As expected new exemption on Russian crude, but its much narrower. It allows more time to buy fuel loaded as of April 17. At least for now does not allow trade of fuel loaded in last month. More an argument of draining existing supplies, but given volumes, this means diminishing marginal returns

Good news UAE (Abu Dhabi) investing in additional egress capacity for oil to bypass Strait of Hormuz to come into effect sometime in 2027. Part of theme of more investing in new infra and logistics. Pathway optionality for crude (less so products), security still a factor given proximity to Iran

And they’re off… a week after GL allowing Venezuela to hire advisers, they set out principles for debt restructuring, and plans to release their macro assumptions and DSA in June. Battle for DSA assumptions begins. Notice who isnt mentioned (IMF) www.businesswire.com/news/home/20...

Good to see @NYFedResearch looking into something that has been worrying me since Feb 28- the downstream effects of Hormuz related disruptions including on AI supply chains (which are the biggest imports and investment drivers US right now. libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/will...

Will Mounting Supply Chain Strains Hamstring the AI Investment Boom? - Liberty Street Economics

The conflict in the Middle East has precipitated a global supply shock—the third in six years following the pandemic in 2020 and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The current shock raises the spec...

libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org

I’m starting the week with the crew at @Bloomberg surveillance to talk about the state of global markets, the impact of energy supply shocks and what might be on the table for the US-China meeting, A little preview below open.substack.com/pub/weaponiz...

Expanding guest list for China trip, feels like last minute attempt to make next week’s US-China trip have buzz and deliverables… still chips, planes and ag as key focus. Tho will be watching for moves on energy side (china has maintained its energy tariffs) www.semafor.com/newsletter/0...

🟡 Semafor Flagship: Nothing quite like it | Semafor

Donald Trump plans to bring CEOs to Beijing, Marco Rubio meets the pope, and China builds its nuclear arsenal.

semafor.com

OFAC issues new GL that allows advisers to begin talking to Venezuela govt re debt restructuring, the first of a long process towards a complex restructuring. Govt revenues still being sheilded from creditors ofac.treasury.gov/media/935566...

Important piece on limits of Russia’s import substitution

BOFIT@bofit.suomenpankki.fi · 3mo ago

BOFIT Policy Brief 4/2026 by Heli Simola: Revisiting Russian war-time import substitution Read more 🔗 urn.fi/URN:NBN:fi-f... #Russia #war #imports @suomenpankki.fi

Also looked at US-GCC trade, tho its a little too early to draw meaningful conclusions. US goods exports to GCC down unsurprisingly- no way to deliver much… but imports from the GCC more resilient including aluminum mostly from Bahrain and UAE. Not sustainable given shut-ins ofc

Lots to unpack in today’s US March trade data, but one, unsurprising data point, is a sharp increase in the cost of fertilizer imports. Big bump in value of US imports, especially from Russia (243m in the month including 147m urea), almost all US imports from Russia

Latest episode of #ShiftingGround — @reziemba.bsky.social joins Larry Rubin and me to discuss sanctions and the weaponized economy. orbisjournal.org/podcast/epis...

Episode 4 | The Weaponized Economy

This episode explores how sovereign balance sheets and coercive tools like sanctions have become primary instruments of modern statecraft, fundamentally shifting the landscape of global commerce.

orbisjournal.org

New sanctions on iran from usg: Today’s measure targets iranian digital asset exchanges. USG has been stepping up warnings of sanctions and other risks of paying tolls, first an FAQ now a formal warning note. Toll payments have always been sanctionable. ofac.treasury.gov/media/935556...

UST clarifies that paying a toll to Iran is sanctionable (illegal). Something I wrote about a few weeks ago, in the brief window when buying loaded cargos of Iranian crude was legal ofac.treasury.gov/faqs/1249 open.substack.com/pub/weaponiz...

Some thoughts on my spring meetings discussions and the continued disconnect between physical supplies and traded markets for energy and beyond. The former will weigh on supply chains for a considerable period. open.substack.com/pub/weaponiz...

Spring Meetings: Mapping the Disconnects

All about the War, or was it AI, so many questions about navigating to the new normal

open.substack.com

Good thread on Bessent’s formal statement at Spring meetings

Charles Kenny@charlesjkenny.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Some quick thoughts on Secretary Bessent’s WB/IMF Spring Meetings statement as regards the World Bank bits… TLDR: one really good bit, some silly bits, and a lot in the middle.

