Richard Dunley

@redunley.bsky.social

Naval & diplomatic historian with a side gig in maritime strategy | Senior Lecturer at UNSWCanberra | #PomInOz

Public attitudes towards the ADF - Strong public trust in the institution - Limited support for additonal funding - Mixed public opinion on conscription - Increased opposition to working with allies The latest piece from myself and @townsend-nic.bsky.social theconversation.com/australians-...

Australians are more concerned about terrorism and cyberattacks than war: new research

A new survey reveals Australians’ growing sense of insecurity in the wake of the Bondi terror attack and global threats.

theconversation.com

The ongoing focus in Canberra on collective deterrence and a middle power strategy is going down well in DC! For all the amusement it does again highlight the increasingly irreconcilable inconsistency in 🇦🇺 grand strategy

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“If it doesn't get done in 60 days, it's all right," Trump said. "We go back to bombing." Having bombed themselves into a far worse position this time around, I’m not sure why 🇮🇷 would consider this to be a credible threat. www.bbc.com/news/article...

Initial US-Iran agreement leaves many key issues to be negotiated

Trump has insisted the deal ensures that Iran will never buy, develop or produce a nuclear weapon. But text of the agreement falls short of that.

bbc.com

The whole Block IV vs Block VII discussion is highlighting the utter inability to have any reasonably informed debate about AUKUS. Despite the categorical claims made by advocates & detractors the reality is that we don’t know if this a positive or negative 1/

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“I’d rather get a root canal” than have to import things into Australia” Interesting comments about logistics and sustainment in a major conflict in the IP. But I do wonder about some of the assumptions. www.defenseone.com/threats/2026...

The military says it’s ready to ‘fight tonight’ in the Pacific. Can it sustain that fight?

“We cannot win if our supply lines are 5,000 miles long,” says U.S. Forces Korea commander.

defenseone.com

Why oh why did I agree to write a report on ISR?! Now I am spending hours trying to get "survelliance" and "recognaissance" close enough for spell checker to realise what I am talking about! 😂

The manuscript of my latest book, The Battle for American Opinion: British Propaganda and Anglo-American Relations, 1914-1917 has just gone off to the publisher. 🎉🥳 Now, time for a glass of wine!🍷

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“Their primary purpose is to intimidate and guard sovereignty” Persistent presence bordering on occupation to assert sovereignty at sea. A perfect illustration of the points I make about the changing notions of sea control in my latest article. www.abc.net.au/news/2026-04...

Why China is recruiting fishermen to 'maintain presence' — not to fish

Off China's southern coast, hundreds of fishing boats sit idle. The crews aren't there to fish, but rather to "maintain presence" as part of a shadowy, state-funded fleet.

abc.net.au

A good and balanced piece on AUKUS, which is a rarity in 🇦🇺 right now. The only point I would add is that there is a question over whether 🇦🇺 should roll the dice given the stakes. AUKUS has always been high risk, high reward - but now much more so. www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...

Forget Trump. On AUKUS, it’s the next president we must worry about

Anyone reading the news and trying to assess the state of the AUKUS pact would be understandably confused.

smh.com.au

It will be interesting to see how much longer the Aus govt can walk its tightrope over the Iran war as the economic implications really begin to bite and they need someone else to blame. Tying everything back to the war makes sense in terms of domestic politics, but could cause tensions with US.

Got a number of thoughts about the NDS26 and Marles' speech today, but I was quite taken by this comment. On one level it is a statement of the obvious - but to me it seems inconceivable that a politician would have said this 10 years ago. This alone is progress.

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Why, when we are talking about the absolute fundamentals of Australian security, can we not use plain English? Language that says what we actually mean, and can be understood by the public.

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It is not only the delay in the strategic fleet that is the issue here. The entire concept has been misunderstood. The Taskforce report successful managed to conflate the need for some vessels to requisition in the event of a crisis, with resilience of overseas trade. www.afr.com/politics/fed...

Strategic fleet delays leave nation more vulnerable to fuel shocks

Less than 1 per cent of the nation’s seaborne trade is carried by Australian ships, forcing it to rely on foreign governments and companies for vital imports.

afr.com

A couple of thoughts on the 🇺🇸 apparent declaration of blockade. 1) Subject to a couple of caveats it is legal. The first slightly embarrassing one is that legal blockade is an act of war - and 🇺🇸 has refused to call the “operation” a “war”. 1/

Richard Dunley@redunley.bsky.social · 4mo ago

So it’s only for vessels from Iranian ports. On one level that makes more sense - but when you think about it harder it highlights the bigger issues. This measure makes a lot of sense and was presumably not done previously because there was technically no “war”.

Congrats to all. Noteworthy that this is the first time ever that two admirals have been successive CDFs. Arguably an indication of the growing realisation of the maritime slant to 🇦🇺 defence and security.

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A couple of thoughts on the 🇺🇸 apparent declaration of blockade. 1) Subject to a couple of caveats it is legal. The first slightly embarrassing one is that legal blockade is an act of war - and 🇺🇸 has refused to call the “operation” a “war”. 1/

Richard Dunley@redunley.bsky.social · 4mo ago

So it’s only for vessels from Iranian ports. On one level that makes more sense - but when you think about it harder it highlights the bigger issues. This measure makes a lot of sense and was presumably not done previously because there was technically no “war”.

So it’s only for vessels from Iranian ports. On one level that makes more sense - but when you think about it harder it highlights the bigger issues. This measure makes a lot of sense and was presumably not done previously because there was technically no “war”.

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