it's kind of uncouth to mention this, but: I have absolutely no clue how teams would index Luis Pena's recent health problems in his trade value, and you also don't unless you literally work for Detroit Tigers baseball operations
Jarrett Seidler
@seidler.bsky.social
senior writer @baseballprospectus.com, longtime crank, social circle online circle friend of the show, here more now
said this on the podcast yesterday, but Robert continuing to be the playing time priority in center over Ewing is just about the dumbest thing the Mets could do ROS, and well,
As someone who just got out from my student loans fairly recently for a degree I ended up not using a whole lot, I kinda wish I had been barred from taking them out, and I don’t know that we should be defending the ability of teenagers to cripple their financial futures into their 40s and 50s
thinking about this again this fine morning
Jarrett Seidler@seidler.bsky.social · 6mo agoline from Rob Cerfolio's interview at FanGraphs is gonna stick with me for awhile bc so much of public player evaluation has turned the other way: "We’re not solving for Double-A performance. We’re solving for major league impact." blogs.fangraphs.com/cardinals-fa...
I think he's fine and it's a good trade. I also think the nature of how prospect lists update wildly overrate the gap between him and, say, Emilien Pitre at the time these trades were made
@etzpretz.bsky.social · 2d agoYou seem skeptical. Don't like the prospect?
I believe he will be the Mets top prospect on most national lists that update immediately post-deadline, he says very carefully
@nyjimfan31.bsky.social · 2d agoDoes he immediately become Mets’ top prospect?
he's made a demonstrable swing change, I think he's a fringe 101 guy. I have no strong opinion on trading Luke Weaver on a fair deal for a fringe 101 guy, like it's exactly the value I'd expect?
Dr. Dad@rusteshackleford.bsky.social · 2d ago@seidler.bsky.social should I buy into the Stafura helium, or is this just a hot month and we're boned?
most prospects fail. Almost all of the prospects the Mets will get today will not end up being good major leaguers, that's just the nature of not having anything particularly great to trade
JerseyLefty@jerseylefty.bsky.social · 2d agoI am fine with the idea where the #Mets go for traits over performance. Doesn’t that approach require that they actually know how to develop players? Evidence really mixed there. Good on Benge/Ewing, woeful on Baty/Vientos/etc
yes; I think Spikerman is trending towards a defensive replacement basically
Dynasty Prospects Anonymous@prospects411.bsky.social · 2d agoWhen you say 3 or soft 4 are you talking 30/80
the non-Weaver relievers the Mets had to offer were all guys whose performances were outrunning shaky traits and they’re opting for portfolio approach returns where they ignore performance for traits, which is combining to make returns *feel* weak that are actually not
Ramon Marquez for a non-elite rental is absolutely brutal but uhhh I guess Kilian has control and might be good
I do not understand paying a huge premium for the 2026 ROS two gain two extra years of control on a player of the quality you can freely acquire in the offseason
Mets got the good controlled reliever price on a 36-year-old okay middle guy who they acquired for nothing, used as a AAA shuttle arm for years, and can’t inherit runners because he randomly popped a shiny ERA for a few months without doing anything specific better. …and people are mad about this?
Yes, it was six months ago. The sun rose again.
Jimmy G@leontrout.bsky.social · 3d agoYou wrote a helluva critique in the annual a few years back on the Rizzo organization during the rebuilding years (complimentary). Do the moves being made clarify a new timeline yet for "this is a competent-to-good developmental org" to the better/sooner?
I’m not sure I’ve ever hated the rest of an album with three absolute year-end list bangers as much as I dislike the rest of Daughter From Hell (for the record: Look At My Life, Minibar, and Hit The Wall; she did a good job picking singles certainly)
want to expand upon the latter part: most teams do extremely uninteresting shit with their playing time when they are bad, most often employing role 4/45 filler veterans with no upside. The 2026 Nats handed their’s to post hype sleeper busted prospects, hit on several, and traded them for real value
Jarrett Seidler@seidler.bsky.social · 3d agoCebert is the latest Yankees college diversification arm whose stuff jumped in their pitching program and Grable and Cruz both profile as excellent high leverage relief types, that’s a great portfolio return for renting out corner playing time for a few months
Cebert is the latest Yankees college diversification arm whose stuff jumped in their pitching program and Grable and Cruz both profile as excellent high leverage relief types, that’s a great portfolio return for renting out corner playing time for a few months
the Nationals making baseball trades that aren’t clear buys or sells kinda rocks
Pitre is probably just straight up a better infield prospect of broadly similar type as Jett at this point. GGH has some incredible traits. Smith is a theoretical high upside guy who can’t hit who will be highest in outdated rankings but is bordering on a lottery ticket here. Strong portfolio imo
Tacorover@tacoroverr.bsky.social · 3d agoi dont know much about the prospects they got. are they good and has Jett Williams fallen off?
That’s a much better return for Peralta than I expected and arguably more valuable currently than Williams and Sproat (though not at the time of the trade)
What has been happening is the people who really want to scream are aggregating the outlet most down on both players and coming up with ballpark comp packages and are kicking and screaming to make their unrelated points. It’s bad!
Chicken Puppet 🏳️⚧️@chickenpuppet.online · 3d agoWhat is the hypothetical package someone could have put together to beat Hope and Ryan, because as far as I can see no one is trading the type of prospect that can blow that out of the water
I don’t think most of you all actually are thinking through the consequences of claiming/insinuating everyone who talks about prospects is on the take from the Dodgers or otherwise compromised, but it would be nice if you did before you told your large audiences factually untrue stuff about us!
brother the Mets hired the guy I would have drafted second or third for this project and I’m fucking rooting for lottery odds in year 3
Jake@metsruinedme.bsky.social · 4d agoAnyone can do his job with an unlimited payroll and the player dev they set up
everything else aside you can say a lot of shit about Friedman as an exec, a lot of good, some not so good, but I don’t think there’s another GM in my life who has ever understood *the assignment* as well as him
The Dodgers are currently on a 100+ win pace for the 7th season of the last 10—the other seasons being 92, 98, and 93 wins—and still have the best farm system in the sport after trading for the best player in the deadline market
bonobos37@bonobos37.bsky.social · 4d agoNo it isn't/you don't know that.
my personal opinion is that I look at objective measures of the popularities of Ohtani, MLB, and baseball generally and go “holy shit I didn’t realize we still had this juice” but I get direct deposits to cover baseball so I’m in the 0.001 percent here and possibly not a relevant opinion
Jacob Rasch@seriousjammage.bsky.social · 4d agoeverything jarrett's said tonight is true, and i just don't think that a sport where having every competitive advantage is only likely to get you 3 titles in 10 is a big problem when it means the most compelling players are guaranteed to play the most important games