House forecast update, 9/22/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 77.5% (🔺1.4%) 🔴Republicans: 22.5% (🔻1.4%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 237.2 (🔺1) 🔴Republicans: 197.8 (🔻1) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)
SnoutCounter
@snoutcounter.bsky.social
A statistical modeling site that engages in poll aggregation and election modeling, and maybe more in the future! Run by @hackquantumcpp.bsky.social See here: https://snoutcounter.works/
Fixed a bug in my generic ballot averages. This bug originates from some changes made on Sept 10 to bring the generic ballot average in line with the historical generic ballot averages, specifically to steadily make them more reactive after Labor Day. The bug made them *too* reactive, though.
Interestingly, this Labor Day boost for Democrats seems to resemble a similar boost Democrats experienced in 2018:
SnoutCounter@snoutcounter.bsky.social · 2w agoFor the first this cycle, Democrats have broken 50% in the generic ballot average. They are at 50.32% in my polling average, versus the Republicans at 42.81%. This is a D+7.51 spread.
For the first this cycle, Democrats have broken 50% in the generic ballot average. They are at 50.32% in my polling average, versus the Republicans at 42.81%. This is a D+7.51 spread.
I've added this poll to my dataset and re-run my generic ballot average and House model. This has moved the needle slightly towards Dems - D+7.12 --> D+7.38 in generic ballot, Dems' chance of winning the House goes from 71.3% to 72.5%
Polling USA@usapolling.bsky.social · 2w agoGeneric Ballot Polling: 🔵 DEM: 51% 🔴 GOP: 42% Cygnal / Sept 2, 2026 (Republican Pollster)
You can now see time series charts for forecasted odds and vote shares for individual congressional districts in my forecast! Here is the chart for MI-10, the current most likely tipping point as per my model:
As the generic ballot swings in favor of Democrats, they are now very slightly favored to win MI-04 in our forecast, which up until now had Republicans slightly favored. This is only a tiny advantage, though - the race is still a coin toss. It has approx equal chance of going either way.
House forecast update, 9/9/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 71.3% (🔺3.8%) 🔴Republicans: 28.7%(🔻3.8%) Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 232.8 (🔺2) 🔴Republicans: 202.2 (🔻2) (🔺/🔻 Change from Yesterday)
Generic ballot, 9/10/2026 Margin: D+7.12% ---------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 49.34% 🔴Republicans: 42.22%
Trump's approval on the Iran war, 9/10/2026 Net approval: -33.02% --------------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 30.16% 🟣Disapprove: 63.18%
Trump's approval on the issues, 9/10/2026 Crime: -11.98% Immigration: -13.03% Foreign policy: -24.97% Healthcare: -28.08% Trade & tariffs: -30.23% Economy: -31.74% Inflation & cost of living: -45.43%
Trump's approval among registered voters, 9/10/2026 Net approval: -18.7% -------------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 38.8% 🟣Disapprove: 57.51%
Trump's approval rating, 9/10/2026 Net approval: -21.52% -------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 36.64% 🟣Disapprove: 58.15%
Trump's approval on trade and the economy have both fallen precipitously over the past month, likely in large part due to the trade war with Canada
SnoutCounter@snoutcounter.bsky.social · 2w agoTrump's approval on the issues, 9/9/2026 Crime: -11.91% Immigration: -11.93% Foreign policy: -24.56% Healthcare: -28% Trade/tariffs: -30.17% Economy: -31.63% Inflation/cost of living: -45.36%
I haven't posted in some time, so here are some time series charts showing how the chances and mean seats for each party have changed over the past week:
SnoutCounter@snoutcounter.bsky.social · 2w agoHouse forecast update, 9/9/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 67.5% 🔴Republicans: 32.5% Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 230.8 🔴Republicans: 204.2
House forecast update, 9/9/2026 Chamber Win Probability: 🔵Democrats: 67.5% 🔴Republicans: 32.5% Mean Simulated Seats: 🔵Democrats: 230.8 🔴Republicans: 204.2
Generic ballot, 9/9/2026 Margin: D+6.8% ---------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 49.53% 🔴Republicans: 42.73%
Trump's approval on handling the Iran war Net approval: -32.37% -------------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 30.53% 🟣Disapprove: 62.89%
Trump's approval on the issues, 9/9/2026 Crime: -11.91% Immigration: -11.93% Foreign policy: -24.56% Healthcare: -28% Trade/tariffs: -30.17% Economy: -31.63% Inflation/cost of living: -45.36%
Trump's approval among registered voters, 9/9/2026 Net approval: -18.35% ------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 39.1% 🟣Disapprove: 57.44%
Trump's approval, 9/9/2026 Net approval: -21.25% ----------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 36.86% 🟣Disapprove: 58.12%
Apologies for not posting model/polling updates in a while, I'll try to post more regularly
Wrt the Missouri maps for my forecast - I'm gonna track the situation + look at other forecasters to see how things will shape up before changing the maps utilized for my forecast
House forecast update, 9/2/2026 Chamber Win Probability 🔵Democrats: 66.5% (🔺0.3%) 🔴Republicans: 33.5% (🔻0.3%) Mean Simulated Seats 🔵Democrats: 230.2 (🔺0.2) 🔴Republicans: 204.8 (🔻0.2) (🔺/🔻Change from Yesterday)
Generic ballot, 9/1/2026 Margin: D+6.57% ------------------------------- 🔵Democrats: 49.15% 🔴Republicans: 42.58%
Trump's approval on the Iran war, 9/1/2026 Net approval: -33.09% -------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 29.89% 🟣Disapprove: 62.99%
Trump's approval on the issues, 9/1/2026 Immigration: -14.09% Crime: -14.32% Foreign policy: -26.25% Trade & tariffs: -26.93% Healthcare: -27.8% Economy: -29.93% Inflation & prices: -45.19%
Trump's approval rating among registered voters, 9/1/2026 Net approval: -18.1% ----------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 39.22% 🟣Disapprove: 57.32%
Trump's approval rating, 9/1/2026 Net approval: -21.2% --------------------------------------- 🟢Approve: 36.77% 🟣Disapprove: 57.97%
