What is truly "shocking" about the polling miss in Michigan is that it is completely average for a primary "The expected error on the margin between two primary candidates in a race for governor or U.S. Senate is a whopping 13.0 points." blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/2026-texas...

Do we really know who's leading the Texas Senate races?

Primary polls have historically been rather unreliable, and a surge in new primary voters means turnout assumptions matter more than usual

blog.fiftyplusone.news

|horses|@chemotaxis.bsky.social · 6h ago

Polling is like really fucked. Strikes me as a huge problem honestly.

Kansas is the only red state where Democratic appointees are a majority on the state Supreme Court, and it will stay that way for years to come after voters rejected this GOP power grab in a landslide. Kansas voters have repeatedly rejected Republican attempts to ban abortion since the Dobbs ruling

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 15h ago

NEW: Voters have rejected Republicans' scheme to unseat the Kansas Supreme Court's Dem-appointed majority and overturn abortion rights. Amendment 1 would have let the GOP replace the system of a nominating commission, gubernatorial appointment, and retention elections with direct partisan elections

Missouri Republicans tried to make voter-initiated constitutional amendments impossible by requiring passage in every congressional district instead of just statewide. Voters rejected the amendment in not just every congressional district but every county too. Trump won all but four counties there

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 15h ago

NEW: Missouri voters have rejected Amendment 4, which Republicans had passed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments effectively impossible. It would have required initiatives to pass in every congressional district—not just statewide—giving the overwhelmingly red districts a veto

Missouri Republicans' Amendment 4 is getting trounced not just in every congressional district but in every *county* so far. Trump won all but four counties in Missouri.

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 15h ago

NEW: Missouri voters have rejected Amendment 4, which Republicans had passed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments effectively impossible. It would have required initiatives to pass in every congressional district—not just statewide—giving the overwhelmingly red districts a veto

NEW: Missouri voters have rejected Amendment 4, which Republicans had passed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments effectively impossible. It would have required initiatives to pass in every congressional district—not just statewide—giving the overwhelmingly red districts a veto

NEW: Voters have rejected Republicans' scheme to unseat the Kansas Supreme Court's Dem-appointed majority and overturn abortion rights. Amendment 1 would have let the GOP replace the system of a nominating commission, gubernatorial appointment, and retention elections with direct partisan elections

Republican power grabs in Kansas and Missouri are going down in flames with 18-25% of votes reported so far. Missouri's Amendment 4 aimed to make citizen-initiated constitutional amendments practically impossible. Kansas' Amendment 1 was designed to flip the state Supreme Court to ban abortion

Good to see Democrats being strategic by withdrawing and supporting independents running for Senate in three deep red states where a Democrat couldn’t win. Utah in 2022 and Nebraska in 2024 saw independents massively overperform the Democratic ticket, and Nebraska is a very real possibility in 2026

Democrat exits Senate race in South Dakota, clearing way for independent

Julian Beaudion withdrew after resisting pressure to step aside, making South Dakota’s contest the third Senate race without a Democratic candidate.

wapo.st

Dems could redraw these House maps for 2028: MD: On 2026 ballot. NY: Passed part 1 of multi-year plan. VA: Could reverse 2026 court ruling. IL: Considering. NJ: Reportedly unlikely. MN, OR, WI: May depend on 2026 elections. A court could redraw WI instead www.the-downballot.com/p/how-democr...

NEW: Maryland Democrats just passed a constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 in response to Republican gerrymanders elsewhere. If voters pass it in November, Democrats could enact a map like this earlier proposal to target the lone Republican, Andy Harris

Stephen Wolf@stephenwolf.bsky.social · 6d ago

Maryland Democrats have unveiled their constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 if voters approve it in November. It would insulate congressional maps from legal challenges and specify that existing restrictions on maps only apply to state Senate/House maps

This is nonsense. Missouri voters have vetoed a congressional map before, and the U.S. Supreme Court has upheld voter-led initiatives for congressional redistricting. Hoskins lacks the authority to do this, and he has delayed signature verification for several months to try to run out the clock

Nathaniel Rakich@baseballot.bsky.social · 19h ago

Per this article, "Hoskins asserted Tuesday that the petition is unconstitutional because congressional redistricting plans cannot be subject to voter referendums." apnews.com/article/redi...

