Thom Baguley

@seriousstats.bsky.social

Mostly posting about statistics and Psychology.

Now available on the OSF as part of a growing collection of preregistration resources, the new EEG & ERP Methods template guides researchers through every stage of ERP study planning. In our Q&A, two of its creators share how the template can help researchers at all stages:

Introducing the EEG and ERP Methods Template: Q&A with Gisela Govaart and Antonio Schettino

Interview with Gisela Govaart and Antonio Schettino, developers of the new ERP preregistration template on the Open Science Framework (OSF).

cos.io

The data is in: the NIH goalposts have shifted. What were once almost certain fundable scores have become coin flips and what used to be likely grants have become aspirational, leading to fewer awards. Another manifestation of how HHS policies have led to fewer awards and less science.

Graph of award probability of R35 and R01 from NIH factbook as a function of review rank percentile. As is apparent, 2025 is a significant departure, with lower award probabilities at all scores <40 and significant departures from norm, where even being in the top 10% is no longer a nearly certain indicator of success.

Data source: https://report.nih.gov/nihdatabook/report/302

Politics London discussing driverless taxis casually referring to “jaywalking pedestrians”. Jaywalking is not a thing in UK law. Transport for London and Government had better not be asleep at the wheel on this.

if you're an older person who finds words like mogg and maxxing annoying, just starting using them. people over the age of 30 have the superpower to end trends by simply adopting them

“Staff members at the United States’s premier infectious-disease research institute have been instructed to remove the words “biodefense” and “pandemic preparedness” from the institute’s web pages, according to e-mails Nature has obtained.” www.nature.com/articles/d41...

Exclusive: Key US infectious-diseases centre to drop pandemic preparation

Staff members have been instructed to scrub this topic and ‘biodefense’ from the agency’s website.

nature.com

Tomorrow is Valentine's Day, so let's talk about sex. Eel sex! Well...we can't, really. We don't know exactly where, or how, eels get busy. It's a 2000+ year old puzzle. It's not like we haven't tried. But the sex life of eels is a mystery smothered in secret sauce. 1/5 🗃️🧪

Meme. Photograph of the sculpture "Eel Walker" by Mark Newman, showing naked woman walking an large eel on a leash. The eel -- a massive moray-looking thing -- is floating along off the ground, so we can assume that they are walking through a stream, or on the bottom of the ocean, or through space. OR that it's a magical eel, and it just flies. The eel is fierce and terrible, and probably is expensive to feed.

The woman is done in a golden bronze color. Her hair is floating backwards, suggesting that there is a breeze or an ocean current catching it. I've cleverly (or obnoxiously) written the meme text over her breasts. Sorry, folks; she saving those for the eel. She is muscled and powerful, and the way her left foot is places in front of makes her seem more like a dancer than a walker. She looks like the goddess of eels, taking one of her minions out to gnaw into the dreams of unbelievers and scientists.

Meme text reads: "Let's talk eel sex, baby"

Maria is one of hundreds of children, who — like Liam Ramos — have been held at a Texas detention facility where parents say children languish as they’re served contaminated food, receive little education and struggle to obtain basic medical care. Here's our attempt at telling their stories. 2/

Children trapped in Texas immigration facility recount nightmares, inedible food, no school

A photo of Liam Conejo Ramos, a scared 5-year-old, drew attention to a detention center in Dilley, Texas. Advocates say his experience reflects what hundreds of children have endured out of public vie...

nbcnews.com

I was a sensitive kid. I loved cats. I had OCD, undiagnosed. When I was 9, a fraternity brother tortured a cat to death in my hometown. The details even now are beyond imagination. archive.is/xdmUL I was traumatized for years from reading the news story. The torturer? Now the head of the NRA.

The teenager told officers he was a U.S. citizen, but an officer broke the car’s driver’s side window and detained him. In a video, the boy can be heard telling an officer that he is a citizen, to which the officer replies, “Get out of the car” and “I don’t care.” www.oregonlive.com/portland/202...

High school senior, a U.S. citizen, detained by ICE in Oregon

The 17-year-old was held more than five hours Friday in an ICE facility, his brother said.

oregonlive.com

It's reported that the US government is going to announce they've found the cause of autism (Spoliers: They almost certainly haven't even found one new potential cause). Paracetemol (Tylenol) during pregnancy is the supposed culprit. This seems unlikely to put it mildly. (1)

Monarez agrees that vaccines are safe and effective, and outlines her worries about an anti-vax world. "I believe that preventable diseases would return, and our children will be harmed by things they do not need to be harmed by." She affirms that vaccines are a major public health advancement.

I really miss when the stats blogs I read had light-hearted examples like "here is the concept of a multi-variate outlier explained through beer" rather than "here is another example of a logical fallacy being shared by the head of a national health agency"

I took this picture myself at the CDC protest today. These are among the hundreds of bullet holes in CDC headquarters windows, visible from the street. I heard today that the admin has no urgent plan to fix these windows. Imagine being a CDC employee going to work under these conditions

CDC headquarters windows with visible bullet holes