Anthropic's CEO says AI could wipe out half of all entry-level white-collar jobs. Victorian bootmakers suggest a different possibility. A story about sewing machines, economics, and why history can help us think more clearly about AI. newsletter.platypuseconomics.com/p/what-victo...

What Bootmakers Can Teach Us About AI

Anthropic's CEO warns AI could erase half of entry-level jobs. Victorian England suggests a different possibility.

newsletter.platypuseconomics.com

Sensible to iron out any falls in household income from a young person taking an apprenticeship (as always, devil in detail). But also need to double down on increasing high quality apprenticeships: you can't take up an apprenticeship that doesn't exist.

Learning and Work Institute@learnworkuk.bsky.social · 10h ago

In @bigissue.com, @stephenevans.bsky.social welcomes the new bursary for families who currently lose money if a child starts an apprenticeship. ⬇️📰 Stephen also calls for more apprenticeship opportunities for young people: "We need to go much further and faster on increasing youth apprenticeships."

A bit from me on devo max and the outlines of an emerging question: what will councils be for? as.ft.com/r/731ed47f-f...

Andy Burnham rewires the ‘unaccountable’ state

Prime minister’s opening devolution gambit does not lack ambition

as.ft.com

Initial reflections. 1. Good to focus rather than have a laundry list. 2. Lots of this happens now but patchy. Need to support public bodies to do it well & monitor delivery. 3. Public procurement is huge so chance to drive change. But you do also need to deliver VfM for thing you're buying!

UK to strip back procurement rules to focus on job creation, says Louise Haigh

Andy Burnham’s de facto deputy PM says requirements for businesses vying for Whitehall contracts will be streamlined

ft.com

Our new paper has an explanation for both slowing TFP growth and increasing R&D that is consistent with the Fort et al interpretation that the links between a firm’s R&D and *other* firms’ productivity has weakened.

Soumaya Keynes@soumayakeynes.ft.com · last mo.

Are ideas getting harder to find? Almost a decade ago, a banger of a study said YES. Over decades the US economy had been ploughing resources into R&D, with only slowing TFP growth to show for it. BUT newer evidence suggests more grounds for optimism 🧵 My latest column: as.ft.com/r/ee54d3c9-c...

New piece from me: Getting over the 2030 energy bill bump On how we're in a period of unusually high energy bills that we should be able to escape from - but only if we start making serious progress on electrification www.nesta.org.uk/blog/the-ene...

The energy edit: getting over the 2030 energy bill bump

Every six weeks Andrew Sissons assesses the most important signals and trends underpinning the UK’s energy transition.

nesta.org.uk

This is excellent and well timed work from Re:State. And not just because they’ve proposed naming a region the Greater East Midlands. Good to see recent work on funding social care too.

Charlotte Pickles@charliepickles.bsky.social · 6d ago

What might Burnham's fiscal devo mean for current strategic authorities? We worked out what assigning 1p, 2p and 2.5p in each pound of basic rate income tax would mean in revenue terms 🧵

What might Burnham's fiscal devo mean for current strategic authorities? We worked out what assigning 1p, 2p and 2.5p in each pound of basic rate income tax would mean in revenue terms 🧵

New from me: Until recently, the gap between comfortably-off and just-getting-started could plausibly be crossed in a decade or two of hard work. Growth in asset prices means that’s no longer true: even a lifetime of striving doesn’t offer a realistic prospect of feeling you’ve “made it”.

Well, the government has a seven page memo on devolution and England and... there is a lot in there! Will add some thoughts, but the most striking thing is the pace. A lot of the serious reforms are due to come in April 2028 - this is not a gradual roadmap! www.gov.uk/government/p...

Rewiring the State – Cabinet Statement

This publication sets out this government's plan to fundamentally rewire the state by shifting power, funding and accountability from Whitehall to local leaders

gov.uk

Pleased to be quoted in this FT piece by @jenwilliamsft.bsky.social & @chris-smyth.bsky.social. In short, some real opportunities devolving skills & employment support particularly when tied to income tax change which could help share benefits of success. But some risks around 14-19 education.

Learning and Work Institute@learnworkuk.bsky.social · 6d ago

In @financialtimes.com, L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social comments on Burnham's plans to give mayors control over skills budgets for 16 to 19-year-olds alongside more local power over employment support. 📰

New Industrial Strategy Advisory Council report on falls in employer training investment, which we've highlighted before. The ISAC agrees with us that more collective action is needed. But doesn't talk about financial incentives, wider business context, and can lapse into supply side focus at times

The Govt's now updated its Connect to Work business case to reflect the slower than expected start, revise down lifetime starts by 20k, calculate benefits differently (increasing impact assessment). Overall, scheme only gets 20k additional people in work but generates £1.2bn fiscal savings.

