org/articles/ref...

Me on @lbc.co.uk this morning chatting industrial strat 👇

Institute for Public Policy Research@ippr.org · last yr.

After 15 years of chop and change, today's industrial strategy is a real turning point for the UK economy. Business finally has the certainty it needs to invest — especially in the green industries of the future. 📻 #ICYMI: @rachaelhenry.bsky.social on @lbc.co.uk 👇

This is a really good and important report. Some thoughts of my own...

Changing Realities@changingrealities.bsky.social · last yr.

Been lots of debate about what might turn the dial on child poverty. But we hear far less from families in poverty. Our new briefing sets out a blueprint for a successful child poverty strategy, grounded in experiences of hardship changingrealities.org/writings/get... Pls read + share this 🧵