Prof. Stefan Rahmstorf

@rahmstorf.bsky.social

Climate scientist, professor of Physics of the Oceans in Potsdam. Dad. Opinions my own. Born at 317 ppm CO2.

“It’s time to make oil giants pay up to repair the climate breakdown they’re driving. Think how many fire and flood defences we could build, or how many solar panels we could install, if big oil paid their fair share in taxes.” www.theguardian.com/business/ng-...

Revealed: major oil firms make $93bn profits amid war and climate crisis

Iran conflict windfall over three months reignites calls for companies ‘cashing in on human misery’ to pay for environmental damage

theguardian.com

It is much simpler: We know what we emitted since we know how much fossil fuel has been burned. And that’s twice as much as has accumulated in the atmosphere. So nature hasn’t been a source but a sink: oceans and forests took up half. And that’s also observed fact. www.climate.gov/news-feature...

How do we know the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is caused by humans?

Fossil fuels are the only source of carbon dioxide large enough to raise atmospheric carbon dioxide amounts so high so quickly.

climate.gov

Here’s a classic piece of climate misinformation. Why it’s wrong: Those data are dominated by the very high carbon *turnover* of ocean & biosphere. This means that while we increase the *amount* of CO2 in the air for millennia, the *individual C atoms* of fossil origin get replaced quite fast.

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A study I co-authored in 2023 found ExxonMobil’s predictions of global heating over the following decades to have been mostly accurate, as skilful as independent academic and government models, and also very much at odds with its public statements on the matter. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

‘We can’t make it better again’: what Europe’s wildfires tell us about the climate crisis

In this week’s newsletter: As France and Spain battle huge fires in this summer of relentless heat, will it be enough to spur us to take action?

theguardian.com

#GlobalHeating greatly increases #wildfire risk. That‘s been established scientifically for a long time (see IPCC reports) but has now been shown again for the current fires 🔥 in France and Spain in a new World Weather Attribution study. www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-chan...

Climate change increases likelihood of compounding drivers of severe wildfire conditions in France and Spain – World Weather Attribution

worldweatherattribution.org

Fires in France have now burned over 91,000 acres, by far the most of any year since the satellite record started in 2006. Current area burned is about 34x larger than this date in a typical (median) year:

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Yesterday afternoon 14:09 in Lacanau Océan in France. A pale red sun through the smoke tinged everything in Mars style orange. Welcome in the climate emergency! Despite all denial of the fossil fuel lobby, it’s scientific fact: CO2 emissions heat up Earth & make fires worse. 🔥🔥🔥

Urlaub in der Klimakrise. Keine KI, einfach ein Handyfoto, das ich vorhin am Strand von Lacanau (Frankreich) gemacht habe. In welchem Klima wird der kleine Junge aufwachsen? Es liegt in unserer Hand, aber die Zeit läuft uns davon.

Ein kleines Kind mit blauem T-Shirt sitzt an einem Strand mit Weltuntergangsstimmung. Rechts ist das Meer. Im Hintergrund ist eine riesige Aschewolke zu sehen. Das gesamte Bild ist orange-rötlich durch die Asche in der Luft.

Es sind mehr Menschen in der Ferne am Strand zu sehen.

Holiday in the climate emergency. No that’s not AI or edited, just a snapshot I just took with my phone on Lacanau beach in France. What future will this boy grow up in? It is in our hands, but time is running out.

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As long expected. It’s climate science 101. The vapor thirst of the atmosphere increases exponentially with temperature. A law of physics known since the early 19th C (Clausius–Clapeyron law). It causes more drought even if rainfall doesn’t decline. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Climate crisis-driven heat ‘sucking soils dry’ as extreme drought hits Europe

Analysis shows how heatwaves are making atmosphere thirstier, damaging water supplies, food production and power generation

theguardian.com

Reporting by @jonhenley.bsky.social “The French national health agency said on Wednesday that it had recorded 5,764 excess deaths ⁠between ​17 June and 2 July, an excess mortality rate of 36%.” That is an average of ~384 deaths per day! Global heating has reached ~1.5°C above preindustrial

France recorded more than 5,700 excess deaths during June heatwave

Figures come as large parts of southern Europe endure another record-breaking period of extreme temperatures

theguardian.com