Apparently, Putin and Trump are pushing to restore the highly shady gas pipeline scheme in Ukraine that existed since Kuchma and ended with Yanukovich fleeing Ukraine in 2013. Witkoff was peddling it during conversations with Budanov. Sick bastards
Oleksandr Shepotylo
@shepotylo.bsky.social
International Trade, Productivity, Security @ Aston Centre for Business Prosperity | Born and raised in Ukraine | Large data analysis enthusiast | Views my own #EconSky #trade #economics
💡 DID YOU KNOW? Clinton and Gore threatened Ukraine with economic sanctions and isolation if Ukraine refused to denuclearize in the early 1990s? This blackmail led to the Budapest Memorandum... and the deaths of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians today. newsukraine.rbc.ua/analytics/il...
Illusion of security: Why Budapest Memorandum failed to protect Ukraine from war
Read more
newsukraine.rbc.ua
Trump net approval rating remains net positive only in 3 states of US. I am looking forward West Virginia, which now has net +1 crosses on the other side.
This tweet is from 500 days ago. Apparently the "really bad things" that would happen to Putin and Russia if they refused to stop their war would be Trump lifting sanctions on them and paying them billions of dollars for less than a days worth of America's diesel needs.
Things may ( will?) unwind very quickly for the US - midterm election shock => financial and bond market de-risk => all those ridiculous stock market valuations burst, and lowish interest rates go through the roof => very interesting 2 more years ahead
Chris Jones@chrisjones1.bsky.social · 3w agoChrist alive, that US deficit
I have started a research project on UK car industry productivity. turns out, it went into accelerated decline post 2021. more results to follow
UK in a Changing Europe@ukandeu.bsky.social · 3w ago🚗 "Britain’s decline came in two Brexit stages: years of uncertainty post-referendum weakened the industry, before the trade arrangements that replaced EU membership did more lasting damage." @shepotylo.bsky.social explains how Brexit has damaged the UK car industry. ukandeu.ac.uk/from-pace-se...
Idea for research: The news on making Leonid Ragozin a persona non grata in Latvia exposed all members of the Russian disinformation network to come out and tweet against this decision. Can be considered how an exogenous shock propagate within a Russian built disinformation network.
World moved on since Brexit referendum, but it does not change the fact that EU is the closest and largest UK partner and productivity is linked to EU supply chain embeddedness www.productivity.ac.uk/news/the-opt...
The options are familiar. The world around them is not. - The Productivity Institute
Ten years after Brexit, what do we know about its impact on UK productivity? Jun Du explores the evidence and the changing UK-EU landscape.
productivity.ac.uk
In 2016 the UK built 30 cars for every 100 made in Germany. Today: 17. Before 2016 the UK outgrew Germany by 4.6pp a year. Brexit uncertainty cost 2.9pp a year. The TCA cost 8.2pp. Rules of origin, broken supply chains, and now "Made in Europe". shepotylo.com/blog/2026-10...
that's great, but beating Spain and Argentina is still on the wish list
Tucker Carlson says Russia's economy is bigger than Britain's. He's wrong. At market exchange rates, Russia's economy is about 64% the size of the UK's. His number uses PPP, which compares living standards, not economic power. shepotylo.com/blog/2026-10...
Is Russia’s economy bigger than Britain’s? Nominal GDP, PPP and the economics of isolation – Oleksandr Shepotylo
Tucker Carlson says Russia’s economy is larger than Britain’s. At PPP it is; at market exchange rates it is about two-thirds the size. Why the gap exists, why isolation widens it, and what the Soviet ...
shepotylo.com
A sign of dictatorship? Russian prices: +50% since the full-scale invasion. Worst of any major economy. In the West, half that inflation toppled governments. Russians just gave United Russia its largest Duma majority ever — 355/450 seats. shepotylo.com/blog/2026-09...
Fifty Percent: How Russia’s Cost-of-Living Crisis Became a Landslide – Oleksandr Shepotylo
Russian consumer prices are up 50% since 2022, the worst inflation among major economies, yet the Kremlin just won its biggest parliamentary majority ever. A look at why the bill never reaches the bal...
shepotylo.com
🚨 The headline numbers are large: a 53.8% decline in export product varieties to the EU and a 16.5% fall in export values (meaning that fewer types of products are now being sold by UK firms to the EU). Creating trade barriers with your largest trading partner is economically illiterate.
