Why did China tolerate North Korea’s nuclearization? How did the US stop South Korea from developing nuclear weapons—and could it do so again? Our book, Nuclear Alliance Restraint, examines why great powers succeed or fail in preventing their allies from going nuclear. tinyurl.com/mtv6yw2h

Nuclear Alliance Restraint: Success and Failure in Countering Allied Proliferators

This book examines why powerful states have varying success in restraining less-powerful allies from acquiring nuclear weapons, based on a broad range of historical case studies. The outcomes of nucle...

routledge.com

The limitations of what military power can achieve seem even clearer in relation to the Vatican.

**Postdoc positions** Kyoto University has opened up applications for the Hakubi Project, due May 17, 2026. This is a cream of the crop postdoc ("all fields, from basic to applied"), 5 (FIVE!) years, great research budget. Please apply or let others know! www.hakubi.kyoto-u.ac.jp/en/recruitme...

Professor @tongfi-kim.bsky.social moderated a panel of young professionals on 11 March. Speakers from the @ec.europa.eu, the EEAS, the NATO Parliamentary Assembly, and the European Parliament traineeship programme shared insights into career opportunities within European institutions. #BSoG

I don't think the president started a war just to distract the public away from Epstein. If that is the motivation, why would they name it Operation Ep******? On a more serious note, the war is a good demonstration that you don't need a formal alliance to entrap another state.

Indonesia-Australia Consultation pact signed on 6 February 2026. www.dfat.gov.au/countries/in...

"This Theory Explains Trump’s Baffling Foreign Policy" I wonder how neoroyalism works with things like democracy and constitutions. www.nytimes.com/2026/01/26/o...

Opinion | This Theory Explains Trump’s Baffling Foreign Policy

nytimes.com

Not sure if 85B USD can be spent in a year, but the 5th largest military spending in the world in 2024 or 2025 would be around that amount. www.npr.org/2026/01/21/n...

How ICE grew to be the highest-funded U.S. law enforcement agency

ICE's budget hovered around $10 billion for years. But President Trump and the Republican-controlled Congress are taking the agency's funding to unprecedented levels.

npr.org

Today’s newsletter is about a natural experiment that happened on Bluesky yesterday. danieldrezner.substack.com/p/on-trump-a...

On Trump, Anarchy, and a Natural Experiment

My latest co-authored essay for Foreign Affairs.

danieldrezner.substack.com

In our first CSDS Policy Brief of 2026, Carolin Liss and Tongfi Kim look at the consequences of the US' operation in Venezuela for American alliances and China's own strategic calculations in the Indo-Pacific. A must-read! Read csds.vub.be/publication/... @tongfi-kim.bsky.social

From 2016. "You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate Relations "https://www.belfercenter.org/publication/you-cant-always-get-what-you-want-why-foreign-imposed-regime-change-seldom-improves

You Can't Always Get What You Want: Why Foreign-Imposed Regime Change Seldom Improves Interstate Relations

In recent decades, the United States has attempted to overthrow the regimes of several other countries in the hopes that the new regimes will be friendly toward Washington. Does foreign-imposed regime...

belfercenter.org

This CSDS In-Depth Paper presents findings from a CSDS tabletop exercise conducted in November 2025, examining European decision-making during a simulated Taiwan Strait crisis compounded by Russian coercion in Europe. Give it a read! Read csds.vub.be/publication/...

A senior official in the Japanese government commented that Japan should possess nuclear weapons. It seems like a good time to post again my co-authored open access article with @doyoung-lee.bsky.social . www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10..... Curious about the domestic and international reactions.

Continuity and changes: the effects of Russia’s war against Ukraine on Japanese and South Korean nuclear-weapons discourse

This article examines the continuity and changes in Japanese and South Korean discourses on nuclear weapons since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. While Japan experienced s...

tandfonline.com

❗Last Call❗ Join us on Monday, 8 December, for our event "The New Global (Dis)order: Europe, Japan and the Future of Alliances" (14:30-16:30 at the VUB): Speakers: ➡️ Masafumi Ishii ➡️ I-Chung Lai ➡️ Eva Pejsova ➡️ Niklas Swanström Register now! csds.vub.be/event/the-ne...

A recent op-ed I coauthored. www.theparliamentmagazine.eu/news/article...

