🆕 Can forecasting social science make experiments better? Today on VoxDev, Stefano DellaVigna (UC Berkeley) &Eva Vivalt (University of Toronto) discuss why research forecasts overestimate effects, and how to correct and reweight them: https://ow.ly/jfjL50ZpWlv

Can forecasting social science make experiments better?

Evidence from 100 Social Science Prediction Platform projects shows that research forecasts are too optimistic on average, but still predictive enough to improve study design when they are combined, shrunk, and weighted carefully.

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📣Closing Friday: how effective are strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in the US? Check out this survey and the other 6 currently open on the platform! Craig Fox, Megan Weber, and Craig Brimhall invite predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e3...

Field Experiment Promoting Voter Registration Checks

We conducted a field experiment that examined the effectiveness of various messaging strategies for promoting the completion of voter registration checks in an online setting in the United States. We ...

socialscienceprediction.org

🚨 3 surveys close this week! SSPP teams invite forecasts on: Closing Sun, June 27: Capital and Labor Income Mobility - 5 min Closing Tues, June 30: Complementarity from multiple interventions - 10 min Employers’ beliefs about hybrid work - 15 min socialscienceprediction.org/predict/

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

🚨 5 projects are currently open for forecasts on the SSPP, including a project closing today on overconfidence in people and LLMs! Make your predictions here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

🚨 3 surveys close Sept 28 - 30! Get your predictions in by the end of the month: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1. Digital Mental Health: Evidence from Mexico 2. Aid, Economic Recovery and Social Cohesion in Post-War Iraq 3. Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

📢 New on the SSPP: does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioeconomic skills? Ramin Izadi et al. welcome your predictions. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e3... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: Oct 15

Does an extra year of preschool improve academic and socioemotional skills?

We conducted a large-scale field experiment in Finland that advanced the start of mandatory preschool by one year. The RCT is authorized under temporary legislation and will inform an active policy de...

socialscienceprediction.org

📣 Interested in making more forecasts? Want to get paid for doing so? Apply for the SSPP Forecasting Panel! Panelists receive $400 a year + a $300 bonus for high accuracy. Apply here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/09... @cega-uc.bsky.social @evavivalt.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

Apply to Join our SSPP Forecasting Panel 2.0!

Would you like to stay informed about the latest developments in social science research, assess your forecasting accuracy, and receive financial compensation for your participation in the process? Ap...

socialscienceprediction.org

🚨3 surveys close Sunday, Aug 31! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1️⃣ Role of monthly office days in a fully remote work model 2️⃣ Correlation between statistical significance and media attention -💰incentives based on forecast accuracy 3️⃣ Effects of providing information to potential workers

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: is there a correlation between statistical significance and media attention? Lester Lusher, Sunmi Jung, and Brianna Funderburk welcome your predictions: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/db... 💰Incentives based on accuracy ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Economics 🗓️Closes: Aug 31

🚨 Closing tomorrow! Forecast how accurate people are at forecasting with the SSPP team's meta-survey: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f...

Forecasting the SSPP Research Results

Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: what are the economic impacts of university-affiliated research parks? Make forecasts below on this study by @mihaicod.bsky.social: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/46... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Labor Econ 🗓️Closes: Oct 31

The Economic Impact of University Research Parks

We are conducting a study to understand the estimated economic impacts of university-affiliated research parks. Your participation in this survey will help us gather anonymous information on the perce...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: What is the impact of VAT exemptions on food in an informal setting in Papua New Guinea? Christopher Hoy et al. welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/2b... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: Sept 30

Informality, Incidence, and Pass-through of VAT Exemptions

We are soliciting expert predictions about a project analyzing the pass-through and incidence of Value Added Tax (VAT) exemptions on food in a low-income setting with very high levels of informality. ...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: What will be the outcomes of a livelihood support program in Iraq for microentrepreneurs? Study by Andrea Caflisch et al. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/e5... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Dev Econ 🗓️Closes: Sept 30

Aid, Economic Recovery, and Social Cohesion in Post-War Iraq

The protracted nature of recent displacement crises has resulted in increased interest from policymakers, donors, and aid organizations in durable solutions for the challenges faced by the forcibly di...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: How does remote work impact job satisfaction and productivity among call center agents in Turkey? Study by Cevat Giray Aksoy, @nickbloom.bsky.social, and co-authors. socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/17... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: Aug 31

The Role of Monthly Office Days in a Fully Remote Work Model

This trial assesses the impact of remote work with monthly office visits on productivity and job satisfaction among call center agents in Sanliurfa, Turkey. In the partner institution, agents typicall...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: what are the impacts of an AI-driven mental health smartphone app in Mexico? @mangeluc.bsky.social @raissafabregas.bsky.social, and Antonia Vazquez welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/56... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: Aug 13

New short meta-survey on the SSPP: can you predict how well people predict? Try your hand at it: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/0f... @socscipredict.bsky.social @sdellavi.bsky.social

Forecasting the SSPP Research Results

Increasingly, researchers gather forecasts ex ante about the results of their research studies. Ex post, this allows for a comparison with the results to gauge contributions to the literature. But wha...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: How does providing information on attractive occupations to job seekers impact employment and earnings? @bryanstuart.bsky.social and coauthors welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/01... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Labor Econ 🗓️Closes: Jul 31

🚨4 surveys close Mon, June 30th! Make your predictions at: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ 1⃣ Predicting tax non-compliance in Kampala, Uganda 2⃣ Politically motivated reasoning 3⃣ Predicting the impacts of self-promotion 4⃣ Do different effect sizes in meta-analyses lead to different conclusions?

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

Delighted to have received an Alfred P. Sloan Foundation grant for the next phase of the Social Science Prediction Platform! Some exciting new developments coming soon... watch this space! @socscipredict.bsky.social @sloanfoundation.bsky.social @econuoft.bsky.social ft.bsky.social

New on the SSPP: How does using self-promotional language impact responses to requests for support? @jennychang.bsky.social et al. designed a field experiment and invite you to predict their findings: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/6e... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ, Psych 🗓️Closes: June 30

Predicting the impacts of self-promotion

We study the impacts of self-promotional language on responses to informal requests for support. We conducted a field experiment where we emailed researchers a request to help a team advance an ongoin...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: How does subsidizing early-maturity rice seeds and farmer education impact farmers' decisions in Punjab? New study by Piyush Gandhi, who welcomes your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/ad... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: July 15

Predicting the Impacts of Input Subsidy and Training on Environmental Outcomes in Agriculture

This study explores how subsidizing early-maturity rice seeds and providing information on sustainable crop residue management affect farmers’ decisions in Punjab, India. Your responses will help us u...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: Do different effect sizes in meta-analyses lead to different conclusions? April Wang et al. look forward to your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/66... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30

DO DIFFERENT EFFECT SIZES IN META-ANALYSES LEAD TO DIFFERENT CONCLUSIONS?

This survey seeks your views on whether meta-analyses are likely to produce different conclusions when using alternative effect sizes.

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: Do business support programs actually help businesses grow and succeed in the UK? Maria Brackin and Rob Fuller welcome your predictions on turnover and employment outcomes! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/ ⏱️15 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

🚨Closing this Saturday, May 31! How accurate are CEO forecasts of future revenues? Don't miss the chance to make a prediction on this survey and be entered into the lottery for $100.

Social Science Prediction Platform (SSPP)@socscipredict.bsky.social · last yr.

New on the SSPP: How do CEOs forecast future revenues and how accurate are they? @nickbloom.bsky.social, @mihaicod.bsky.social, and Robert Fletcher welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/85... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Management 🗓️Closes: May 31

New on the SSPP: What are the attributes of politically motivated reasoning? Robin Musolff & Guy Yanay invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/93... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: June 30 💰Lottery-based incentives

🏆 Winner Announced! 🏆 Congratulations to Alexander Coutts & Séverine Toussaert — winners of the 2025 SSPP Outstanding Use of Forecasts Award ($10,000) for “Beliefs about choice reversals”! See the winning survey here: socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/f6...

Beliefs about choice reversals

In this study, you will submit a total of 21 forecasts related to how individuals make choices about future work allocations, what they believe about their future work allocations, as well as other re...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: How prevalent is tax non-compliance among businesses in Kampala, Uganda? Yannick Markhof, Stephan Dietrich, and Rose Camille Vincent invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Econ 🗓️Closes: May 31

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

🚨Closing tomorrow! Some online retailers use nudges to influence choices. But do consumers find them ethical? @kellenmrkva.bsky.social, Ashley Otto, and Yuna Choe invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/...

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: How do CEOs forecast future revenues and how accurate are they? @nickbloom.bsky.social, @mihaicod.bsky.social, and Robert Fletcher welcome your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/r/85... ⏱️Time: 10 min 📚Field: Management 🗓️Closes: May 31

Rationalizing Firm Forecasts

This project examines a panel survey of quarterly sales forecasts for 6,000 firms. Firm CEOs are asked to predict future revenues that are matched to assess accuracy. We are interested in how data use...

socialscienceprediction.org

New on the SSPP: How did "deep" efforts to turn out the vote compare to standard approaches in the 2024 general election? Daniel Markovits and Donald Green invite your predictions! socialscienceprediction.org/predict/rbq/... ⏱️Time: 5 min 📚Field: Poli Sci 🗓️Closes: April 30

Social Science Prediction Platform

Predict research results, improve social science.

socialscienceprediction.org