30 July 2026: Connect to Work - Programme Business Case 2 Summary

gov.uk

Stephen Evans@stephenevans.bsky.social · 2mo ago

New stats seems to show the Government's Connect to Work programme, to help disabled people into work, has only helped half as many people as it expected in January. Decent results for those on it, but there's not enough on it. I say seems to, as it's so far off maybe I'm wrong. But I can't see how.

New apprenticeship funding plans just out: - Bursary up to £4.5k pa for families that would be worse off on UC if their child does an apprenticeship. - 22k more college places in courses like construction - Reiteration of up to £8k payment to SMEs per apprentice

Government invests in young people with more opportunities close to home

Thousands more young people will be able to gain the skills, qualifications and experience they need for future careers, as the government today rolls out a major package to break down barriers stoppi...

gov.uk

New apprenticeship funding plans just out: - Bursary up to £4.5k pa for families that would be worse off on UC if their child does an apprenticeship. - 22k more college places in courses like construction - Reiteration of up to £8k payment to SMEs per apprentice

Government invests in young people with more opportunities close to home

Thousands more young people will be able to gain the skills, qualifications and experience they need for future careers, as the government today rolls out a major package to break down barriers stoppi...

gov.uk

"If you don't get that work experience alongside studying, and then you struggle to get into the labour market, the risk is you're locked out of the workforce for more and more years." In @telegraph.co.uk, L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social comments on youth unemployment numbers. 🗞️

Today, almost all new electricity is coming from clean energy Once clean-energy growth consistently exceeds demand, fossil-fuel power will start to decline Source: IEA

Great to be cited in the Work and Pensions Committee report on youth employment, education and training today. 📑 The report includes L&W input on the need for greater support for young people outside Youth Guarantee Trailblazer areas and L&W research on the complexity of our apprenticeship system.

Out of interest, here's LFS (data quality caveat) estimates of quarterly changes in public and private sector employment over the last two years. Private sector falls driven by e.g. retail & hospitality. Employment rate overall broadly flat, propped up by health & social care growth.

Feels like welfare spend is likely to be ongoing debate so I'll add to what others have said. Working age welfare as % of GDP isn't spiking up, but drifted up a bit 1980s-2010. But (caveats re definition changes over time) how we spend it has changed: we may be achieving less with the same £. Go us!

Feels like welfare spend is likely to be ongoing debate so I'll add to what others have said. Working age welfare as % of GDP isn't spiking up, but drifted up a bit 1980s-2010. But (caveats re definition changes over time) how we spend it has changed: we may be achieving less with the same £. Go us!

Relatively flat labour market stats today, with wider surveys like REC's indicating stabilisation / modest improvement ahead. But bigger picture for our new PM is another 2.1m people needed in work to hit 80% emp rate target, 1m young people NEET, and pay £260 per week below financial crisis trends.

In the spirit of finding a local angle to everything. Congratulations to Andy Burnham on becoming PM. To my knowledge, the first speaker at our Employment and Skills Convention to do so.

"The data highlight the twin challenges Andy Burnham faces as he takes office." ✍️ L&W chief exec @stephenevans.bsky.social responds to today's labour market statistics from ONS.

Labour market stats response, July 2026 - Learning and Work Institute

L&W's chief executive Stephen Evans responds to the latest labour market data from ONS.

learningandwork.org.uk

In the spirit of finding a local angle to everything. Congratulations to Andy Burnham on becoming PM. To my knowledge, the first speaker at our Employment and Skills Convention to do so.

We're on track for c10% fewer adults gaining English & maths quals in England this year. Largely due to Govt removing it from apprenticeships for those 19+. Longer term, numbers have halved since 2013-14. A problem given 9m adults have low literacy or numeracy & these skills matter for so much.

Is Manchester really outperforming the rest of the UK? New research from @andywestwood.bsky.social , @jpspencer.bsky.social & @joepeck.co.uk finds that while some productivity data is contested, Manchester's investment, skills and business growth all point to a strong economic story. bit.ly/44xYxrv

Is Greater Manchester growing significantly? If so, why? And what can we learn? - The Productivity Institute

Has Greater Manchester become one of the UK's strongest-performing city regions? This paper investigates the evidence behind the "Manchester Model", examining growth, productivity, investment and gove...

productivity.ac.uk

New post: **On “What’s really going on with mental health?” in the FT** ...following-up @jburnmurdoch.ft.com piece about our research over the weekend, based on research with @chrishenking.bsky.social inequalities.substack.com/p/on-whats-r...

Well this is fascinating giftarticle.ft.com/giftarticle/... From @jburnmurdoch.ft.com

Good day in Leicester for our quarterly Board meeting. And I got a footnote on the Jevons paradox in the paper and didn’t get sacked - result!