Op-ed: Why Europe should build ships with Indo-Pacific allies

As Washington deepens industrial ties with Japan, South Korea and Australia, Europe risks being left out unless it partners with its Asian allies.

theparliamentmagazine.eu

Ukrainian sumo wrestler Aonishiki, whose real name is Danylo Yavhusishyn, on Sunday became the first from his nation to win a tournament of the traditional Japanese sport.

Aonishiki becomes first Ukrainian to win sumo tournament

The 21-year-old won the Kyushu tournament after a tie-breaking victory over grand champion Hoshoryu from Mongolia.

ebx.sh

www.nytimes.com/2025/11/17/u... "The number of international college students enrolling in their American schools for the first time decreased by 17 percent this fall"

New International Student Enrollments Plummeted This Fall, Survey Finds

nytimes.com

I didn't know the existence of Faroe Islands until this afternoon, but it was leading against Croatia until a few minutes ago, to qualify for men's football world cup. Where can I watch the game? The island has like 55000 people, and many of the team members are not professional football players.

On situations where Japan can militarily intervene in a Taiwan contingency, Japanese PM Takaichi on November 7 stated that "I believe it could be a case where a crisis situation threatening the nation's existence arises if it involves the use... www.asahi.com/articles/AST...

高市首相、台湾有事「存立危機事態になりうる」　認定なら武力行使も：朝日新聞

高市早苗首相は7日の衆院予算委員会で、台湾有事について、安全保障法制で集団的自衛権を行使できる「存立危機事態」にあたるかを問われ、「戦艦を使って、武力の行使も伴うものであれば、存立危機事態になりうる…

asahi.com

The path to the Nobel Peace prize is through Darfur, not Nigeria.

New publication! In this article, Kristin Grostad examines recent changes in Japan’s security policy, visible in its 2022 Japan National Security Strategy. “All Politics is local”: the U.S.–China balance in the First Island Chain and Japan’s defense transformation doi.org/10.1080/1479...

“All Politics is local”: the U.S.–China balance in the First Island Chain and Japan’s defense transformation

This article examines recent changes in Japan’s security policy, visible in its 2022 Japan National Security Strategy. It finds that the underlying driver for Japan’s military investments is a new ...

doi.org

I just had an email exchange with a high school student headed to @bsog.be next year about my recent article with @luissimonn.bsky.social www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10..... She may have been being nice to her future academic advisor, but I'm still glad to see that open-access publications are

Levels of division: How wedge strategies shape international and domestic politics

States often seek to undermine their competitors in order to obtain a favorable balance of power. Yet, the literature on how they actually do that remains sparse and disconnected. We focus on how a...

tandfonline.com

With Trump approving nuclear-powered (albeit not nuclear-armed) submarines for South Korea, this piece by @doyoung-lee.bsky.social seems even more relevant to policymakers. muse.jhu.edu/article/973856. Great that @tnsr.org is an open-access journal! I'm not sure if the path for ROK nuclear sub is

This CSDS In-Depth Paper by Daniel Fiott analyses the prospects and limits of Europe–South Korea defence industrial cooperation through the frameworks of the EU and NATO, and offers ten targeted policy recommendations to advance it. Read csds.vub.be/publication/...

Who in North Korea are in their epistemic community on nuclear strategy? How did they learn nuclear strategy, and how do they update their thinking on the subject? Could they have academic/scientific exchange with American counterparts?

❗New Event❗ "Responses to a Triple Korean Peninsula-Taiwan-Europe Contingency" 🗓️ 21 October 2025 ❗International Conference Hall, Seoul, ROK ⏰ 15:00-17:00 Register csds.vub.be/event/respon... #SNU #KF

I read President Trump's executive order to guarantee security for Qatar: www.whitehouse.gov/presidential.... It looks significant, but is this an alliance? @bashleyleeds.bsky.social? Maybe I just haven't seen, but it seems to be a unilateral declaration and not signed by Qatar. Alliance agreements

Assuring the Security of the State of Qatar

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, and in recognition of the enduring alliance

whitehouse.gov

"Asked whether Pakistan would be obliged to provide Saudi Arabia with a nuclear umbrella under the pact, the official said: "This is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means."" www.reuters.com/world/asia-p...

It looks like Australia and Papua New Guinea will sign a mutual defense treaty. I'm not familiar with the context, but I want to look at the treaty text at some point. www.pm.gov.au/media/press-...

www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/u... "Within seconds, everyone on the North Korean boat was dead...the crew, which people briefed on the mission said numbered two or three people, had been civilians diving for shellfish. All were dead"

How a Top Secret SEAL Team 6 Mission Into North Korea Fell Apart

nytimes.com