Trump’s tariffs are not an attack on Canada’s economy. They’re an attack on America’s. We should respond accordingly. My latest for @TheHubCanada on Canada’s best response: thehub.ca/2026/07/30/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Doug Ford is wrong: Why doing nothing at all is Canada’s best response to Trump’s tariffs

Everyone assumes Canada must hit back against Trump's tariffs. An economist argues the math says otherwise — retaliation could cost Canadians more than it costs the US.

thehub.ca

There's a lot of variation across #cdnecon in exposure to the new 50% U.S. tariffs (on August 19). Here's a preliminary estimate of the share of exports affected (based on HS6, so a slight over-estimate). BC/ON/QC most exposed. Others far less so.

I appreciate @trevortombe.bsky.social's POV, but... I tend to take a different starting point on some of this - First, he's right that mechanically, the overall (age 15+) participation rate drops when the pop ages. But it's important to point out that within age groups, people are working more

Trevor Tombe@trevortombe.bsky.social · 3w ago

Canada’s population is aging quickly. But that doesn’t have to slow us down. My latest for @TheHubCanada on some cool new research and what it may mean for Canada: thehub.ca/2026/07/16/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Canada’s population is aging quickly. But that doesn’t have to slow us down. My latest for @TheHubCanada on some cool new research and what it may mean for Canada: thehub.ca/2026/07/16/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Population aging doesn’t have to slow us down

thehub.ca

Some argue Canada should abandon equalization altogether, but the better path is to renew the entire system of transfers. My latest for @MLInstitute offers a simple, more transparent, more growth-oriented, and more sustainable option: macdonaldlaurier.ca/rebalancing... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Rebalancing Canada: A two-pillar reform of equalization and federal transfers | Macdonald-Laurier Institute

Some critics argue Canada should abandon equalization or federal transfers altogether, but the better path forward is to renew the system with a simpler structure.

macdonaldlaurier.ca

While oil prices have returned to their pre-war levels, Alberta's fiscal situation remains dramatically improved. Accumulated surpluses since April means lower oil prices are needed to balance. AB is on track for modest surplus. A +$10B improvement.

Roughly, there’s ~$800 billion in taxpayer-funded education sitting outside the province that paid for it. With Alberta and B.C. the largest beneficiaries. My latest for @TheHubCanada on the largest financial transfer nobody talks about: thehub.ca/2026/07/02/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The biggest financial transfer in Canada that nobody talks about

Why Alberta and B.C. are Canada’s biggest brain drain beneficiaries

thehub.ca

The preliminary labour productivity statistics for 2025 are out: www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... PEI leads at 4.9%, with AB and NL next up at 3.8%. National growth was 0.7%. #cdnecon

From this morning's inflation report, Canada's overall rate is up 0.9% compared to start of year. That's half the increase seen in the U.S. Why the difference? I explain in a piece for @TheHubCanada here (from last Thurs): thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Canada's inflation rate rose to 3.2% in May. What's behind the surge? Oil prices. That's it. Most other important components are pulling down the overall rate. #cdnecon 🧵

Why is Canada’s inflation rate so much lower than the U.S.? It’s not because our prices are rising more slowly. My latest for @TheHubCanada explains: thehub.ca/2026/06/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Canada’s inflation situation looks better than America’s—it’s not. Here’s why

Canada's inflation looks better than America's. But strip away the methodology differences and the picture changes entirely. Here's what the numbers actually show.

thehub.ca

ICYMI: Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy. To balance these risks, we've held our policy rate at 2.25%. We are committed to maintaining Canadians’ confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. 👉 https://bit.ly/49ZE0z7

The more freely Canadians can live, work, and do business across the country, the more the value of the federation shows up in ordinary life. My latest on how doubling down on Canada's economic union might help with separatism: thehub.ca/2026/06/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

How to actually fight separatism: Deepen the economic ties between provinces

The case for national unity isn’t about dividing the pie

thehub.ca

The stakes in this referendum are too high to sit it out. We need to build a solid case, not just for staying put, but for a stronger Alberta within a better Canada. That's why I'm joining other prominent conservatives in making the case for Alberta to lead, not leave. www.leadnotleave.ca

Lead. Not Leave.

