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Simone Cremaschi

@simonecremaschi.bsky.social

Departmental Lecturer in Comparative European Politics at University of Oxford. 🌐 simonecremaschi.com

151 Posts1659 Follower 587 Folgt

Maria Carreri @mariacarreri.bsky.social · last wk.

New paper in @jeeanews.bsky.social with @martinezluis.bsky.social! Fiscal rules have quietly become a central feature of local governments around the world. But do they improve government or simply impose politically costly austerity? We study one such reform in Colombia. 🧵 sl1nk.com/zs0m0a4

Will Allen @williamlallen.bsky.social · 3w ago

Which immigrants do people prefer and why? Many point to skill levels, but @mfreino.bsky.social @isabel-ruiz.bsky.social and I argue people also consider the social value of work immigrants do, even if considered "lower" skilled. Open access in @ejprjournal.bsky.social: doi.org/10.1017/S147... 🧵

Title: Beyond skills: How occupational essentiality and social value relate to attitudes toward immigrant labor.
Authors: William L. Allen, Mariña Fernández-Reino, and Isabel Ruiz
Abstract: Research on public attitudes toward immigration consistently shows that people prefer higher- over lower-skilled immigrants, largely for sociotropic economic and fiscal reasons. We argue that this account is incomplete: citizens also evaluate immigrant workers according to the essentiality and social value of the work they perform, alongside formal skills and education. We conceptualize two logics for evaluating occupations – economic-fiscal and moral-social – that shape attitudes toward labor immigrants, before testing this argument in two studies in the UK. Study 1 uses a preregistered conjoint survey experiment (N = 4,951) fielded during the UK’s third COVID-19 lockdown in January 2021. Respondents evaluated hypothetical labor immigrants varying in occupation, skill level, and origin. Immigrants working in occupations designated as ‘essential’ during the pandemic were substantially more likely to be preferred for admission (by about 22 percentage points) and more likely to be viewed as economically beneficial (by about 10 percentage points) than those in nonessential jobs, net of skill. Study 2 reports results from an online survey (N = 1,944) fielded in 2025 measuring perceptions of occupational essentiality, social value, economic value, prestige, skill, and labor shortages. Perceived essentiality is strongly associated with social value while remaining distinct from skill and prestige. Importantly, perceptions of occupational essentiality remained stable over time and correlated with preferences for admitting immigrants in those same occupations. Together, these findings highlight occupational essentiality as a distinct and consequential driver of immigration attitudes with implications for labor migration debates and policymaking.

Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 2mo ago

Remember that recent paper claiming to show that "ideological bias" determined the results obtained by immigration policy research teams? A careful, open-code reanalysis by @kauspurg.bsky.social & Josef Brüderl finds that the result arises from a coding error. —> doi.org/10.31222/osf...

Mashail Malik @mamalik.bsky.social · 2mo ago

We have a new paper out on what the large conjoint literature tells us about public opinion on immigrant characteristics:

Marcel Roman@mfroman.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🚨NEW PUBLICATION🚨 in Science Advances. We meta-reanalyze 100 conjoint experiments to assess which immigrants citizens prefer around the world. Our evidence reinforces existing findings, identifies novel insights, and provides a basis for future research 1/n www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Grazie a Il Manifesto per aver raccontato il nostro studio sulla memorializzazione della Resistenza e dell’antifascismo nei comuni italiani oggi, in occasione del 25 Aprile. ilmanifesto.it/uneredita-vi...

Un’eredità viva: celebrare non basta | il manifesto

25 aprile (Alias) Come politicizzare la memoria storica della Resistenza partigiana? Una ricerca recente di Cremaschi e Masullo pubblicata sulla rivista Comparative Political Studies nel 2025, offre u...

ilmanifesto.it

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 3mo ago

Thank you for having us @eleala.bsky.social !

Department of Economics, Uni of Bath @econuniofbath.bsky.social · 3mo ago

It's been great to host the PEPE Workshop 2026! Many thanks to all speakers and participants for two very stimulating days of presentations and discussions, and for making the workshop such an engaging event — already looking forward to the next edition!

