Trump seems incapable of maintaining a no war, no deal scenario. Threatening further acts of war while maintaining a blockade means the quasi-ceasefire is likely to fully break down.

If a second round of Islamabad negotiations takes place, it will happen in spite of Trump’s reckless moves - first to allow Israel to attack Lebanon, second to impose a blockade and keep it in place after Iran signaled its own would end. Trump is bluffing with a bad hand and may get called on it.

Hello friends, I wrote for Nation Magazine about how Iran has a reasonable legal basis for regulating the Strait of Hormuz and those that argue otherwise are reinforcing double-standards and imperial international law-making www.thenation.com/article/worl...

Only One Side Has Clearly Broken the Law In the Strait of Hormuz

And it isn’t Iran.

thenation.com

Told @ABC that it is not entirely clear that the Straits are open, just as much as it isn't clear whether Trump's blockade ever was really implemented. But Tehran is demonstrating here through this move that it decides whether the Strait is open or closed. abcnews.com/video/132143...

Video What Strait of Hormuz opening means for lasting peace deal

Trita Parsi, executive VP of the Quincy Institute, discusses diplomatic efforts to end the war in Iran.

abcnews.com

President Trump seems to be pivoting from war toward an agreement with Iran. The application of the ceasefire to Lebanon, easing pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and continued shuttle diplomacy all point toward a breakthrough that will upset many in DC who spent decades setting the stage for war.

A blockade is an act of war, so Trump is announcing he will reenter the U.S. into a war has been illegal under domestic and international law and has been disastrous for U.S. interests, regional security and the people of Iran.

Heckuva war the U.S. government is backing here.

Michael Derby@michaelsderby.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Israeli strike kills infant girl in south Lebanon during father's funeral - Via Reuters

Vance left negotiations with Iran suggesting Iran could take or leave the final U.S. offer. Iran was never going to agree to a final deal the same week they were threatened with civilizational annihilation, and the U.S. has few good options.

No Trump plan survives first contact with Netanyahu

For those keeping score, Netanyahu didn’t just talk Trump into starting the disastrous Iran war. He also talked Trump into allowing him to violate the terms of a ceasefire to end it - risking the U.S. reentering a war that is a disaster for the region, U.S. and global economy.

President Trump went from threatening genocide against Iran to striking a tentative ceasefire in a matter of hours. What comes next? There is a ceasefire, but now two separate visions for peace need to be forged.

Trump said he was “torn” on signing the max pressure memo, and “unhappy to do it,” signaling a preference for diplomacy. Taking that at face value, his gut instinct may have been right - wedding an olive branch with pressure has triggered a harsh reaction from Iran’s leader.

Trump greeting Bibi with return of “maximum pressure” on Iran - even though Biden never ended it. If they’re serious about driving Iranian oil exports to zero, it is a signal hawks are in driver’s seat again, and dangerous escalation will follow.

worst attorney general in American history. he had one job prospect.org/justice/2023...

Merrick Garland Failed America

Jack Smith is doing the attorney general’s job for him, 28 months after it should have been done.

prospect.org

Testing out this new place - here’s my latest www.stimson.org/2023/change-...