📊 VIC state government formation chances since the 2022 election – per our model. Coalition leads today with 77.1% chance of forming government, with a minority supported by One Nation most likely. Full model and assumptions on the site: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

The Swing Is On is an Australian election modelling platform – with features including our live poll tracker, seat models, custom predictions, and more. 📊 Explore it for yourself at theswingison.com.

The Swing Is On – Australian Election Modelling

Interactive tools for Australian election modelling – tracking polls, modelling preferences, simulating seat outcomes, and building voter profiles.

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Here’s the 10 VIC state seats our model shows as closest based on current polls – all won by Labor at the 2022 state election. With One Nation polling at similar levels to the two traditional major parties – Labor and the Coalition – there’s set to be many more three (or more) cornered contests.

From 5,000 simulations of today’s polling aggregate, our model gives these averages for the Victorian state election: 🔵 Coalition: 38.5 seats 🔴 Labor: 28.6 seats 🟠 One Nation: 14.4 seats 🟢 Greens: 5.8 seats ⚪️ Other: 0.5 seats We’ll post the probability breakdown by upper house region in this 🧵

🟢 The Greens have an outside chance or better in 8 seats on today’s polling for the VIC state election: Very likely: Brunswick, Richmond, Melbourne (3) Favoured: Northcote, Prahran (2) Outside chance: Footscray, Pascoe Vale, Albert Park (3) Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

🔴 The Labor frontbench could be decimated at the Victorian state election in November. New premier Ben Carroll has the worst chances – with Labor having just a 34.3% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie. More at: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

Our model predicts Victorian premier Ben Carroll has a 66.8% chance of losing his seat at the state election, if held today. ➡️ theswingison.com/track-polls/... #auspol #springst #elections #polling

Poll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is On

Victorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average.

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Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 89.0% chance of retaining government – if the next New South Wales state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

Based on opinion polls, our model predicts the Coalition has a 77.5% chance of winning government off Labor – if the next Victorian state election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls/...

Based on opinion polls, our model predicts Labor has a 73.1% chance of retaining government – if the next Australian federal election were held today. 👇 Check out the model and the latest polls for yourself: theswingison.com/track-polls

NEW FEATURE: Build your hypothetical upper and lower house results for the next federal and state elections – and share your prediction! 👉 Check it out on our website: theswingison.com/create-predi...

With One Nation on the rise, there’s more competitive seats than ever in Victoria this November. Here’s where our model shows the closest seats and regions to keep an eye out for on election night. By Lawrence De Pellegrin: theswingison.com/analysis/vic...

The seats to watch in Victoria this November

With One Nation on the rise, there's more competitive seats than ever in Victoria. Here's where the model expects the tightest contests on election night.

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With One Nation on the rise, there’s more competitive seats than ever in Victoria this November. Here’s where our model shows the closest seats and regions to keep an eye out for on election night. By Lawrence De Pellegrin: theswingison.com/analysis/vic...

The seats to watch in Victoria this November

With One Nation on the rise, there's more competitive seats than ever in Victoria. Here's where the model expects the tightest contests on election night.

theswingison.com

New Vic premier Ben Carroll is on track to LOSE his seat at the November state election. Our model gives him just a 30.6% chance of retaining his seat of Niddrie – if the election were today. The Coalition has a 50.8% chance of flipping his seat, with PHON an outside chance.

The Swing Is On’s VIC state seats update: 🔵 Coalition: 41 (+13) 🔴 Labor: 31 (-25) 🟠 One Nation: 11 (+11) 🟢 Greens: 5 (+1) ⚪️ Other: 0 (=) Based on live polling aggregate (not a poll). +/- 2022 state election. Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls/vic26

Poll tracker – VIC 2026 state election – The Swing Is On

Victorian state primary vote polling since the 2022 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average.

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The Swing Is On’s federal seats update: 🔴 Labor: 74 (-20) 🟠 One Nation: 37 (+37) 🔵 Coalition: 28 (-15) 🟢 Greens: 3 (+2) ⚪️ Other: 8 (-4) Based on live polling aggregate (not a poll). +/- 2025 federal election. Full model: theswingison.com/track-polls

Poll tracker – Federal 2027/28 election – The Swing Is On

Australian federal primary vote polling since the 2025 election, with a 28-day rolling poll average.

