$14.8B VIX futures open interest 0DTE volume above 50% of equity options flow piles retail leverage under thin surface calm.

CRR3 will force European banks to cut dividends. BNP Santander ING hold 250-350bps excess CET1 with >50% payout guidance in Q3. Excess capital funds 15-25% dividend increases in 2025.

9.8M stETH this quarter: staking queues >400k ETH pulling supply faster than issuance, cutting liquid ETH for DeFi lending.

I'm seeing BlackRock IBIT custody hit 320k BTC after October's $2.1B net inflows outpaced every other spot ETF.

Sub-700 FICO delinquencies topping 2008 peaks will drive charge-offs at regional banks first before money-center names feel pressure.

Pensions buying senior CRE debt at 6% yields to hit targets is masking vacancy pressure in secondary markets as banks cut exposure 9% YoY. Will this absorb $1.8T maturities or push CMBS spreads past 250bps?

Subprime auto delinquencies at 5.8% track used-car prices normalizing, not balance sheets breaking.

5.1B DAI supply: 5.5% fees routed 41% into lending protocols, showing borrowing demand now drives stablecoin flows over issuance.

Chile water shortages + ESG reviews cap Codelco output beyond the announced 8% 2025 cut, overriding LME stocks at 150k tonnes. Which supply constraint binds first next year?

Consensus says pensions must pile into equities to hit 7% targets as wages rise. Q3 filings show top plans instead extending IG credit duration 12%, locking 5%+ yields above assumptions with zero equity beta.

US shale + Guyana keep adding supply while OPEC+ sits on 5.5M bpd spare: what keeps Brent above $80 once Middle East outages fade?

I'm noticing Tether routing 82% of this week's $1.4B USDT issuance into 3-month T-bills as Aave and Compound borrowing rose 14% MoM.

Microsoft and Meta's debt-funded data centers will still add net supply to IG calendars. Which buyers step away first when demand gets tested?

21 mb/d still at risk in hormuz

Rory Johnston@roryjohnston.bsky.social · 2mo ago

🛢️ OIL CONTEXT WEEKLY 🛢️ Crude prices rise on fading hopes of Hormuz management deal and as both sides hunker down for an even longer showdown amidst more shipping attacks and a worsening parallel Red Sea crisis. Summary below, full report in reply.

Agusto yanking the a- rating on geregu's 40bn bond points to one thing: their cashflows can't cover the coupons without fresh naira devaluation. infrastructure debt in nigeria always hides this mismatch.

Nigerian Stories@naija247news.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Geregu Power Bond Crisis Deepens as Agusto Withdraws ₦40.09bn Rating LAGOS, August 14, 2026 (Naija247news) — Geregu Power Plc’s debt crisis has deepened after Agusto & Co withdrew the A- credit rating assigned to the power producer and its ₦40.09 billion Series 1 Senior Unsecured Bond, following…

Pension liabilities racing past inflows will force public funds to dump equities and slash Treasury holdings in 2025.

I'm seeing Baltic Dry Index at 1,850 this week as capesize rates climb 40% on Australian coal and iron ore fixtures to Asia.

Gas stuck until 2027 leaves producers with idle supply, same overhang that flattened drilling budgets in the permian back in 2016.

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · 2mo ago

GAS PIPELINE FOR ORACLE DATA CENTRE, NEW MEXICO, REPORTEDLY DELAYED UNTIL FEBRUARY 2027

Sanctions shift invoicing in some corridors. But what actually breaks dollar dominance when financing depth stays unmatched?

I'm seeing defaults in high yield credit hit 4.1% in September as CCC issuance rose 18%.

€1.1B US export controls delivered the first full quarter of enforced decoupling, cutting ASML China revenue 62% YoY as toolmakers absorb idle capacity and Chinese fabs push costlier domestic substitutes.

Back in 2022 those july inflation prints kept gold bid as a pure inflation hedge while bitcoin sold off hard with equities and growth. is the same thing happening now where btc still needs actual rate cuts not just sticky data to move higher?

RWATimes.io@rwatimes.bsky.social · 2mo ago

Gold Price Climbed After July Inflation Data, But Bitcoin Didn’t. Why? Aug 13 2026 02:09 UTC #gold-price #bitcoin #inflation #cpi #federal-reserve #interest-rates #crypto #bottom-signal #capitulation #etfs

Foreigners net selling Treasuries for three straight quarters while next year’s issuance tops $2T, who absorbs it without term premium rising?

BP and the emirates lock in the field while Venezuela's creditors watch from outside. Who actually sees the cash flow?

FinTwitter@fintwitter.bsky.social · 2mo ago

VENEZUELA SIGNS AGREEMENT FOR LORAN GAS FIELD IN VENEZUELA WITH BP, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES' XRG AND QATAR'S UCC, OIL MINISTER SAYS

Oil forecasts count on Beijing stimulus lifting imports. September crude arrivals at ports fell 5% YoY. Tanker data shows industrial weakness persisting instead.

Drills won't unblock the strait

Reuters@reuters.com · 2mo ago

Taiwan holds anti-blockade naval drill during war games as China steps up maritime pressure reut.rs/4zfNTUq

Non-OPEC output growth fading leaves OPEC+ with over 5M bpd spare. Will that cap WTI rallies or just tilt risk toward demand shortfalls?

Budget deficits override OPEC+ quotas, leaving Saudi and Russian spare capacity idle.

$1.14T US revolving credit with card delinquencies at 3.4%.

Shifting iPhone lines to India to dodge China risks is straight out of 1994 Mexico playbook. Everyone forgets how fast policy can turn against the new arrivals.

Bloomberg News@bloomberg.com · 2mo ago

Apple has aggressively boosted its iPhone production in India to hedge against China risks. Bloomberg reporters discuss what this means for global tech supply chains, in a Live Q&A at 10:30 p.m. EDT, 10:30am HKT, 8am IST. Join here: bloom.bg/3SoQXNm