Fabrizio Bernardi @fabriberna.bsky.social · 3mo ago

New paper out in Annual Review of Sociology with @arnoutvanderijt.bsky.social #W.Foley and @l-sage.bsky.social "Luck and Predictability in the Life Course" We take stock of what we know about luck and its role in shaping life-courses and inequality www.annualreviews.org/content/jour...

Luck and Predictability in the Life Course

There is an emerging recognition among sociological theorists that luck may play a substantial role in life course achievement. There is also a nascent empirical literature that finds life outcomes to...

annualreviews.org

Andrew Heiss @andrew.heiss.phd · 4mo ago

I've been using random seeds for years but I have no idea how they work. Seeds somehow(?) make the same random numbers? So I figured it out! New post includes an interactive PRNG generator, lava lamps, lottery fraud, @random.org, Chaucer, and Minecraft #rstats www.andrewheiss.com/blog/2026/04...

$An interactive OJS playground demonstrating a linear congruential generator (LCG) using the formula X_n = (aX_{n-1} + c) mod m. Controls on the left set modulus (m=8), multiplier (a=5), increment (c=3), seed (X_0=1), and numbers to generate (12). A table on the right shows the resulting sequence of X values, intermediate calculations, mod m results, and normalized values X_n/m, with the final "random" numbers highlighted in yellow.$

Excerpt from the blog post with R code that tests all seeds from 1 to 10,000 to find which ones produce 10 heads in a row when simulating coin flips. The possible_seeds data frame is filtered to show 10 seeds (614, 1667, 3212, 4166, 4580, 5527, 5824, 7365, 7468, 8975) that meet this criterion. The post notes that seed 614 actually produces 13 heads in a row, confirmed with a withr::with_seed(614, ...) call below.

R console output demonstrating that set.seed(1234) produces reproducible results. The first block calls runif(5) and returns five values: 0.1137, 0.6223, 0.6093, 0.6234, 0.8609. The second block uses the same seed but splits the draw into runif(2) then runif(3), returning the same five values in the same order, showing that the sequence is preserved regardless of how many numbers are drawn at a time.

Table of contents for the post:

Introduction
Seeds and reproducible randomness
My (somewhat incorrect) mental model of how seeds work
Making “random” numbers with an equation
Live interactive playground
Cycles and fancier algorithms
Why does it matter if “random” numbers aren’t actually random?
You’re limiting yourself to narrow, known universes
You can seed hack and get any values you want
Real world bad things can happen because of pseudorandom numbers
Can computers even create true randomness?
Moving a mouse around
Lava lamps
Atmospheric noise
How I use true randomness in my own work
“…as an ook cometh of a litel spyr…”

Gloria Gennaro @gloriagennaro.bsky.social · 4mo ago

New paper out in @thejop.bsky.social : "Immigration, Public Housing, and Support for the French National Front." How does expanding public housing affect far-right support? The answer depends heavily on local conditions, and specifically on local immigrant shares. Paper: doi.org/10.1086/736361

Asad L. Asad @asadasad.bsky.social · 4mo ago

NEW (and open access!) in @pnas.org: We find that Secure Communities triggered “preemptive” immigration enforcement, increasing detentions, transfers, & removals even before formal county activation. Joint with @cvargas100.bsky.social and @immigrationlab.bsky.social www.pnas.org/doi/epdf/10....

Screenshot of title and abstract of article, “Reconsideration of Secure Communities rollout reveals preemptive local-federal cooperation in immigration enforcement.”

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Does public service deprivation boost support for the populist right? New evidence in our paper, conditionally accepted at APSR 🥳, where we study how GP closures shape voting intentions in England. 👇

Zach Dickson@zachdickson.bsky.social · 4mo ago

Thrilled that my paper (w/@sarahobolt.bsky.social,@catherinedevries.bsky.social,@simonecremaschi.bsky.social) was accepted at the American Political Science Review! We find that declining public services fuel support for the populist right — and show why the right benefits more than other parties 🧵

Matt Blackwell @mattblackwell.bsky.social · 4mo ago

mariozechner.at/posts/2026-0...

