It’s just hot air. No new oil or gas reserves have been found in years, despite hundreds of millions being spent on the search. The future is renewable wind and solar — and everyone knows it. #YesterdaysMan

In 2023, over 80% of left-leaning New Zealanders wanted more government spending on the environment. Among right-leaning voters, it was 31%. The environment is mostly the left's turf. So is there any room for a right-leaning "blue-green" party? A 🧵 on the NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol #environment

When reality surpasses fiction! Top: fictional forecast for August 2050, broadcast by French TV in 2014 to warn about the consequences of global warming. Bottom: Real French forecast for yesterday, June 22, 2026.

At a time when democracies elsewhere are under strain, New Zealanders are notably content with theirs: 71% were satisfied with how democracy works after the 2023 election, and that's held near 70% for 30 years. I looked at NZES and CSES data. Short 🧵 (1/6) #nzpol

It strikes me, on the balance of probabilities, that 1. Fonterra and Z sent their lobbying to Matt Burgess’ personal email address in order to try to avoid public scrutiny; 2. They were given that address to facilitate avoiding public scrutiny;

A couple of quick reckons on the move to oust non-elected committee members from local authorities. www.beehive.govt.nz/release/coun...

Another signal (if we needed any more) that NZ First are positioning themselves as a radical right party. Unlike most other countries, though, there is no "firewall" that means centrist parties will refuse to go into coalition with them. #nzpol www.stuff.co.nz/nz-news/3609...

Party’s former leader to stand for NZ First in this year’s election

Elliot Ikilei, the former leader of the New Conservative Party, will stand as a candidate in this year’s election for NZ First.

stuff.co.nz

Zohran just cited Minneapolis, Austin, and Auckland as cities that lowered housing costs via upzoning certified ball knowledge, Auckland is a deep YIMBY cut

This was a really basic security hole created by a company contracted to handle some of the most sensitive personal data It's not an isolated incident - assume everything you give to a 3rd party online will be compromised (Which is why online voting is a really bad idea and we should never do it)

Keith Ng@keithng.bsky.social · 2mo ago

I Was Right About Everything (re: ManageMyHealth): * API let ANY authenticated user access everyone else's files * this was dumb and very much subpar www.health.govt.nz/information-...

Of 29 countries surveyed, NZ has the lowest opposition to immigration — one of only four where the average respondent leans toward wanting more, not less. What's behind the opposition that does exist? I dug into NZES and ISSP data — part 2 of a two-part series. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

Quite interesting to see the differences between Stuff and NZH comments on stories about the public service cutbacks. Polar opposites. #nzpol

🧵 NZ First and ACT are both running on immigration in 2026. But only 0.6% of voters named it their most important issue at the last election — and in 2023, NZers were more pro-immigration than in most years. I analysed 30 years of NZES data. (1/6) #nzpol threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/immigra...

Immigration has rarely driven NZ elections. Could 2026 buck the trend?

With immigration back on the political agenda, I use NZ Election Study data to examine how attitudes differ by party — from NZ First's consistent opposition to ACT's divided base. Immigration has rare...

threelongyears.crawley.nz

Maybe putting everything into the cloud and creating one giant single point of failure was not such a good idea after all.

Jess Calarco@jessicacalarco.com · 3mo ago

Kind of surprised that this hasn't been bigger news. It's finals week for a whole lot of universities, and yet, Canvas (a learning/grading platform used by ~9,000 schools globally) is currently inaccessible because of a pay-or-have-your-data-leaked hack. www.insidehighered.com/news/tech-in...

Interesting comparing the current stage of 2023 and 2026 electoral cycles. At this point: In 2023 (Hipkins/Labour) - policy bonfire In 2026 (Luxon/Nat/Act/NZF) - institutional bonfire #nzpol

This week, the Supreme Court finally killed off the Voting Rights Act of 1965. I've spent the past decade studying the VRA and the attacks on it, so I thought I would offer some historical perspective, and where I think we're headed. This will be a long thread; buckle up.

