Isaac Schluesche

@slushywx.bsky.social

M.S. student at Colorado State University studying tropical cyclones + airborne radar. B.S. CS + Atmospheric/Oceanic Sciences from UW-Madison. Also enjoys diving + photography + storm chasing + television + Wisconsin Sports + F1

Sneaky chance for a tornado along the warm front in Southern Wisconsin this afternoon. Many convective allowing models have been advertising some UH tracks through the area. This seems like a fair notion, as gravity waves breaking down into TCU on satellite indicate instability and MKX VWP has

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Just a phenomenal example of a textbook tornado supercell in western Texas ongoing right now. Classic hook echo, gargantuan mesocyclone, and an extraordinarily impressive ZDR signature likely indicative of giant hail.

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Optimistic for chances of auroral activity across CONUS over next 48 hours. M8 flare produced impressive CME beginning at about 01:00 UTC in below loop. It's classified as a "full halo" given its expanse entirely around the sun, meaning at least some of the ejecta is heading directly toward Earth.

Extended range modeling is starting to show the first hints of activity in the tropical Atlantic this season. Weak MJO pulse likely impetus for this signal, but dynamical modeling is inconsistent with its evolution - something to watch, but chances of development are pretty low in my estimation.

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I don't think I have much to add to the forecast thoughts today that hasn't already been said, but I do like to write things out. From a synoptics perspective, it's hard to get more textbook than this. Beautiful upper wave ejecting from the Four Corners region over sharp dryline + deep surface low.

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Forecast thoughts from Guymon, Oklahoma this morning. At the surface, pocket of Tds > 65 across N TX advecting north/northwestward. Cirrus associated with 300 hPa wave will hopefully clear the area by early afternoon, allowing for a couple hours of insolation.