Bessent statement at IMFC points to more funding for fossil fuels and nuclear as in past US requests, and removing climate finance mandate. Here’s hoping the “all of the above” also includes renewables. Also advocates for more WB and MDB work in critical minerals. home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Secretary Bessent IMFC-DC Statement

This year’s Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank provide an important opportunity to engage on current global economic challenges as well as our work with partners a...

home.treasury.gov

New IMF growth scenario downgrades growth for global economy- on assumption of temporary shock from war. Includes upgrades for non-Gulf oil producers including Russia, Nigeria, Canada and US. Also some upgrades for Europe (based on stronger carryover??) www.imf.org/en/publicati...

World Economic Outlook, April 2026: Global Economy in the Shadow of War

The latest World Economic Outlook reports slowing global growth and renewed inflationary pressures. Policies need to be agile, carefully manage the trade-offs involved in ramping up defense spending, ...

imf.org

And we finally have an appointee for International at Treasury, the role that coordinates with IMF, MDBs etc among others, a key open role. Choice of Erin Browne from Pimco w other asset mgt experience highlights market and financial market approach? content.govdelivery.com/accounts/UST...

USG announcing blockade of Iranian fuel is adding back in a policy tried before the current war - attempted military enforcement of sanctions, a theme of (early) 2026 that I discussed with @Rory_Johnston on his podcast in Feb. much more at stake now clearcommodity.net/podcasts/oil...

From Economic to Kinetic Statecraft: Enforcing US Oil Sanctions

In this episode of the Oil Ground Up Podcast, guest Rachel Ziemba joins host Rory Johnston to provide an update on the rapidly shifting landscape of U.S. economic statecraft and its impact on Venezuel...

clearcommodity.net

No extension of US license on sales of loaded Russian barrels yet… which expires today. Had figured diminishing returns from an extension as many barrels drawn down, and fact that most still volumes still to China. Still markets and some Asian buyers were expecting extension

Interesting piece from Marc Busch who takes sentiment scores from National trade estimates. They find (likely unsurprisingly) a broad shift to negative sentiment. Tho those signing recent “deals” experience less negativity. Past deals don’t help thehill.com/opinion/inte...

The US sees trade allies more like adversaries

The traditional “free trade agreement premium” has effectively disappeared.

thehill.com

US and Iran have different definitions of protocol for strait, reconstruction and sanctions relief, and then there’s israel too. Pullling back from more agression and escalation that risks more permanent damage good and maybe best we could get but far from stable situation

Trump appears to have blinked on his timeline and suggests suspending bombing of Iran, with only public ask an full and complete opening of the strait. No word from Iran- would find it hard to believe they allow full opening given leverage, maybe opp to confirm payments?

Sahil Kapur@sahilkapur.bsky.social · 4mo ago

🚨 TRUMP: “I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks.”

Leaked pakistani proposal of two week ceasefire proposes Iran open strait. Who benefits and how much from ST opening? could allow stranded vessels out, and some vessels in, but shapes those that would benefit. Would shut in producers restart, probably not given risk recurrence

March was the month that India resumed buying Venezuelan oil (as it has done whenever US allowed). According to early @TankerTrackers data, China also returned to some small purchases in April/ first time since US policies dismantled the discounted oil to teapots channel

Trump speech didnt tell us much new, included recent talking points and greatest hits on US economy. But…it told us he’s not interested in offramps (yet), isnt prioritizing the strait and has a different definition of no harm coming to regional partners substack.com/@reziemba/no...

Rachel Ziemba (@reziemba)

About to pop onto CNBC to chat about Trump’s speech and the war. There was little new in the speech, which recycled Trump’s recent statements on the war and greatest hits on the resilience of the US...

substack.com

I’ll be joining @cnbc’s Emily Tan a little after 10am SGT to talk about trump’s speech, the war and macro/market risks and what it means for Asia and the globe. As befits the China Connection, we will likely talk Chinese perspective and response including on diplomacy

Support packages from GCC governments are starting to come in. Following CB liquidity support from several countries, Dubai rolls out a package which is mostly revenue/tax deferrals for affected sectors. not new demand Could offset a little but holding fire www.thenationalnews.com/news/uae/202...

Sheikh Hamdan announces Dh1 billion support package for Dubai’s business sector | The National

Initiative set to be introduced from April 1

thenationalnews.com

The @EBRD is first IFI to come out with a meaningful econ update trying to map impact of the war and risk scenarios. This is a hard time to forecast ofc but key time to map exposures and scenarios. www.ebrd.com/home/news-an...

Scott Bessent at odd long Trump presser: Starting to see more movement out of the gulf region, and we expect to see more. Is he taking credit for new Iran managed maritime pathways? Or at least their semblance?