BIG PLOT TWIST in TX: Tarrant County's GOP officials, faced with intense public outrage about huge cuts to the battleground county's polling locations in November, have decided to delay their final vote on the plan so more polling places can be added

Jen Rice@jenrice.bsky.social · 2d ago

They're probably hoping you won't hear about this. But tomorrow in TX, Tarrant County officials meet to vote on a GOP plan to cut almost HALF of Election Day voting locations, plus 8 early voting locations, some of them on campuses. Not hard to guess why. fortworthreport.org/2026/07/30/t...

New: Missouri Secretary of State Hoskins, who dragged out his certification of a petition challenge to the state's new gerrymander until the very last day, now says the challenge is "insufficient." Not because there aren't enough signatures — there clearly are — but because it's "unconstitutional"

Politico says New Jersey Dems appear disinclined to put a redistricting measure on the ballot in 2027 after missing the 2026 deadline. A new 11-1 map could target two GOP House seats and protect Dem seats, but some Dems seem uninterested because they’re likely to flip one of the two in 2026 anyway

Redistricting won't be on the ballot this year. And probably not next year.

The possibility of voters casting a ballot this year on whether to conduct mid-decade redistricting is dead.

politico.com

Study: Students get more liberal during college, but it has no detectable relationship to the subject they study or the partisanship of their professors. micah-baum.github.io/files/baum-e...

They're probably hoping you won't hear about this. But tomorrow in TX, Tarrant County officials meet to vote on a GOP plan to cut almost HALF of Election Day voting locations, plus 8 early voting locations, some of them on campuses. Not hard to guess why. fortworthreport.org/2026/07/30/t...

Tarrant County considers cutting 140 Election Day polling sites for November

County commissioners vote Aug. 4 on proposed reductions to the number of early voting and day-of sites for the midterms.

fortworthreport.org

Dems strongly favored to take the House in our new election forecast. Senate just better than a tossup: Iowa: 41% Dem Texas: 48 Alaska: 51 Ohio: 53 Maine: 68 Michigan: 69 North Carolina: 84 Georgia: 94 www.gelliottmorris.com/p/democrats-...

Democrats strongly favored to take the House, Senate tilts Democratic in our new election forecast (crosspost)

Our brand-new election forecast for the 2026 congressional midterms puts Democrats at above even odds to take control of both chambers

gelliottmorris.com

"“We need to revisit the point of expanding the court to 13 justices like we have 13 district courts,” Harris said at the National Urban League’s annual conference...also calling for a review of the Electoral College and statehood for Puerto Rico and Washington, DC." www.cnn.com/2026/07/31/p...

Kamala Harris says the US Supreme Court should expand to 13 justices | CNN Politics

Former Vice President Kamala Harris said Friday that the United States should consider expanding the Supreme Court to be made up of 13 justices, a popular idea among Democrats who have increasingly pu...

cnn.com

“We should return to an older and more accurate name for the Civil War: the Slaveholders’ Rebellion. If a country unquestioningly adopts language that obscures its bloodiest crimes to absolve their worst perpetrators, how can we expect successive generations to remember the new assaults on democracy

Opinion | The ‘Civil War’ Is a Lie. Let’s Call It the ‘Slaveholders’ Rebellion’ Again. (Gift Article)

To face our own history, we must be honest about it.

nytimes.com

Today, Chris Taylor is sworn in to replace Rebecca Bradley on the Wisconsin Supreme Court, giving liberals a 5-2 majority. As recently as 2020, conservatives had a 5-2 edge on the court, but four straight double-digit victories for liberals shifted the balance—and the court could go 6-1 next year.

