Samrat Chowdhery

@sam-rat.bsky.social

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Gaza plan looks great on paper and Hamas does have the incentive to disarm, but not clear Israel can be reined in. After over 70,000 dead, we are back to the central question of whether the US can lean on its ally to behave rationally. That's the real chokepoint. #GazaWar

America had to finally buy the favour of major Gulf nations with dole-outs – currency swap, AI chips for Emiratis and a nuclear deal for Saudis. But concessions have a sell-by date, so the US is still on the clock to wrap up its war before this support wanes. #IranWar

Lindsey Graham’s demise could tilt interventionist foreign policy in US Senate toward isolationism. It's good to talk about the US not abdicating its role as the global policeman, but the way it has been using its power lately, such a shift could be welcome.

Keir Starmer's impending resignation after less than two years proves a massive parliamentary majority can't guarantee everyone believes in your vision. The UK's center-left revival was remarkably hollow.

A US-Iran deal won't change the reality of this war, which is that a small nation of 90 million people rocked the global economy and now forever holds that card, became a new hegemon of ME and ended 47 years of obscurity to gain a seat on the world stage.

US unipolarity is giving way to regional actors dictating conflict resolution – Ukraine is turning to France, Germany and the UK for peace talks, while Iran is directly using hard power against Israel to safeguard Lebanon.

The modern food system functions because regional crop failures are usually isolated, allowing other areas to compensate. Climate change is increasing the likelihood of synchronous, multi-region droughts, removing this safety net.

What happens when the world’s breadbaskets start failing simultaneously?

The modern food system was built on the expectation that geography would spread out the risks from droughts and floods. Climate change is testing all of that at once.

theconversation.com