Texas National Security Review

@tnsr.org

A rigorous, policy-relevant journal on national & international security, brought to you by The University of Texas System | tnsr.org

How do global conflicts reshape Beijing’s cross-strait strategy? Mike Kuiken explains how the PLA is analyzing military quagmires in Ukraine and Iran. He argues that these insights are prompting Chinese planners to comprehensively refresh their approach to a 2027 Taiwan scenario.

The UAE signed an agreement to fly a lunar rover on China's Chang'e 7 this August. Then US ITAR restrictions forced it to withdraw. Hines, Rubin & Alagirova argue that moment captures something larger: American export controls are closing doors that China is walking through.

"Restrictive US policies that constrain exports of technology raise barriers to international collaboration and risk diminishing American influence, while allowing the PRC to position itself as the more accessible and cooperative partner in the global space arena." from "Choosing Orbits: China’s Space Diplomacy in the Middle East" by R. Lincoln Hines, Lawrence Rubin, Dayana Alagirova

China's Chang'e 7 mission launches this August, targeting the lunar south pole and carrying payloads from six international partners. Egypt is one of them. In our new issue, Hines, Rubin & Alagirova map China's expanding space diplomacy across the Middle East and find a deliberate strategy.

Scholar | "Choosing Orbits: China’s Space Diplomacy in the Middle East" by R. Lincoln Hines, Lawrence Rubin, and Dayana Alagirova

Has degrading Iran's nuclear program actually made the region less safe? @ebrewer.bsky.social argues that previous restraint—like avoiding attacks on the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf energy targets—was driven by fear of retaliatory strikes. Now that those strikes have occurred, Iran has less to fear.

With the US and Iran negotiating a roadmap to end the recent war, Tehran’s nuclear program is once again at the forefront of global security. What role does nuclear latency play in regional stability?

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What are the strategic trade-offs of nuclear hedging? @ebrewer.bsky.social examines Iran’s nuclear program from 2023–25 and argues that instead of providing a net advantage, Iran’s threshold status became a critical vulnerability that invited conventional attacks and degraded its security.

Strategist | "What Good Is a Nuclear Threshold Capability? Lessons from Iran’s Nuclear Program and Recent Regional Conflict" by Eric Brewer

In our new podcast episode, Herb Lin argues that unproven military tech lets policymakers gloss over operational flaws. It offers a convenient narrative to promise casualty reduction and simulate responsive action in unfavorable scenarios.

Why are policymakers consistently drawn to the promise of revolutionary military tech despite repeated acquisition failures? Herb Lin reveals the persistent traps of technological overmatch, from "fallacy of the last move" thinking to the distinct architectural nature of AI.

"New Tech, Old Traps: The Persistent Pitfalls in Military Innovations" with Herbert S. Lin

Geography is about more than just resources or strategic chokepoints. In our upcoming issue, Francis J. Gavin, the chair of our editorial board, argues that place fundamentally shapes identity and political realities.

"The meaning of geography, or place, goes well beyond its traditional economic or strategic dimensions. People care deeply about where they are from and how that shapes who they are and what is most important to them." from "The Meaning of Place" by Francis J. Gavin

In the opening essay to our upcoming issue, Francis J. Gavin argues that modern geopolitics has expanded into the planetary commons, cyber, and space. Yet, traditional physical geography and a deep sense of place still fundamentally shape international conflict.

Foundation | "The Meaning of Place" by Francis J. Gavin

Following recent talks in Beijing, "strategic stability" is the formulation of the moment in US-China relations. But how does this diplomatic shorthand map onto reality? In our latest issue, authors argue that achieving true strategic stability is harder today than ever.

Strategic Stability | "These essays . . . point out why the search for strategic stability in an era of geopolitical and technological change may, ultimately, prove more elusive than hoped." by Sheena Chestnut Greitens, TNSR Editor-in-Chief

These days, most of my reading takes place digitally, but it’s always a great feeling to hold in your hands a physical copy of something you contributed to. Thank you to @tnsr.org for publishing Herb Lin and my co-edited round table on emerging technologies and strategic stability.

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