After SPS: the EU trade barrier that needs fixing next - British Chambers of Commerce
EAC member, Prof. Jun Du, explains how to solve the UK trade barriers with the EU.
britishchambers.org.uk
Thanks 27th ETSG in Exeter and looking forward to next ETSG 28th in Toledo
Joseph Stiglitz on how to build a better AI economy - giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... via @FT
Joseph Stiglitz on how to build a better AI economy
A slow rollout will disappoint investors. A fast one risks undermining the industry’s own foundations. But managed carefully, this is a technology that could benefit us all
giftarticle.ft.com
Yesterday the President offered to send $5000 to every adult American citizen. But where would he get the Trillion Dollars to pay for all these checks? Today the Market reacted. The 30-year US treasury rate jumped to 5.36%, highest since 2004. www.morningstar.com/news/dow-jon...
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Nears 5% as Oil Fuels Inflation Fears — 3rd Update
morningstar.com
Very long winded way of saying that nothing much new is expected to happen in UK EU trade. Though I'd add, compared to a few months ago, the UK has really slipped down the Brussels agenda (this is complicated by the uninformed always saying this) www.politico.eu/article/andy...
Andy Burnham’s big new Brexit deal isn’t coming anytime soon
The new prime minister’s red lines are making a more radical reimagining of the U.K.-EU relationship implausible, EU officials say.
politico.eu
It is time for citizens of Saxony-Anhalt to establish Saxony-Anhalt People's Republic and ask Russia to incorporate them into Russian Federation
Trump set reducing trade balance as a primary objective of his economic policy. He thought that imposing "reciprocal" tariffs would help to achieve it. He was wrong and we (trade economist) told him so He presided over 5 most negative monthly trade balances in the whole history of the US
Nigel Farage filmed celebrating illegal foreign donations Undercover footage reveals plot to break the law by funnelling offshore funds through a UK donor. Donations funded a series of widely reported polls boosting Reform ahead of the local elections channel4news.substack.com/p/exclusive-...
That is a very important question as many people think they understand economics and can call themselves economists like they think they can coach a national football team without proper training and specialist knowledge
Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com · 2mo agoWhen is an economist not an economist? Do I count? My @FT column this week explores... www.ft.com/content/89f0...
Also, notice that the fastest growth strongly correlates with countries of Nazi coalition - it was catching up after the WWII collapse and distraction, nothing to do with Soviet developmental policies, so perhaps you can move forward a thesis that losing a war is good for economic growth?
Oleksandr Shepotylo@shepotylo.bsky.social · 2mo agoThere was nothing special about Finland economic growth, it was a poor country terrorized by first Russian Empire and then USSR for decades, coming out of a devastating conflict. It was doomed to grow as Europe was having its growth miracle. So Finlandization was not beneficial for growth.
Inexplicably, Western journalists continue to perpetuate outdated imperialist stereotypes when reporting on 'Eastern Europe', despite knowing better. Bad Baltic Takes has therefore compiled a much-needed style guide to address this issue. www.badbaltic.com/if-eastern-e...
If Eastern Europeans reported the world like the world reports Eastern Europe
Here’s what those tropes, clichés, and stereotypes sound like in reverse.
badbaltic.com
OTD in 1939 the Molotov Ribbentrop pact was signed. It remains one of the very few treaties we have honored.
🙏🇺🇦 People take shelter in an underground parking lot during the Russian missile strikes on Kyiv. Two people have already died in the attack, six people have been injured. ❗️A school building was damaged in the Solomyanskyi district of the capital, people are trapped in a shelter, — KMVA
Claude has told me already 3 times to switch from VS Code to Positron. Coincidence?
🚨🚨 #EUsanctions: Austria's intelligence agency uncovered an international network #circumventing EU sanctions imposed against #Moscow to supply #Russian cruise missiles and fighter jets, the country's Interior Ministry announced yesterday. 🧵 kyivindependent.com/austria-unco...
Austria uncovers international network circumventing EU sanctions to supply Russian cruise missiles, jets
"We will continue to take decisive action, with full international cooperation, against those actors who attempt to circumvent legal prohibitions to support the Russian arms industry," Austrian State ...
kyivindependent.com
