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Obadiah Mbatang

@residentadviser.bsky.social

371 Posts569 Follower259 Folgt
Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · last mo.

She will most likely lead the Tory Party to a disaster (worse than Sunak) if the election is in a few months. For some of the reasons Stephen says. The whole field is poor. Farage is the leader of the British right at the moment. If the next election is 2028/9, I think a Tory minority govt is likely

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · last mo.

I'm not 'excited about his prospects' - like Badenoch you have one gauge, red vs blue. Look at the whole field and the reality is that she is leading the Conservatives into disaster.

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · last mo.

This is not as true as Bluesky would have you believe. Among the Centre Bloc - voters who are prepared to swing between both Labour and the Tories - Kemi Badenoch has favourable ratings. That group is mostly Labour and Lib Dem leaning *at the moment* (tho some switching to the Tories already).

Jeremy Bentham's Ghost@utilitymonster2.bsky.social · last mo.

Agree that Kemi often unnecessarily riles up centrist or liberal-minded people, but her response to the Nowak murder was far better than Farage's. In all honesty, my glee at Reform's loss would be stronger than my disappointment at Labour's loss if Badenoch somehow became the next PM.

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · last mo.

There’s the small matter of Burnham calling for one when the Tories switched leader. Repeatedly. And what the polls say. Will be very hard to resist.

Miranda Green@greenmirandahere.bsky.social · last mo.

I'll see you and raise you @timbale.bsky.social - I don't agree at all - just knock it on the head and don't even engage with the possibility - the country wants some governing to actually happen, not to have it all thrown back at us again

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Somewhere vs Anywheres was overdone. He even makes the point in the book. It’s not as clear cut as Anywhere vs Sonewhere in a straightforward sense. There’s an Inbetweener Group, But you see similar points in Lasch, Guilloy, Pikketty, WVS, Rodrik, Shor. And correlates with segmentation and polling.

Sam Freedman@samfr.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Always been the major flaw in this theory. "Anywheres" might be more "cosmpolitan" but they still have a community orienation. I live in a very "anywhere-y" place but there's plenty of school fetes and local book groups.

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Point on Blue Labour aside, it doesn’t matter. Not my point. Am agreeing that the soft left IS the mainstream tendency. And this decision reveals this isn’t a BL govt. I’m just also pointing out that the BL view on welfare is just close to where people are. Which is true.

Declan Gaffney@greyskiesthinking.bsky.social · 8mo ago

I don't hate it but the soft left/Blue Labour framing is crude and unrealistic: they just are not comparable entities. One is a broad tendency in the party and PLP, the other a fringe groupuscule of gesticulating trolls.

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Soft right is interesting and where I’ve long put Streeting. Also think it’s interesting that Mahmood is distancing herself from BL (according to “allies”). But space in the New/Blue synthesis which Purnell, Cooke and Phillip Collins were talking about back in the day. Meant to be Kendall‘s campaign

Sunder Katwala (sundersays)@sundersays.bsky.social · 8mo ago

There may be emerging around Streeting the concept of the 'soft right' - ie a more bridging, broadly liberal & communitarian, pro-market & pro-public services labour right that sees itself as a strand of social democracy in a way that the right of blue Labour does not identify itself as such

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Nah. There’s strong evidence it actually correlates with net migration numbers more than news reports. But control - and perception of control - brings down the salience. Why for example Brexit led to a huge liberalisation on immigration attitudes (and a big reduction in salience).

Paul Evans@pauliewaulie.bsky.social · 9mo ago

There’s plenty of evidence that the salience of immigration as an issue tracks deliberate (expensive) work done to raise it’s salience at strategically significant moments, more closely than it tracks actual immigration numbers.

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I like Mahmood but empirically the argument doesn’t work. Racism has been in decline while salience of immigration has increased over past 30 years. In 1994, concern about immigration was roughly 5%. I suspect far more people would’ve been concerned about a Muslim Home Secretary back then.

Stephen Bush@stephenkb.bsky.social · 9mo ago

It’s just nuts. Even if you accept Labour’s policy diagnosis, we “lost control” of our borders, and concern about immigration was rising long before the alarming rise of racism. The big change on racism has been we traded an anti-racist government for one that is at best Trappist on it.

Obadiah Mbatang @residentadviser.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I think the policies do matter. The Poll Tax was policy. Iraq War was policy. Mini-budget was policy. Corbyn did well in part because of policy. And policy tells you about the outlook, vibes, values etc. But there’s prioritisation and the extent not just policy in isolation.

Dylan Difford@dylandifford.bsky.social · 9mo ago

I'm sorry to break every wonk's heart, but parties do not win elections on the basis of their policy platforms. It's a little more complex, but basically boils down to voters trusting them to pursue the *objectives* that matter to them. It's the outputs - and trust - that count, not the inputs.