National won a higher share of women voters than men in 2023 — 41% vs 37%. That runs against the usual pattern, where women tend to lean left. I analysed three decades of NZES data on the gender voting gap in NZ. There is a gender gap, but it's small. 🧵 #nzpol

Just published! Writing with the amazing @sarahhbickerton.bsky.social we unpack online misogyny in NZ, what laws look like right now and set out our vision for online safety regulations that support women's human rights. Was wonderful working with Sarah on this piece!

This heavy use of urgency — shortcuts in the parliamentary process — is cheating democracy. And ministers know it too.

Marc Daalder@marcdaalder.bsky.social · 4mo ago

No government since at least 1987 has passed 30 or more laws without a select committee vet – until the coalition last month. newsroom.co.nz/2026/04/16/g...

At the Forum on Democratic Resilience & Transparency last month I explained that #OIA laws were often the product of crises of public confidence in governance. Muldoon’s Think Big led to the OIA, but this govt is working to weaken the OIA when we’re already in another dangerous governance situation.

Sam Crawley@samcrawley.bsky.social · 4mo ago

That score has fallen to NZ's lowest since around the 1980s, with the biggest single-year drop in 2025. Consultation, common-good justification, and respect for counterarguments have all declined since the current government took office. (4/5)

NZ ranks 14th globally for liberal democracy. But 37th for deliberative democracy - how decisions get made and explained. And that ranking has been falling. I dug into the latest data from the Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project. Short 🧵 (1/5) #nzpol

The claim "the fact that the incumbent party was successfully defeated in an election shows that there was never anything to worry about and democracy was fine all along" in the Hungarian case— with explicit or implicit analogy to the US— is maddening to begin with, bc it's a well-known fact 1/

"...if the coercive campaign drags on, U.S. hawks may underestimate Iran’s staying power. From all indications, Tehran has options, and the capacity to cause renewed global economic dislocation." goodauthority.org/news/yes-ira...

Yes, Iran has options, despite the U.S. blockade

Here’s why economic coercion is tough to implement – and could spur further escalation.

goodauthority.org

It's called a parliamentary system.

Mark Sumner 🌒@devilstower.bsky.social · 4mo ago

We need a mechanism to call a snap election. It would be seen as less of a personal attack than either impeachment or the 25th amendment and would give the public the final say.

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future." (I also tend to find anyone making highly confident predictions are more often wrong than right. Bonus points for telling us your claims are "indisputable").

David Roberts@volts.wtf · 4mo ago

"We are now in a world war that isn’t going to end anytime soon. ... These indicators suggest that we are in a transition stage from the pre-fighting stage to the fighting stage, which is roughly analogous to the 1913-14 and the 1938-39 periods." 🫠

A lot of Orbán's American fans are saying that this election proved he was never an authoritarian in the first place. This is completely wrong — and, in fact, betrays a complete misunderstanding of both Hungarian politics and modern authoritarianism. Here's why.

In competitive authoritarianism, leaders abuse state power to tilt the electoral playing field in their favor, manipulate the media environment and minimize opposition voices, maybe even steal close elections by lying about fraud. But they usually can't overcome a large majority voting against them.

Tyranny requires constant effort. It breaks, it leaks. Authority is brittle. Oppression is the mask of fear. Remember that.

The fossil fuel crisis is getting worse because we already burned too much fossil fuel which causes extreme weather, meaning the boats bringing us fossil fuel can't get to us and deliver more fossil fuel for us to burn. Is this really where we are? #nzpol #climatechange

Just recorded a great pod, and I gotta say ... solar and batteries are going to win. They are the main dish. Everything else is a side dish. In 10 years, you won't be able to find anyone who disagrees with this.

ICYMI: Cost of living could be the key battleground issue in 2026. My analysis on the difference between "the economy" and "cost of living" as issues: threelongyears.crawley.nz/blog/nz-elec... #nzpol

Sam Crawley@samcrawley.bsky.social · 4mo ago

How much voters liked each party (rated 0–10) reinforces the divide. Economy voters: National 7/10, Labour 4/10. But among cost of living voters — focused on household bills — Labour (5.5) and National (5.1) were nearly level. No party owned the issue. (3/4)