Rodrigo Muñoz

@rodrigo-munoz.bsky.social

Climate Science PhD student at UNAM, México Socioeconomic impacts of climate change, renewable energy “And always, he fought the temptation to choose a clear, safe course, warning 'That path leads ever down into stagnation.'”

Scaling patterns give us a glimpse of the regional impacts of geoengineering. Precipitation is particularly problematic, with both strong wetting and drying (and model disagreement) in the tropics. This is the percentage change in precipitation for every degree in global temperature reduced by SAI.

A global map representing the porcentage change in precipitation for every degree in global temperature reduced by stratospheric aerosol injection.
Rodrigo Muñoz@rodrigo-munoz.bsky.social · last yr.

Pattern scaling, the focus of our paper, allows us to generate maps of temperature or precipitation anomalies for geoengineering scenarios using only global temperature increase due to GHGs and tenperature reduction due to aerosol injection. Custom scenarios can be modelled using climate emulators.

Pattern scaling, the focus of our paper, allows us to generate maps of temperature or precipitation anomalies for geoengineering scenarios using only global temperature increase due to GHGs and tenperature reduction due to aerosol injection. Custom scenarios can be modelled using climate emulators.

Scaling factors for GeoMIP-pattern. (a) Global mean near-surface temperature for the 6 GCMs that participated in the G6sulfur experiment, (b) Difference between G6sulfur and SSP5-8.5 global mean near-surface temperature.
Rodrigo Muñoz@rodrigo-munoz.bsky.social · last yr.

This paragraph summarizes our motivations for researching SRM modelling, especially this phrase: "while simulations show geoengineering is successful in dampening global average temperature increase, regional and local impacts … on the Earth system and the global economy might offset the benefits"

This paragraph summarizes our motivations for researching SRM modelling, especially this phrase: "while simulations show geoengineering is successful in dampening global average temperature increase, regional and local impacts … on the Earth system and the global economy might offset the benefits"

SAI, SRM, and geoengineering in general are surrounded by ethical concerns, particularly by the unilateral capability of state and non-state actors to start and stop a geoengineering program. The termination shock, that is, a sudden conclusion of geoengineering and a fast onset of the avoided climate change, is expected to have disastrous consequences and is considered of particular concern. Additionally, while simulations show geoengineering is successful in dampening global average temperature increase, regional and local impacts on climate are far less understood and their associated second-order effects on the Earth system and the global economy might offset the benefits derived from global climate change mitigation. It is therefore imperative to conduct impact analyses on natural, economic and social systems on a regional scale to further understand the consequences of geoengineering.
Rodrigo Muñoz@rodrigo-munoz.bsky.social · last yr.

I'm pleased to announce our newest paper published at Scientific Data, where we establish a framework for generating fast, custom SRM scenarios. This will allow us to develop probabilístic regional and global impact studies of geoengineering interventions. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

I'm pleased to announce our newest paper published at Scientific Data, where we establish a framework for generating fast, custom SRM scenarios. This will allow us to develop probabilístic regional and global impact studies of geoengineering interventions. www.nature.com/articles/s41...

GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios - Scientific Data

Scientific Data - GeoMIP-Pattern – a pattern scaling dataset for efficient generation of custom geoengineering scenarios

nature.com

The centers of the world are the enclaves where Nature still resists – and not the centers where the political and financial decisions that destroy our home-planet are made. The centers of the world are the Amazon, the Oceans … and not Washington, Paris… — Eliane Brum, 2025 World's Top Thinker

So apparently current policies point towards the RPC4.5 trajectory (even though I feel the SSP3 fragmented narrative seems more plausible than the inertial SSP2 one). That is assuming current policies don't diverge starting tomorrow...

Zeke Hausfather@zekehausfather.com · 2y ago

This reflects a bit of good news; 2.7C is a lot better than the 4C that many thought we were heading for a decade ago, and reflects real progress on moving away from a 21st century dominated by coal. At the same time, its far from what is needed: