Sarah Bauerle Danzman

@sarahbauerled.bsky.social

Associate Professor, Hamilton Lugar School at Indiana University/ Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council/Scholarly research, writing, teaching, & policy analysis at the intersection of national security & international political economy/ CFIUS&Tech Controls

Already some excellent submissions in for #PEADS2026 from May 22-23 at Georgetown University McCourt School of Public Policy. Don't have yours in yet? Don't worry there's still time - deadline January 30th! Please "re-sky" to spread the word!

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I know everyone is talking about Venezuela (as they should), but also, the Trump Administration used CFIUS authorities to require another Chinese investor to divest from a semiconductor company: home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Statement on the President’s Decision Ordering the Divestment of Interests in Certain Assets of EMCORE Corporation by HieFo Corporation

WASHINGTON — Today, President Trump published an order ordering the divestment by HieFo Corporation (“HieFo”), a Delaware corporation and foreign person of certain assets of EMCORE Corporation (“EMCORE”), a New Jersey corporation.  The assets that were the subject of the transaction comprised EMCORE’s digital chips and related wafer design, fabrication, and processing business, including a semiconductor manufacturing facility (the “EMCORE Digital Chips Business”).    The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (“CFIUS” or the “Committee”) reviewed and investigated this transaction pursuant to Section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended (“Section 721”). CFIUS identified a national security risk arising from the transaction relating to potential access to EMCORE’s intellectual property, proprietary know-how, and expertise and to the potential diversion of supply of indium phosphide chips manufactured by the EMCORE Digital Chips Business away from the United States.  To address this risk, the President’s order directs HieFo to divest all interests and rights in the EMCORE Digital Chips Business.    HieFo did not file the transaction with CFIUS until after CFIUS’s non-notified team investigated the transaction.  CFIUS’s non-notified function has been enhanced by authorities provided by Congress in FIRRMA and ongoing appropriations to support the Committee’s ability to identify and review non-notified transactions.  Parties to transactions should carefully consider whether or not any transaction they may be undertaking may be subject to CFIUS jurisdiction, including whether or not the transaction has a potential nexus to U.S. national security. The CFIUS process focuses exclusively on identifying and addressing national security risks arising from a covered transaction.  CFIUS's risk analysis involves consideration of the potential threat, vulnerability, and consequence of any given transaction.  CFIUS reviews each transaction on a case-by-case basis and considers the specific facts and circumstances relating to that transaction.  As such, the disposition of each CFIUS case is reflective only of CFIUS’s analysis of that specific transaction and not indicative of a general position on the transaction parties, countries, or industries involved.  CFIUS’s mandate to conduct case-by-case reviews is reflective of the U.S. Government’s commitment to maintaining its open investment policy while protecting U.S. national security. View a copy of the President’s order. ABOUT CFIUS CFIUS is an interagency committee authorized to review certain transactions involving foreign investment in the United States and certain real estate transactions by foreign persons, in order to determine the effect of such transactions on the national security of the United States.  CFIUS is chaired by the Secretary of the Treasury and includes as members the Secretaries of State, Defense, Commerce, Energy, and Homeland Security, the Attorney General, the Director of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, and the U.S. Trade Representative.  The Director of National Intelligence and the Secretary of Labor participate as non-voting, ex-officio members, and the Secretary of the Department of Agriculture is a member when a case involves elements of the agricultural industrial base that have implications for food security.   Treasury’s Office of Investment Security leads CFIUS’s efforts to identify transactions where no voluntary notice has been filed under section 721 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as amended. If CFIUS determines that a non-notified transaction may be a covered transaction or covered real estate transaction and may raise national security considerations, the Committee may contact the transaction parties and request a CFIUS filing.  Members of the public may contact Treasury with any tips, referrals, or voluntary self-disclosures at CFIUS.tips@treasury.gov.  ####

home.treasury.gov

What is striking about this graph is how little consumption contributed to growth in 2025 and how much decline in imports did. Consumption grew in q4, but for the year was lack luster. Additionally, the top 10% account for 50% consumption. This indicates substantial structural weakness

Joey Politano🏳️‍🌈@josephpolitano.bsky.social · 8mo ago

NEW: US Real GDP came in at a 4.3% annualized growth rate in Q3 2025. Consumption & government output increased, investment declined slightly (mostly due to inventory drawdowns), & the trade deficit shrank Nominal GDP growth (unadjusted for inflation) came in at 8.2% annualized

A graph of contributions to US real GDP growth

Always love contributing to Atlantic Council's By the Numbers Series. Thanks to Josh Lipsky and Kimberly Donovan's steady leadership through disorienting times. And to the amazing staff & NRSF at the center. I am fortunate to work with and learn from you all: www.atlanticcouncil.org/dispatches/b...

By the numbers: The global economy in 2025

Our GeoEconomics Center experts break down the numbers and data points that defined the global economy in 2025.

atlanticcouncil.org

I’m not sure this framing is entirely fair, but it is certainly true that CFIUS provides the executive with enormous discretion, which can be used for legitimate public interest or for cronyism. And, again, the least corrupt divestment pathway was an IPO rather than brokered sale.

Drew Harwell@drewharwell.com · 8mo ago

Important to remember that the TikTok deal, which delivered the app into the hands of pro-Trump billionaires, was only made possible by President Biden and the Democrats. www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2...

Is this the final chapter in the TikTok saga? What valuation does the deal put TikTok USA at? What are the data safeguards? How will owners manage the algorithm? I’m a broken record, but divestment should have happened through IPO. www.hollywoodreporter.com/business/dig...

TikTok U.S. Deal to Close Next Month: Oracle and Silver Lake Confirmed in Buyer Consortium

Abu Dhabi's state investment fund will also be a managing investor.

hollywoodreporter.com

This should be the biggest story in the country right now. The sitting US President was extorting state lawmakers from his own party by threatening to withhold public money if they didn’t gerrymander for him. I don’t know how else to say it…

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The news that the Trump administration is allowing #Nvidia chips to China is another indication that the deal makers are winning against the China Hawks. I anticipated this in my recent JIEL article, where a focus on tech competition is giving way to expansionary mercantilism/domination.

Table 1. Investment and technology policy developments under three administrations
Central tools Illustrative actions Strategy/goal
Ordering
implications
Trump
1.0
FIRRMA
ECRA & Emerging & Founda-
tional Technology List
Entity listings
EO 13959 (CMIC)
Foreign Direct Product Rules
Huawei entity
listing and de
minimis rulea
ZTE listing and
dealb
renegotiationc
Weaponization;
Extraterritoriality
State of
exception in
the context
of rules-
based order
Biden EO 14083 (CFIUS guidance)
EO 14105 (Outbound Investment
Regulation)
China Semiconductor Export
Controls
CHIPS & Science
BIS Rules (167)d
Export controls
on advanced
semiconductors
Connected vehicle
regulation
Technological
supremacy,
resilience, and
competitiveness
Embedded,
securitized
liberalism
Trump
2.0
America First Investment Policy
Memorandume
Restrict outbound portfolio flows
Restrict inbound non-passive
investment from China
Encouragement of inbound
passive investment
‘Fast-track’ inbound control
investment from friendly countries
Saudif and
Emiratig invest-
ment pledges
Golden Visash
Domination Expansionary
Mercant