A policy initiative for Albertans committed to a strong Alberta within a united Canada.

leadnotleave.ca

The status quo is not desirable, but a referendum on separation is even less so. Alberta must lead, not leave. www.readtheline.ca/p/alberta-m... #cdnpoli #ableg

Alberta must lead, not leave

Welcome to Lead Not Leave: a team of academics, policy wonks, political activists and journalists forging a practical path forward for our fellow frustrated federalists.

readtheline.ca

“Opinions among Albertans overall about their province’s treatment in the Canadian federation have been steadily improving” but there has been also been “a steady polarization of opinions.” Check out the latest Confederation of Tomorrow report: environicsinstitute.org/spotlight-o... #cdnpoli

Spotlight on Alberta 2026 | Environics Institute for Survey Research

While Albertans have become less likely to express feelings of “Western alienation,” there has been a steady polarization of opinions in the province.

environicsinstitute.org

For all the noise around Western alienation, separatist petitions, and fed-prov fights, Albertans and other Canadians agree on more than they disagree. My latest with Brooks Decillia for @TheHubCanada with new survey results: thehub.ca/2026/04/30/... #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Albertans and other Canadians are not as divided as it may seem, new survey data shows

Think Albertans and other Canadians are worlds apart? New data suggests the divisions aren't as deep as you think. The results may surprise you.

thehub.ca

My latest on how we need to stop treating the public square like a political science seminar. We need to return to the basics -- three cardinal rules -- if we are to stall the decline of liberal democracy. edmontonjournal.com/opinion/colu...

Opinion: Are the 3 basic rules of democracy being broken in Alberta?

If we stop asking these questions, democracy may further erode to the point that it's too late to do anything about it.

edmontonjournal.com

We’re hiring a Manager for Canada’s Productivity Initiative at @UCaglary! It's a great opportunity to help build a national partnership connecting universities, governments, and policy leaders. If it sounds like a fit, take a look and please share: careers.ucalgary.ca/jobs/176253...

Our governments’ finances face a growth problem, not just a budget problem. My latest for @TheHubCanada on why productivity changes everything: thehub.ca/2026/04/01/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

The fiscal challenge Canada’s provinces don’t want you to talk about

Every single province is now running a deficit

thehub.ca

Oil prices (WTI) ended March just under $102/bbl. Adjusted for inflation, that's the second largest monthly $/bbl increase ever and the third largest % increase. #cdnecon

Alberta's fiscal year ends in two weeks. With oil prices up, the government's deficit forecast of $4.1 billion is now on track for roughly half that. #ableg

What do rising oil prices mean for Canadian households? In my latest for @TheHubCanada, I estimate the costs for gasoline, energy, and (just as importantly!) all other goods and services throughout the supply chain. Overall, about $1,000/yr/household. thehub.ca/2026/03/18/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Have Alberta's finances gone off the rails? My latest for @TheHubCanada on the province's latest budget. thehub.ca/2026/03/03/... #ableg #cdnpoli #cdnecon

Have Alberta’s finances gone off the rails?

thehub.ca

So excited to welcome Doug Irwin (@D_A_Irwin) to Calgary in a few weeks for the 2026 Distinguished Lecture in Economics! It will be a must-hear talk on all the trade policy changes happening today. 🤓 All are welcome! Details here: events.ucalgary.ca/arts/econom... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

THE DR. FRANK ANTON DISTINGUISHED LECTURE IN ECONOMICS - 2026

Is it Possible to Understand Trump’s Trade Policy?

events.ucalgary.ca

The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high. We can see that in Canada's job market today. And there's a lesson for those who view Alberta separatism as a costless protest vote. It isn't. My latest for @TheHubCanada: thehub.ca/2026/02/19/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

How the risk of separation could cost Alberta thousands of jobs

The hidden costs of political uncertainty are high

thehub.ca

Canada has a productivity problem. Research can help. A new piece from me in @nationalpost on a broad partnership to build new tools, evidence, and talent to raise living standards and strengthen prosperity for decades to come. nationalpost.com/opinion/can... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Trevor Tombe: Canada has a productivity problem. Research is how we fix it

nationalpost.com

Thrilled for the 7th event in @policy_school’s Canada’s Productivity Initiative in partnership with Rotman, featuring insight from Carolyn Rogers, Bill Morneau, Susan Black, Glenda Crisp, and so many more. Livestream available: community.rotman.utoronto.ca/events/s/sp... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

Rising separatist sentiment could come with real risks to jobs and income. I estimate nearly 2 million jobs depend on interprovincial trade with Alberta and Quebec. My latest for @TheHubCanada here: thehub.ca/2026/02/04/... #cdnecon #cdnpoli

New population projections from Statistics Canada suggest that Alberta may become the third largest province within a decade, although much depends on the level of interprovincial migration. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-qu... #cdnecon #cdnpoli