New primary data @fiftyplusone.news confirms a pattern political scientists have flagged for years: Women with endorsements are winning primaries at high rates in both parties, but the opportunity structure around them is wildly unequal🧵 (full story here open.substack.com/pub/fiftyplu...)

We tracked every candidate in the 2026 primaries. Here's who voters are nominating.

Our original dataset tracks endorsements across every congressional and gubernatorial race to reveal how party leaders and ideological groups are faring.

open.substack.com

#NEW: Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray won't seek another term as Indiana Senate leader. The decision comes after his opposition to Trump's congressional redistricting push triggered primary defeats for six GOP incumbents. indianacapitalchronicl…

Bray won’t seek another term as Indiana Senate leader after redistricting fallout • Indiana Capital...

Senate President Pro Tem Rodric Bray announced Friday that he will give up the chamber’s top leadership position.

indianacapitalchronicle.com

Abigail Spanberger announced she is restoring the voting rights of about 66,000 people with past felony convictions, reversing the course set by Glenn Youngkin. New in @boltsmag.org: boltsmag.org/virginia-gov...

Virginia Governor Restores Voting Rights for Thousands With Past Felony Convictions - Bolts

This is the only state that, absent action by the governor, bans people convicted of any felony from voting for life. Virginians have an opportunity to end that system for good in November.

boltsmag.org

Big primary data drop today w/@fiftyplusone.news ! Which political endorsements are working in 2026? Our new story examines how Democratic and Republican organizations are faring. OG 538 folks will know it! TY to @gelliottmorris.com and 50+1 for helping us keep the "PRIMARY PROJECT" alive!

FiftyPlusOne.news@fiftyplusone.news · 5d ago

50+1 is very happy to publish this analysis of 2026 primary candidates from @meredithconroy.bsky.social @tsyang27.bsky.social & Cooper Burton, following the tradition of similar projects from FiveThirtyEight. What types of candidates are winning 2026 primaries? blog.fiftyplusone.news/p/primary-pr...

Second, "change"/"something new" isn't always something Americans are conceiving of along strict ideological lines. See this question about what dissatisfied Dems say would change their party for the better -- ideological considerations rank last, and some chose both "move left" and "move center."

SHOOT IT INTO MY VEINS

Henry Farrell@himself.bsky.social · 5d ago

I remember seeing someone (very reasonably) complaining here a few days ago that there seems to be next to no visible thinking on left and center about how to join the dots on administration and democracy. This is the beginnings of an answer to that complaint donmoynihan.substack.com/p/rebuilding...

I remember seeing someone (very reasonably) complaining here a few days ago that there seems to be next to no visible thinking on left and center about how to join the dots on administration and democracy. This is the beginnings of an answer to that complaint donmoynihan.substack.com/p/rebuilding...

Rebuilding Democracy Requires Rebalancing Power

What does a power-shifting agenda look like?

donmoynihan.substack.com

Republicans have passed a bill that gives the GOP justices the power to remove Justice Anita Earls and any other judge they don’t like. Right now, a commission decides if a judge violated ethics rules. The new law allows the high court to override its decision. ncnewsline.com/2026/07/29/n... #ncpol

NC Senate approves judicial oversight measure despite warnings of politicization • NC Newsline

The final version of H377 gives the state Supreme Court the power to censure, publicly reprimand, suspend or remove judges at its discretion.

ncnewsline.com

Maryland Democrats have unveiled their constitutional amendment that would let them redraw the congressional map for 2028 if voters approve it in November. It would insulate congressional maps from legal challenges and specify that existing restrictions on maps only apply to state Senate/House maps

Maryland lawmakers reveal proposed redistricting constitutional amendment, special session plan

The proposed changes to the Maryland Constitution around congressional redistricting have been published.

wypr.org

“Trump has rejected disaster aid for Democratic-run states at the highest rate in the 47-year history of the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” Right now people in blue states are basically paying federal taxes as if they’re colonized territories of red states. www.politico.com/news/2026/03...