Text from linked article “There's a much more important difference between clanker and hu-man. A human is a bottleneck. A human cannot shit out 20,000 lines of code in a few hours. Even if the human creates such booboos at high frequency, there's only so many booboos the human can introduce in a codebase per day. The booboos will compound at a very slow rate.
Usually, if the booboo pain gets too big, the human, who hates pain, will spend some time fixing up the booboos. Or the human gets fired and someone else fixes up the booboos. So the pain goes away.
With an orchestrated army of agents, there is no bottleneck, no human pain. These tiny little harmless booboos suddenly compound at a rate that's unsustainable. You have removed yourself from the loop, so you don't even know that all the innocent booboos have formed a monster of a codebase. You only feel the pain when it's too late.

Philine Widmer @phinifa.bsky.social · 6mo ago

Can feed algorithms shape what people think about politics? Our paper "The Political Effects of X's Feed Algorithm" is out today in Nature and answers "Yes." www.nature.com/articles/s41...

Carmen Villa @carmenvillaecon.bsky.social · 6mo ago

🚨📰New WP 🚨📰 How does social housing design affect neighborhoods decades later? We study London gangs to show that postwar urban planning—specifically high-rise public housing construction—had lasting effects on gang formation @cep-lse.bsky.social

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 7mo ago

New year, new chapter: I’m starting a new position at @ox.ac.uk. Thrilled to join DPIR as a Departmental Lecturer and Nuffield College as an Associate Member. Looking forward to what’s ahead!

Guy Grossman @guygrossman.bsky.social · 7mo ago

@yangyangzhou.bsky.social, @shuningge.bsky.social Naijia Liu, and I have a new (AND BETTER) draft of our paper "Liberalizing Refugee Hosting Policies withoutLosing the Vote". Link: osf.io/preprints/os... Comments are welcome!

Bastian Becker @beckerbastian.bsky.social · 7mo ago

🥳 New year, new publication 📑"Contested memories: the political effects of de-commemoration proposals" @jeppjournal.bsky.social With Francesco Colombo, we study a street renaming proposal in Berlin and find -contrary to conventional wisdom- no political backlash, but a positive feedback effect.

Michael Clemens @mclem.org · 7mo ago

A new paper by George Borjas—who served this past year in the Trump White House designing some of its anti-immigration policies—claims to display evidence of ideological bias among researchers who study immigration. doi.org/10.1126/scia... 🧵 Thread—>

International Karl Polanyi Society @kpolanyisociety.bsky.social · 8mo ago

4. Ecological crises as accelerator of the far-right @jksteinberger.bsky.social, Céline Keller and @simonecremaschi.bsky.social show that climate shocks hit hardest where austerity has hollowed out public services, breeding narratives of state abandonment and boosting the far-right (5/6)

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 8mo ago

A great overview of a great special issue, including our paper on the legacies of antifascist resistance in Italy. Thank you again @laiabalcells.bsky.social @apvjustino.bsky.social @andrearuggeri.bsky.social !

Laia Balcells@laiabalcells.bsky.social · 8mo ago

First time writing for Broadstreet blog! With @apvjustino.bsky.social and @andrearuggeri.bsky.social, we wrote about the Special Issue just published at Comparative Political Studies: www.broadstreet.blog/p/legacies-o...

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Now out in QMMR (Notes from the Field): I reflect on my PhD fieldwork in informal camps of migrant farmworkers in Italy, and on how the slow work of building trust in a challenging field environment radically reshaped my research questions and methods doi.org/10.5281/zeno...

