The Downballot

@the-downballot.com

The premier source of information for the thousands of elections below the presidency, from Senate to city council. Our site: http://the-downballot.com/

Lots more in a packed Digest that covers: • Tuesday's big elections results, including key primaries that have yet to be resolved • The latest in redistricting battles in Maryland and Missouri • A scandal-ridden Republican ending his reelection campaign in North Carolina • And much, much, more.

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 2h ago

Republican Rep. Max Miller refuses to drop out as his scandal worsens, with the House Ethics Committee now investigating him over accusations of “domestic violence and abuse or illegal drug use.”

Embattled Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards is ending his reelection campaign for North Carolina's 11th District, he announced on X at 3:32 AM ET. GOP will pick a new nominee to take on farmer Jamie Ager, a Democrat who has run a strong campaign to flip a western North Carolina seat Trump won 54-45.

Rep. Chuck Edwards drops re-election bid after censure recommendation over harassment claims

“After much prayer and reflection, I’ve decided to withdraw from my re-election campaign,” Edwards, R-N.C., said early Wednesday after mounting pressure over his conduct toward two female staffers.

nbcnews.com

Oh, and this isn't some random Republican primary in a D+99 district. This is a super-swingy seat where the top GOP super PAC previously booked $2.5 million in TV time to try to flip it.

The Downballot@the-downballot.com · 11h ago

Seems like an upset might be brewing in the GOP primary in #MI08 to take on Dem Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet. Trump endorsed Amir Hassan, but he currently trails an absolute nobody who suspended his campaign a month ago by a wide margin.

#MI07 candidate Bridget Brink congratulates William Lawrence on winning Dem primary: "Now we come together as one to take on Tom Barrett and work to elect a leader who will listen and fight for what matters most to our community here in mid-Michigan."

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Seems like an upset might be brewing in the GOP primary in #MI08 to take on Dem Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet. Trump endorsed Amir Hassan, but he currently trails an absolute nobody who suspended his campaign a month ago by a wide margin.

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Climate activist William Lawrence, an outspoken progressive, has won the Dem nod for swingy #MI07, held by GOP Rep. Tom Barrett. Lawrence was aided by the fact that two more moderate candidates appeared to split the vote.

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AP calls #MIGov GOP primary for John James, but despite having Trump's endorsement, it's not a dominant performance. Trump spent much of the race complaining that James wasn't seeking reelection to his swingy House seat! He'll now face Dem SoS Jocelyn Benson in the race to replace Gretchen Whitmer.

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Quite an upset in the #KSGov Dem primary. State Sen. Cindy Holscher, who came out against data centers and the Kansas City Chiefs stadium deal, has defeated state Sen. Ethan Corson, who had a big financial edge and an endorsement from term-limited Gov. Laura Kelly.

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A group called the 1861 Initiative spent more than $2.2 million to help Army vet Noah Taylor win the Dem nod for #KSSen. The race was already called for pastor Adam Hamilton, and Taylor is currently in third.

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Two more GOP amendments go down to crushing defeats, both in MO. #4 would have made future ballot initiatives impossible to pass by requiring winning a majority statewide *and* in each congressional district. #5 would have eliminated the state income tax.

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AP calls a DEFEAT for Kansas Amendment 1, which would have replaced the current merit-based selection of state Supreme Court justices with partisan statewide elections. GOP wanted this change to try to overturn a ruling protecting abortion rights, but voters emphatically said no.

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Ty Masterson, the Trump-endorsed state Senate president, wins the GOP primary in the race to replace term-limited #KSGov Laura Kelly. Dem primary is very close—might be a while before there's a call.

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Five states have no race for either U.S. Senate or governor this year. Two of them have primaries tonight: Missouri and Washington. (The other three: Indiana, North Dakota, and Utah.)

Okay then! Polls are now closed in (most of) Michigan, (most of) Kansas, and all of Missouri. In addition to primaries, there are major constitutional amendments on the docket in both KS (to select Supreme Court justices via partisan elections) and MO (to make future initiatives all but impossible).

The AP calls the #VA01 Dem primary for prosecutor Shannon Taylor, who was the DCCC's preferred pick to take on GOP Rep. Rob Wittman. This district went 52-47 for Trump, but it was the very rare district that moved left in 2024 vs. 2020.

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NEW: Maryland Democrats just passed a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 in response to Republican gerrymanders elsewhere. If voters pass it in November, Democrats could enact a map like this earlier proposal to target the lone Republican, Andy Harris

Graphic of a proposed 8-0 Democratic Maryland congressional map passed by state House Democrats as House Bill 488.

The districts are colored various shades of blue depending on the size of Kamala Harris' 2024 presidential margin of victory, with darker colors representing bigger margins. An accompanying chart includes the presidential results and each district's racial demographics for the adult population.

All seven Democratic incumbents would be in districts that Harris won by at least 10.7 points, with 3rd District Democratic Rep. Sarah Elfreth likely running in the revised 1st District currently held by Republican Rep. Andy Harris. The potentially open 3rd District favored Harris by 8.6 points. The 4th and 7th districts would remain majority-Black while the open 5th District would shift from plurality-white to plurality-Black.
Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 6d ago

Maryland Democrats have unveiled their constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 if voters approve it in November. It would insulate congressional maps from legal challenges and specify that existing restrictions on maps only apply to state Senate/House maps

Three ways Republican SoS Denny Hoskins might go: 1) Certify referendum - very unlikely 2) Rule signatures insufficient - unlikely 3) Rule that congressional maps cannot be targeted by veto referenda - most likely #3 is based on the discredited "independent state legislature" theory.

The Redistrict Network (mirror 🤖)@redistrictnet.bluesky.bot · 23h ago

#NationalNews: The Missouri Secretary of State will hold a major press conference on Missouri's congressional map and the Missouri Redistricting Referendum today at 4 p.m. CT. Members of the public can watch here: www.sos.mo.gov/default…

Some New Jersey Democrats still don’t get what’s at stake with Trump and Republicans pushing extreme gerrymanders on the whole country. Unilaterally disarming won’t save democracy when gerrymandering requires a national solution

“New Jersey wins elections the old-fashioned way: We earn it,” said Democratic state Sen. Andrew Zwicker, showing his age by doing his best impression of actor John Houseman in 1980s ads for Smith Barney.
And Rutgers Law School professor Ronald Chen, who’s been involved in congressional and state legislative redistricting, said he doesn’t think gerrymandering is a good way to advance his own progressive politics. Chen was counsel to redistricting tiebreaker John Farmer Jr. in 2011, when Farmer chose a Republican-drawn map that put two Democratic incumbents together and led to the 2012 election of an evenly split House delegation. Six years later, under that same map, the delegation went 11-1 in Democrats’ favor.
“It just goes to show with a little bit of patience, things will work out,” Chen said. “Once you change it, the temptation will be to tinker again. And then, eventually, even in New Jersey, the other party will get into control of the Legislature and all bets are off.”