Turan Orujlu

@turanorujlu.bsky.social

PhD Student @unituebingen.bsky.social. Interested in intuitive physics, world models, causality, and reinforcement learning.

We use eccentricity (distance from the center of the retina) as a stand-in for β, and recover the sigmoidal BC (bipolar cell) → RGC (retinal ganglion cell) transfer curve (stand-in for mechanism f) with the help of β and V interventions.

Mean change in RGC membrane potential against bipolar-cell clamp voltage, from −70 mV to −20 mV. Points with error bars trace a sigmoid rising from about −0.29 mV to about +0.46 mV, with a least-squares affine-tanh guide curve through them and a midpoint near −37 mV.

Positive result: with observational + β-node + V-node interventions, the kernels α, {φ_i}, Γ are identifiable. We validate this in a retina simulator. Retina is a natural POSCM: cell type co-determines both wiring and synapses, and the laminar circuit supplies the ordering τ.

We provide both positive and negative identification results: Negative: With no β-level interventions, α, {φ_i}, and Γ are non-identifiable. V-level data cannot break a symmetry that lives in Phase I.

We show the power of edge interventions in POSCMs using the distributive law of multiplication. x·(y+z) and x·y+x·z agree under every node intervention do(x,y,z) when the internal ops are latent. Perturb one channel of x: LHS 3·(1+1)=6, RHS 3·1+2·1=5. Graphs are separated.

Two computation graphs for the same output W. On the left, W = x·(y+z) via one addition and one multiplication. On the right, W = (x·y)+(x·z) via two multiplications. An edge intervention setting x′=3 on a single channel yields W=6 on the left and W=5 on the right, while every node intervention leaves the two indistinguishable.

Generation happens in two phases: Phase I: A_ji ← α(β_j), then β_i ← φ_i(β_pa) Phase II: f_i ← Γ(β_i, Pa(i)), then V_i ← f_i(V_pa) The augmented graph β₁→A₁₂→β₂→… stays acyclic. SCMs are the degenerate case A ~ δ_A*, f ~ δ_f*.

POSCM's constituent parts (context β, structure A, mechanisms f, values V) are jointly generated and can be partially observed via noisy channels. Furthermore, context shapes wiring (A), wiring shapes context. To avoid circularity, we impose generation over an exogenous order τ.

Bild

UAI 2026 paper: A genetic perturbation can change the connectome, a new policy can rewire economic links between firms. In each case, interventions change the graph itself which standard SCMs treat as fixed. We tackle this in Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs).

Expanded DAG for a 3-node POSCM under ordered generation. An exogenous ordering τ feeds context variables β₁, β₂, β₃; each βᵢ generates adjacency variables A_ji, which gate the value channels between endogenous variables V₁, V₂, V₃ and also feed the mechanism variables f₁, f₂, f₃. Phase I covers structure and context generation; Phase II covers mechanism assignment and value generation.

UAI 2026 paper: A genetic perturbation can change the connectome, a new policy can rewire economic links between firms. In each case, interventions change the graph itself which standard SCMs treat as fixed. We tackle this in Partially Observed Structural Causal Models (POSCMs).

Expanded DAG for a 3-node POSCM under ordered generation. An exogenous ordering τ feeds context variables β₁, β₂, β₃; each βᵢ generates adjacency variables A_ji, which gate the value channels between endogenous variables V₁, V₂, V₃ and also feed the mechanism variables f₁, f₂, f₃. Phase I covers structure and context generation; Phase II covers mechanism assignment and value generation.

Reframing attention as an RL problem for causal discovery AI models like GNNs & Transformers can struggle with dynamic causal reasoning. Our work introduces the Causal Process Model (CPM), which reframes attention as an RL problem. Agents dynamically build sparse causal graphs.