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Also did we mention that our NSW, QLD, SA and WA models are now live at theswingison.com? 😏

The Swing Is On – Australian Election Modelling

Interactive tools for Australian election modelling – tracking polls, modelling preferences, simulating seat outcomes, and building voter profiles.

theswingison.com

The Swing Is On@theswingison.com · 3mo ago

🗳️ NSW state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 30.7% (53 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 24.8% (8 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 22.8% (22 seats) 🟢 Greens: 11.5% (3 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.7% (7 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

🗳️ NSW state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 30.7% (53 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 24.8% (8 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 22.8% (22 seats) 🟢 Greens: 11.5% (3 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.7% (7 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

🗳️ VIC state polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔵 Coalition: 28.5% (43 seats) 🔴 Labor: 25.5% (37 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 22.3% (3 seats) 🟢 Greens: 13.2% (5 seats) ⚪ Other: 10.5% (0 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

🗳️ AUS federal polling & seat nowcast 🗳️ 🔴 Labor: 29.0% (82 seats) 🔵 Coalition: 21.2% (21 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 27.2% (40 seats) 🟢 Greens: 12.8% (2 seats) ⚪ Other: 9.8% (5 seats) Based on The Swing Is On's live poll aggregate – no polls our own. #auspol #elections #polling

A handful of followers have asked: how is One Nation polling at 22.2% in VIC, but our model only gives them 3 seats?! It's a fair question – and the answer shows the volatility of single-member seats in Australian preferential voting. Read the analysis here → theswingison.com/analysis/one...

Our updated Victorian state poll aggregate after recent Newspoll, Redbridge and Freshwater additions: 🔵 Coalition: 29.8% (47 seats) 🔴 Labor: 25.4% (33 seats) 🟠 One Nation: 21.6% (3 seats) 🟢 Greens: 13.5% (5 seats) ⚪️ Other: 9.7% (0 seats) The Coalition on track for a slim majority.

Our model predicts a minority 🔵 Coalition govt if the next VIC state election were held today. Do you think the 🔵 Coalition would form a govt with 🟠 One Nation to oust the Allan Labor govt ? Check out latest polls and simulate the next election at theswingison.com. #auspol #vicpol #elections

Our model predicts a narrow 4-seat 🔴 Labor majority if the next Australian federal election were held today. Check out the latest polls and simulate the next election for yourself at theswingison.com. #auspol #polling #elections

More #auspol Lower House seats are now 3-cornered contests or a fight between 2nd and 3rd at the final elimination count. So we’ve introduced an updated “close seats” logic in our election visualisations: ⚖️ Close final pair only 📐 3-cornered contests 🥊 In-bloc contests

Interesting very detailed model (access forecasts via "Model a Poll" tab) - suggests that on current polling Labor would lose lower house Vic state seats mainly to ON and especially in W Metro and SE Metro LegCo areas.

The Swing Is On@theswingison.com · 4mo ago

Here's our modelled seat count for the next Victorian state election since 2022 based on poll averages. The VIC Coalition is polling +8pp vs the fed Coalition nationally – so just 7 seats off a majority on current numbers: 🔵 Coalition 38 🔴 Labor 25 🟠 One Nation 20 🟢 Greens 5

Here's our modelled seat count for the next Victorian state election since 2022 based on poll averages. The VIC Coalition is polling +8pp vs the fed Coalition nationally – so just 7 seats off a majority on current numbers: 🔵 Coalition 38 🔴 Labor 25 🟠 One Nation 20 🟢 Greens 5

Our VIC 2026 state election models are HERE! 🎉 Explore our poll tracker, 88-seat model and preferences simulator for yourself → theswingison.com #auspol #vicpol

Track a Poll aggregate update: One Nation leads nationally at 29.6%, ahead of Labor (27.4%) and the Coalition (18.9%). We project 59 seats changing hands – One Nation wins 55, the Coalition collapses to 9, and Labor falls to 70. 🔗Full analysis: theswingison.com/analysis/tracker-update-27-june-2026

🔴 Labor on track for minority at next election for 1st time this term. The Swing Is On’s election model on today’s polling aggregate would result in: 🔴 Labor 70 🟠 One Nation 51 🔵 Coalition 13 🟢 Greens 5 ⚪️ Other, Left-leaning 8 ⚪️ Other, Right-leaning 3 #auspol