Like a CCTV in an Informal Migrant Camp: Rethinking Research While Building Trust in the Field

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doi.org

Ozan Aksoy @aksoyundan.bsky.social · 8mo ago

📢 Analytical sociology is coming home! Call 4 INAS26 is open 🌍 1-3Jul26 @nuffieldcollege.bsky.social and @sociologyoxford.bsky.social (☔) ☢️ Deadline: 1Feb26 🦹 Organisers: @aksoyundan.bsky.social , @kasimirdederichs.bsky.social, D Kretschmer, @awaldendorf.bsky.social Info: tinyurl.com/yc2tusjx

INAS Conference 2026 - Nuffield College Oxford University

tinyurl.com

Saloni @scientificdiscovery.dev · 8mo ago

Big new blogpost! My guide to data visualization, which includes a very long table of contents, tons of charts, and more. --> Why data visualization matters and how to make charts more effective, clear, transparent, and sometimes, beautiful. www.scientificdiscovery.dev/p/salonis-gu...

Duncan McDonnell @duncanmcdonnell.com · 8mo ago

🎁 Christmas has come early for @ammassarisofia.bsky.social & me with the publication of our article "The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century" in @politicalgeography.bsky.social: www.sciencedirect.com/science/arti...

The geography of the party on the ground: Local branches in Italy and Sweden in the late twentieth century

The idea that the presence of Western European political parties at grassroots level rose and fell in the twentieth century is central to some of the …

sciencedirect.com

Simone Cremaschi @simonecremaschi.bsky.social · 8mo ago

💪

IMPRS-PHDS@imprs-phds.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Many thanks to everyone who took part in the 7th IMPRS-PHDS Academy at @mpidr.bsky.social, either in person or online, and helped to make it such a success. Big congratulations to Andrea Colasurdo, Chiara Micheletti and @lauraleone.bsky.social on winning the Best Poster Award!

Thomas Zeitzoff @zeitzoff.bsky.social · 8mo ago

Agree with much of what Cyrus says in his blog post and the comments below. I'd add that some of the best recent work in poli sci is mixed methods, and uses a combo of observational data, experiments/quasi-experiments, and in-depth interviews/case studies to answer a puzzle from multiple angles.

Cyrus Samii@cdsamii.bsky.social · 8mo ago

A blog post giving a more thorough take on survey experiments and the credibility revolution: cyrussamii.com?p=4168

Konstantin Bogatyrev @bogatyrev.bsky.social · 9mo ago

Our paper just got accepted in the @thejop.bsky.social 🎉 and is now on the journal website: www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1086/... For me personally, it's a milestone: my first paper accepted after a peer review!

The Electoral Effects of State-Sponsored Anti-LGBTQ Measures | The Journal of Politics: Vol 0, No ja

journals.uchicago.edu

Konstantin Bogatyrev@bogatyrev.bsky.social · last yr.

🚨Working paper alert🚨 This was the first project I started in my PhD, blessed with amazing co-authors! Glad to finally share our findings. Long story short: even largely symbolic and declarative state-sponsored homophobia can translate into real political behavior 👇

Magda Breyer @mabreyer.bsky.social · 9mo ago

New article out in @cpsjournal.bsky.social with Tabea Palmtag and @dpzollinger.bsky.social 📝 We use open-ended survey questions (in Germany) to assess how and among whom social status shifts are perceived. This tests cultural backlash narratives in voters' perceptions. 🔗 doi.org/10.1177/0010...

Abstract
It is widely accepted in political science – and remarkably established in public discourse – that status anxieties fuel a far right backlash against progressive politics. This narrative suggests that right-wing conservatives perceive the status of women, racial, or sexual minorities as threatening. Using open-ended survey questions fielded in Germany, we show that women and minorities indeed figure in people’s perceptions of status hierarchies, but in very specific ways: First, overall, people still perceive status as largely socioeconomically determined. Second, sociocultural groups figure in perceptions of who is gaining/losing status, less so in perceptions of the top/bottom of society. Third, more than conservative voters, it is social progressives who mention women and minorities as “winners”. While on race/ethnicity, we find evidence for a backlash, on gender and sexuality we find more evidence for a progressive momentum. This matters for progressive politics today and for how we empirically study status concerns.

Zach Dickson @zachdickson.bsky.social · 9mo ago

🚨 New working paper 🚨 We often see populist parties like Reform UK blame higher energy bills on climate change policies. What are the political consequences of this strategy? Very early draft; comments and criticisms are welcomed! full draft: z-dickson.github.io/assets/dicks...